Wednesday, December 30, 2009

Trading system update & news


First, the Hourly and Daily trading charts of TZA:



Hourly  on a fresh BUY




Daily holding SHORT from early December
Note that a close today above 10.05 would be a fresh BUY


Now a few examples of how this trading system looks across other tradables, specifically, Crude Oil, including a Crude Oil ETF that trades options:




USO Daily



USO Hourly



UCO Hourly



UCO Daily


UCO: The investment will seek to replicate, net of expenses, twice the daily performance of the Dow Jones UBS Crude Oil Sub-Index. The fund normally invests assets in financial instruments with economic characteristics twice the return of the index. It may employ leveraged investment techniques in seeking its investment objective.


Allan's Trading Notes

We have developed (or stumbled upon) an excellent trend following algorithm that appears to be very profitable across a wide cross-section of tradables.  I am focusing on the most active, liquid and volatile leveraged ETF's for my trading. Similarly, almost all of these have options available should the average winning trade percentage be high enough to suggest trading the signal with options. 

The pattern emerging across this universe of ETF's is that for every two trades, one is a whipsaw for a modest percentage loss and one is a solid trend trade for a sizable percentage gain.  

It is evident from your comments, questions and emails that these charts and the embedded trading system are something unique to my hardware and software set-ups  and that most of you are unable to replicate this on your own.  I am seriously considering disseminating these signals on a real time basis....it's that good!  If there is enough interest I can do this for a nominal monthly fee that would pale in comparison to the rewards inherent in trading even a single ETF along the lines of the above annotated signals.  You folks will have to do the math on our own, its not brain surgery.  My only hesitation is my time commitment, each day, every day, all day. Ergo the small fee.

Which brings me to this:  If anyone knows how to write an iPhone App or Twitter automated mail mailing (or"twitting" if you will), send me private email: apharris@mac.com


A

20 comments:

Allan said...

I wanted to post this update in a timely manner because of the fresh TZA signal. As a result, I left off a discussion of combining the Hourly and Daily signals, something along the lines of only trading the Hourly signals that are in the same direction as the Daily signals. This is yielding even better results, although I have not back-tested this variation far enough yet for the apparent success to be definitive. Nonetheless, thus far It does seem to be a valid logical and statistical premise.

A

Jeff said...

Depending on the monthly fee (hopefully it's not $elevendy-billion/month), I would be interested in this service.

BTW, I agree with the hourly/daily signal idea. Actually, it reminds me a bit of the Market Club strategy of trading daily/weekly signals in the direction of weekly/monthly trends respectively. I have looked at it before, and it seems to be a great filter for many whipsaws. I have not tracked the results like you are doing, but I just kind of "eyeballed" a couple of charts and it appears effective.

Allan said...

Re: New service

If I do this, it will be for both a nominal and not so nominal fee. Those that already know me and have been following along will be very little, those who come later, 90 days down the road by the time of a real time verifiable track record is available, those folks will pay the going rate, based on success to date.

Anonymous said...

Checking in from New Orleans

Allan,

Have backtested TZA with the ATR trailing stop system using a 3 multiplier and 21 day period for 2009. Very good for trend followers that do not trade every day.
Had five trade signals for the entire year yielding over 200% return. This mechanical system really works!! Thanks again.

Anonymous said...

Allan,

Your too kind.

You say 'we've developed/stumbled upon' but in fact its been your creativity/boldness that has revealed this versatile little system.

Suggestion: If you get this paid portion ball rolling, we should have a brainstorming aspect among subscribers for future innovations to this system and beyond.


Although many ideas may prove to be fruitless, networking is potentially powerful and something may eventually win your approval.

Lucky Luciano

CROSSROADS

Anonymous said...

Allan,
Thanks for your hard work and dedication to this blog. i check back frequently during the day to see meaningful charts and signals that make sense. Mechanical trading is the wave of today and the future. I would be very interested in real time updates. Thanks Allan

Rick
City Of The Angels
Los Angeles CA

Allan said...

Big Easy:

Had five trade signals for the entire year yielding over 200%

Please contact me: apharris@mac.com

I would like to compare notes.

Anonymous said...

Allan,

Just started trading QLD with real money taking daily ATR signals in the direction of the weekly ATR. Back tested since January 1, 2009 with good results. Will keep you posted with real money results.

Eric
Milwaukee

Jeff said...

Re: Fee structure

That seems fair. I am interested to see how this develops.

Anonymous said...

how can i get atr signals?
pls accept me here as a newbie

Anonymous said...

I think you should have a quiz that goes along with getting access to this service...

There are so many posts from people that make no effort to read or spend even a minimal amount of time/effort to search the blog for answers to simple questions. A quick test of basic ideas, overall framework, etc. so you (and your readers) aren't inundated with the same questions and obvious laziness over and over.

Allan said...

THANK YOU!
THANK YOU!
THANK YOU!

There is a great tool in the upper left hand corner of the blog, it's a SEARCH box. A lot of questions that are asked can be answered and answered with a whole lot more detail, simply by making use of this tool.

A

CDD13 said...

My pleasure... Had to be said.

Can you tell me how to use the Search box? j/k

b said...

Alan,

Thanks again. I'm one who would be interested. Been following your thinking and applying your ideas. Count me in if and when you decide to do instant updates. I think you can also text to multiple numbers at one time, would simply your life immensely.

bob

Anonymous said...

I didn't mean to flame it here
All what i was asking was a link to atr signal...
search box in the corner didn't help

N.B. i'm brand new to this blog and not a continous reader but i shall be hopefully

Anonymous said...

I just wish someone would explain exactly how to use this system that Eric has been testing. In detail. I would gladly pay whatever for the lesson. I am losing more than making, questioning myself if I have what it takes to be a trader.

Am a Market Club member, but I have noticed that just because it triggers green weekly, does not necessarily mean it is in an upward trend. Also I am bearish about this market, so I do not trust hanging on to stocks for the long term. Is this a mistake?
Hope I,The Minnow, will not be shot down amoung the Beautiful Sailfish.

Read the blog for a while..find Allan is great,not asking any favors for the new trader..will pay whatever is asked for this service..

Guess I feel good being here with the big traders.

Happy New Year to all.

Thanks,
Paul

Allan said...

Paul:

Most approaches to market analysis and trading make success a complicated, elusive and ultimately futile ambition.

One of my main motivations for this blog and for my proposed new service, is to make success a simple, tangible and satisfying end, in and of itself.

As someone posted recently, it's not about being right, its about making money.

You've just convinced me to offer the service. Give me a few days to structure things in my mind before setting out the description, logistics and costs. Some interesting ideas have already come in and I welcome suggestions, either published as a comment here, or to my private email address:

apharris@mac.com


A

Anonymous said...

Happy New Year Allan and all readers,

Please consider Skype as a free and uncomplicated method to disseminate your real time calls to a select group of followers. Once subscribed you are able to add contacts at will and easily send a written or verbal message easily and quickly. Computer to computer is totally free. Skype lights up with the name of the sender when a new message is received and waiting. You may also send or share pictures of your charts, etc. with just a few clicks. I think Skype is terrific and use it daily to keep in touch with fellow traders over the Skype network. I have no financial or other interest in Skype, other than being a satisfied customer. I welcome comments from readers of this blog as to whether this is a good suggestion or not.
Warmest regards from NYC, joe

Anonymous said...

Count me on this. Been a follower of your methods for a few years and am very impressed both by your creative thinking and your enthusiasm for the "art" of trading.

Paul

Anonymous said...

Been reading you daily since July.
Enlightening, the real deal.
Doesn't get better than that.

AM