Friday, October 09, 2009
NNVC chart analysis
Here is a Monthly chart of NNVC. I started buying this stock way on the left side of the time line, in August, 2005, at or below 10c a share. I sold some as it started coming down off of its March, 2006 peak, but as you all know, am holding tightly my remaining shares.
I have removed all of my usual studies from this chart, save one, the ATR. Throughout the five or so years shown above, there have been two major ATR Buy Signals. The first ATR Buy Signal was October, 2005, where NNVC opened the month at 13c per share and ran to $3.75 in the next six months.
The second ATR Buy Signal occurred in May, 2008. NNVC opened that month at 66c per share and ran to $1.78 in less then two months.
The view from the Monthly chart shows that NNVC has basically been basing sideways for the past two years, frustrating both the Longs and Shorts. One of these months, in my opinion probably sooner rather then later, NNVC will trigger a third major ATR Buy Signal. From current levels and based upon the first two ATR Buys, minimum expectations are for a 200% pop, with the possibility of ten times that.
On the down side, the Monthly chart shows a two year long base of support just above 50c a share. From current prices, that's a risk of about 33%, projected against apparent potential gains of between 200% and 2,000%.
That is my long-term technical analysis of NNVC. On the fundamental side, there are now a host of potential catalysts that can propel NNVC higher, triggering the ATR Buy Signal. What can change this scenario? None of the potential catalysts occur, there is no pop, no ATR Signal and NNVC remains stagnant for another two years. What are the probabilities of no news-related catalysts? In my view, zero.
I'll try to arrange another Fireside Chat with Dr. Seymour in the near future to cover NNVC's fundamental story. In the meantime, keep in mind Napoleon Hill's famous book, Be Patient [sic] and Grow Rich.