Wednesday, June 02, 2010

NNVC - update

There are a couple ways to assess NNVC's recent price performance.  First, a deep retracement of the 200% run-up of the past six months.  Alternatively, you can look at the Sell (or Exit) signal on the daily trend on May 17 @ $2.03 and think, "Damn, maybe there is something to these Trend Models."

 NNVC Daily Trend Model w/EW Analysis

NNVC Weekly Trend Model w/EW Analysis


Note the positive spin inherent in both assessments.  Why?

Technically, both above charts are in major bullish trends.

Fundamentally, we have yesterday's news from the lab of Eva Harris,
....that its [NNVC] anti-Dengue drug candidates demonstrated significant efficacy in the recently completed preliminary cell culture studies. The studies were performed in the laboratory of Dr. Eva Harris, Professor of Infectious Diseases at the University of California, Berkeley (UC Berkeley).
This could be a prelude to potentially blockbuster news from follow-on animal studies on Dengue:
...dengue hemorrhagic fever and dengue shock syndrome are emerging as serious global health problems. Dengue is endemic throughout much of the world and now threatens over 3 billion people world-wide or 40% of the world’s population. Because of its world-wide distribution, dengue is considered an emerging threat in the United States. Dengue is officially considered a “neglected tropical disease” by the World Health Organization.
This one product for NNVC could be worth a significant multiple of it's current market cap, not to mention the confirmation of their anti-viral platform that then will be focused on any number of viral plagues that face humanity.   In other words, the next news from the lab could very well be headlines news in every medical research facility in the world and all from this obscure little company that is not yet on the radar screen of most of the investment world.  When it gets there, expect NNVC's market cap to be measured in the Billions, not Millions, with share prices well above multiples of current levels.


A

32 comments:

Anonymous said...

I am moving all in on NNVC

Allan said...

What is so fascinating about investor psychology is that most readers will likely follow your lead.....but at much higher prices. Just exactly what piece of news will herald such an event is unclear, but what is clear are the irons in the fire from which such a news-driven market event will arise.

Anonymous said...

we are on track to be a millionaire !!!

Anonymous said...

Millionaires and 'all in', huh? Riggggghhtttt. You all have a lot to learn about the way stocks act. So what happens when it drops below a buck?

Anonymous said...

NNVC will become like deer nuts
theyre both under a buck.

Anonymous said...

The weekly chart looks like it wants to form a giant triangle flag between the 2.60 top and a 1.40 bottom,with the center balance point at 2.00 area.

The previous lows in price action with NNVC have all been followed by a giant blast Upward.
If that makes for good odds....a stock trading behavior with a good chance to offer quick blast up profits for a day or two,once it finishes its current bottoming.(my guess is the 1.40 area) might make for a nice quick trade to target 2.00 and out.

just a portion trade

Anonymous said...

So Dick Oops! I mean Ano,what happens when it hits three bucks? Do you apologize for being a miserable short and telling lies or do we get more ifinite wisdom?

Anonymous said...

Their web site looks like it was designed by a 10-year-old, and all of the information on their trials is over 3 years old:

http://nanoviricides.com/products.html

Really unprofessional and not at all confidence inspiring to potential new investors...

Anonymous said...

Dear Allan, while back you said there would come a time when you would discuss beyond the trading shambles places we should go with our money. ... Lookin like time draws nigh: US Mint Out Of Not Only Silver But Gold American Eagles As Well


robert plant - calling to you

Anonymous said...

Any idea when the analysis of the results of the anti-HIV testing of NNVC's HIV drug candidate nanoviricides will be complete?

Also, according to the 10-Q, the company currently has ~$8m in cash which will see them thru Dec 2011 and fund ONE pre-IND study. The company anticipates needing another $5M-$10M in the next 18 months to fund ONE IND filing. The company ALSO anticipates incurring $10M-$15M to construct or obtain facilities to support the ONE IND previously noted.

Dude, is this company for real? I admit, the technology is fascinating and exudes real promise. However, the people running the company seem more interested in enriching themselves. Shareholders are gonna get hosed while the private investors make profit lending money for heavily discounted commone shares and then sell them to the retail investors. The company is going to do all it can to keep the private investors happy so will gladly pump the stock price so that the funder has a market to dump into. In the end, the retail investors get left holding the bag until the first FDA approval which will be several YEARS!!

This stock is for trading only or for investors with at 5 year MINIMUM horizon.

nmbr1

PENN STATE Eric said...

Can't argue the website comment! NNVCs website is so half-ass, my mom could do better designing it and keeping it current. Otherwise, the trends have been pretty clear if you've been following long enough - if you're willing to play with your shares you can make quick grabs up and buy more on the retractions.

Anonymous said...

Enron and Worldcom have the fanciest website ever and see what happened ...

Anonymous said...

Sorry guys..but I am negative today.

The web-site does not need a rocket scientist to update it.

The good Doc is busy..sure..a great man..but please..

A web-site that is current, can, may, generate new investors and they keep on saying that there are legal matters and so on..so on...

