Monday, December 21, 2009

GLD (time frames)


GLD Daily - Bullish Wave 5 set-up



GLD 60 minute


GLD 5 minute


Allan's trading notes

A good question from Lucky deserves a graphically annotated response.  Based on the Daily chart, GLD should be finding support in here and resume its uptrend any day now.  In fact, we can see an Advanced GET Type #1 Mechanical Buy Signal being set up (aka "Wave 5 Buy Signal").

This view is supported by the 60 minute chart which is counting a completed 5 waves down, although the ATR trend is still short.

The 5 minute chart is more ominous.  It is suggesting GLD is in the midst of an impulse wave down.  That's why I posted the table of GLD lows from last week.  If 107.04 doesn't hold, then I am giving a whole lot more weight to the 5 minute analysis.

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

Allan - your blog just gets better and better thanks for your hard work...So I assume you are looking at long GLD near the close or soon?

Mike

Allan said...

Mike,

I am short gold, pursuant to ATR which is my trend model and trumps all other analysis. The EW perspective allows me to anticipate an imminent BUY, which would cause me to exit my short and go long, but only upon an ATR trigger.

A

Anonymous said...

Thanks Allan - on a different note, your model suggests a short on the SPY at or near the close as you seem to suggest this move is getting tired...is that correct? Mike

Allan said...

Re: SPY trade

My new trading method for the "TZA Model" generated a BUY on the SPY for entry late last Friday and exit late today.

Anonymous said...

For what its worth,I'm guessing the counterpoint view (bullish) on gold would be that it is undergoing an A-B-C type correction,as it should,currently undergoing the wave B part,looking at a target area of 112.. to Fail there.....and then wave C dropping further down a stretch to hold around the 100 area .........and completion of the correction.
Set up would be to wait for the wave c to complete around 100 area,and a timing zone around first week of january to enter Long.

This is not trading advise, just the bullish outlook.

Anonymous said...

....and if this were to play out as a bullish reversal ,the timing of full moon around dec 31-jan 3,would be ideal as a "reversal" Time.
This being said for those who see the past years history of big swings happening at the full moon times. (and sometimes new moon)

march3, june3, july 3, aug 3 (prechters warning) august 17 (new moon) sept 2, oct.2, oct 19 (new moon) nov.2,nov.16 (new moon) dec. 2,...right down to this cgharts wave 5 completion dec.18 (new moon) and minor swing reversal.
next one coming ....dec 30 - jan 3 time zone. full moon,reversal.