Wednesday, June 09, 2010

SPXU_240m Trading Model

SPXU is a highly leveraged inverse ETF for the S&P 500. Below is my SPXU_240m Trend Model (low volatility settings) with year-to-date trading signals:

I like the 240 minute time frame as a bridge between Hourly and Daily time periods, working both as a confirmation of hourly signals and a heads-up for pending daily signals.  On the price axis, the navy highlighted price level of 34.57 is where the current LONG trend will flip SHORT. 

Disclaimer:  Trading is a tough game and is not for everyone.  These Trend Models are just one way to gain an edge in trading and that is all they are, an edge.  As simple as the application of  simple trend line  is to market directional analysis, execution and discipline are also key ingredients in this, or any trading system.  Again, I point to my own fallibility, i.e ignoring the NNVC Sell Signal at $2.03 on May 17 as an example of just how difficult trend following can be if you don't have the discipline to practice what you preach.  My answer to myself is that so what if I miss one gap-up by being out of this stock, the system will always get you back in for the remainder of the run.  To which I reply, but Allan, by exiting the stock you bank taxable gains which will bite you come tax time. My response to that, but when I buy back in I get a stepped-up basis.  To which I say, now this Disclaimer is longer then the original post.  Reply: You forgot to add that you are talking to yourself again.

Ergo: "Disclaimer."

1 comment:

YYloger said...

Lovely conversation with self ;-)