I am wondering? Do we believe in faith alone?

Liam

Anonymous said...

Web-site??? Pleeeeease.

Save to say that when riding a bull the last thing you are worried about is the color of your friggin socks.

Skipper

Anonymous said...

If your socks are bright..it might generate the bull's attention!

so ..yes, the color of your socks are important!

Liam

Anonymous said...

My entry into the stock market was in early 2007. I invested in a company that had a nice looking website(GEMINI EXPLORATIONS INC). Then promply watch my cash go bye bye! Fancy websites mean nothing to my stock picks now!!

Anonymous said...

you don't wear boots? You might have more to worry about.

Anonymous said...

Though I am in a mood..I must admit your boot comment is pretty good!

And yes..I do have a lot to worry about!

Website still should reflect what it represents...a spectacular Company!

That is my way....perfection!

Liam

Anonymous said...

A nice web site may or may not reflect a well run company. However, a crappy web site is ALWAYS a warning sign, and the NNVC site is as crappy as they come. All of the so-called "future" milestones are in the year 2007. Pathetic.

Anonymous said...

Three weeks ago, I sold my NNVC at an average price of $2.30

I stated in Allan's Blog two weeks ago that I would be buying(ie.edging in) at/near the first Resistance level of $1.70 and then again at/near the $1.50 Resistance level.

I believe NNVC is now on its way up and I will be adding more as it rises particularly on volume.

I like this stock and its story but believe in trading it via technical analysis,particularly candlesticks.Watch the volume as it usually precedes price movements.

Good Luck to all Longs.

H.

Anonymous said...

H,

You seem so sure it was going back to 1.50

Why so positive?

Liam

Anonymous said...

Allan,
I have a cost basis of about 60 cents and 10000 shares of NNVC, if it keeps going down, is it prudent to sell and buy back in? Im not sure I want to sell...

Allan said...

I hear you. How many times were you tempted to sell on the road up from 60c? If you follow the trend models, you can allocate some portion, maybe 25%, or even 50% of your shares for trading consistent with the models. Otherwise, standing pat for the big payoff is what I am doing.

seattlesdailydaydream@blogspot.com said...

That sounds prudent, as always, thanks! Hawaii, here we come...eventually! :)

Anonymous said...

Allan is right. It's a good idea to sell shares on any runup in this stock.

It always goes right back down.

Anonymous said...

Liam,

NNVC looked toppish when it was in the $2.30+ range so I sold. It then dropped 6 days in a row. On the 7th day,it showed good strength after hitting a low of $1.56 and formed a new support level of $1.60. which still holds(although it dipped to $1.46).

Looking at the chart today(June 4th at 11.57am) if it closes at $1.72 or higher the uptrend is very much intact. The downside over the next few weeks could be $1.10 if it breaks the $1.46 recent low.There is support at the $1.60 and $1.50 levels.

It is currently trading on low volume in a very weak market so the stock is holding up fairly well.

I bought a bit today- my average cost is $1.75- somewhat higher than the current market as I purchased on that big volume 7th day.No one said it was easy!

I believe if it breaks $1.80 on strong volume NNVC could break the previous high of $2.64.

Good Luck,

H.

Anonymous said...

H,

Thank you so!

I can not read the charts very well, and I appreciate Allan and all the seasoned traders input.

I would like to ask you a question. In your opinion, do you think NNVC is over valued at this time?

liam

Anonymous said...

H,

Just one more thing

I always thought NNVC was in a league of its own and did not necessarily move with the market in general. Gee..if it goes back to .70, what can I say! I just love this stock!

Liam

ps: good luck to you too.

Anonymous said...

Liam,

I have been buying so I believe the stock has upside providing it holds the $1.50-$1.60 levels.

If you do not want to lose much below the current level, have a stop ( sell price) in mind and reduce your holdings once triggered.

In the meantime just relax.

H.

Anonymous said...

H,

I am relaxed!

Really..thanks for your response.

You are one of the good guys.

Liam

Anonymous said...

I am seeing something important about the midway s/r area of 2.00

and the potential of timing that coincides with the greater market.... going down, finishing its 5 waves down, expecting an ABC rally correction.... watching NNVC move upward with the rally....timing and price... what might happen at the 2.00 area of resistance. another move down ,if the greater market takes a dive ? I'll want to be cautious about All my stocks at this point, and for the first time,NNVC too.
I plan to place a trailing stop if NNVC hits the 2.00 mark in any rally.not sure how much I'll sell.but I wont feel good doing it.

But I'm watching the greater market indexes to see what they do in the coming weeks,how far they recover to...38%,50% Fib, the 200 MA, somewhere in that zone.
If NNVC is higher than 2.00 at that time, I might sell there or trail stop at 2.00 on 1/3 or 1/2 my position. (but my position is 22,000 shares, so I can sell a few.)

Watch the global news and geo-politics now,for the next month or two. Things look like theyre heating up.

Anonymous said...

Annon,

If I see $2.00 in NNVC I will sell 1/2 my position.

But will we see it?

Liam