I sent out a Fibonacci 5 Alerts to my subscribers yesterday because the intraday trend model charts were all pointing hard down and finally getting in sync with the SPX Daily and Weekly Trend Models. Here is a portrait of the dominant down trend:
That Sell signal came on April 27 at about 1183 on the SPX. 120 points lower, it looks like the real deal. But you never know for sure, in other words, if it was easy, everyone would be doing it.
A Tradable Edge
Whoa, not so fast Lone Ranger. My experience tells me if it was easy, it would be dismissed by market players everywhere as too good to be true. The past few days I posted excerpts from my Trend Tables. Those weren't hand-picked examples of successful trades, those were 23 randomly chosen stocks, random insofar as I am lazy and those were easiest to crop off and excerpt, in all of their winning and losing ways. Those along with the above SPX chart consists of the heart and soul of my trend following trading models.
They are not the holy grail of trading, but they do constitute a tradable edge. I have maintained from the beginning, you can't always get what you want, but if you try sometimes you just might find you get what you need. That is what I tried to so tenaciously show off here over the course of the past five months. I know some of you get it because I've saved your testimonial emails and others are slowly getting it because I've saved all of your most basic questions and then light bulbs going off too. I learn from you just as I hope you are learning from me.
Maybe its too early to call this Trend Following Trading Models experiment a success, if you were like me, heavily short into yesterday's carnage, you are getting the idea of how a tradable edge works and how much stress, angst and anxiety such an approach is able to expunge and turn into hard core profits.
As for NNVC, here is the last few sentences of my Weekend Update, just sent out to subscribers:
My only exception to this rule [Respect the Trends] has been NNVC and you all know how well that stubbornness has paid off.....NOT. Nonetheless, my reasons for buying and holding NNVC are as strong as ever and I have not sold a single share. One of these days, from a beach in Hawaii, I will point with pride at this strategy before passing out drunk in the surf. If you see me, please pull me back onto the sand. Thank you very much.