Thursday, December 17, 2009

Forecast preempted

Time preempted much of what I had been preparing for my 2010 forecast. What many of you took as a snide, cynical or even clever play on Time magazine's Person of the Year, was indeed my 2010 Forecast Blog.  I had disclosed earlier that NNVC was my Stock of the Year for 2010, so all that's left to present are the nascent bearish wedges across the board in all asset classes to make my forecast essay complete.  They're coming.

From EWI's short term update (click on any of their ads on this page for more info), last night:
"News weeklies most often put the most pressing events of the day on their covers. By the time a financial trend has been in force so long, or is of such a magnitude that it makes it onto the cover of Time or Newsweek, it usually means that trend is near the point of exhaustion and ready to reverse. Montgomery says that trends can continue for a month or so after the cover appears, but a year later the trend will have appreciably reversed, with about an 80%-85% success rate. Time’s Person of the Year has a particularly good track record of reflecting a trends end.
"One of the more famous Person of the Year financial covers was Jeff Bezos of Amazon.com in 1999. That one occurred almost simultaneous to the stock’s top on December 9, 1999 at 113.00. Amazon declined 95% to a low at 5.51 in October 2001. Andy Grove of Intel was Time’s 1997 Person of the Year and that stock languished through August of the next year before finally taking off. Other financially-related Persons of the Year include Ted Turner (1991), who founded CNN. Turner Broadcasting stock was down over 7% the following year."

ATR Sell on Daily close beneath 10285


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2 comments:

Holly20 said...

Thanks Allan. My sell signal on Daily agrees with a close under 10,290.

Allan said...

Re: Glenn Neely

He sent out an "Emergency Alert" this morning to his subscribers. I do not have permission (yet) to post it.

Nonetheless, here is a recent 22 minute interview by Glenn (with link to his site where you can buy his current thoughts which compelled today's Alert):

http://www.neowave.com/company-nov2009interview.asp