Friday, October 09, 2009

NNVC chart analysis


Here is a Monthly chart of NNVC. I started buying this stock way on the left side of the time line, in August, 2005, at or below 10c a share. I sold some as it started coming down off of its March, 2006 peak, but as you all know, am holding tightly my remaining shares.

I have removed all of my usual studies from this chart, save one, the ATR. Throughout the five or so years shown above, there have been two major ATR Buy Signals. The first ATR Buy Signal was October, 2005, where NNVC opened the month at 13c per share and ran to $3.75 in the next six months.

The second ATR Buy Signal occurred in May, 2008. NNVC opened that month at 66c per share and ran to $1.78 in less then two months.

The view from the Monthly chart shows that NNVC has basically been basing sideways for the past two years, frustrating both the Longs and Shorts. One of these months, in my opinion probably sooner rather then later, NNVC will trigger a third major ATR Buy Signal. From current levels and based upon the first two ATR Buys, minimum expectations are for a 200% pop, with the possibility of ten times that.

On the down side, the Monthly chart shows a two year long base of support just above 50c a share. From current prices, that's a risk of about 33%, projected against apparent potential gains of between 200% and 2,000%.

That is my long-term technical analysis of NNVC. On the fundamental side, there are now a host of potential catalysts that can propel NNVC higher, triggering the ATR Buy Signal. What can change this scenario? None of the potential catalysts occur, there is no pop, no ATR Signal and NNVC remains stagnant for another two years. What are the probabilities of no news-related catalysts? In my view, zero.

I'll try to arrange another Fireside Chat with Dr. Seymour in the near future to cover NNVC's fundamental story. In the meantime, keep in mind Napoleon Hill's famous book, Be Patient [sic] and Grow Rich.


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15 comments:

Anonymous said...

Allan, LQD is breaking down. Do you think its a sign of imminent long awaited strong correction of the markets ? Lili

Anonymous said...

Wish i'm still holding my previous positions in cvm, gfre, tgb, lwlg ...
than only with nnvc
Sure big difference
Shall wait and see
Thanks Allan
Serge

Anonymous said...

Thanks for that update. much appreciated

Anonymous said...

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/351329/It's-a-V!-Recovery-%22A-Lot-Stronger%22-Than-Consensus-ECRI's-Achuthan-Says;_ylt=AsetjikOnom0JXCviZHWW027YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTE2MzBubDBlBHBvcwMxMQRzZWMDdG9wU3RvcmllcwRzbGsDaXRzYXZyZWNvdmVy?tickers=%5EDJI,%5EGSPC,SPY,DIA,TBT,TLT&sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=

rob g said...

serge
take a look at cxm. starting to move again. traded big volume today. news out by oct 14 on a diabetic foot ulcer product. good risk reward imo.

violinbf said...

NNVC...obviously the technology is very exciting, results of the independant research studies have proven there is amazing potental for viricides.

However, without an NDA and human clinical trials, the stock will not be going anywhere. Why hasn't the management been on the ball with that?

I am holding my position like a lottery ticket, because that is what this is. I don't think the management knows how to market this technology effectively.

Anonymous said...

Screw NNVC, where's the women?

Anonymous said...

Allan has all the women !!!

Allan said...

violinbf: by the time their first NDA is filed the company
will have a high profile partner and will be above $3.00 per share. If you wait until then to buy, you will still make a fortune. I personally think it's much more exciting owning it now, before NNVC is a household word.

Anonymous said...

Allan, where are the women ???

Anonymous said...

NNVC is already a household word here: SCAM! IMO,the reason there are no partners to date, is the road from their initial results and having a working product is one with many curves and pits. Of course a near 0 base leaves little risk for those under .10. Buying at this price is pure casino gamble. Any researcher knows initial results in the abstract rarely work in the complex animal/human system. and that is why so little comes from promising drugs and treatments. Best way to play it, is like Alan, bring you cost base to 0. by selling and buying at. 5 or lower where the price is heading short term, then sell into every pop.

Edwardo said...

The site at the link below is probably known to the denizens of this blog, but on the off chance it isn't:

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=4102

khalid said...

Edwardo:
thanks.

Anonymous said...

The measured move shows that NNVC will bottom next 1-2 months, then start a bullish run to $4+ by July 2010. Thanks for sharing, Rich

Kirk said...

I bought some at 45¢ with an "auto buy" limit order.

I got the price level from the chart placing it just above where I thought some monkey business could take place...
It seems we had a gaggle of monkeys today as it is unusual to make this much on a stock trade in an hour!