Tuesday, September 22, 2009

Tuesday Afternoon

Here is a 60 minute SPX chart with current uptrend and triggers for a sell should the stops be hit:


Below is the same 60 minute chart for AIG, which triggered SHORT today:


Both of these above charts include wave counts and False Bar Stochastics that add forecasting hints, but for trading purposes they are not nearly as powerful as the trend models.



GS - Hourly



Goldman Sachs has become the poster boy for financial fraud and profit. As the above chart illustrates, it is setting up a mechanical Type II Sell Signal in Advanced GET. I used to base the triggers on trend regression channels, but now use Blue Wave and/or ATR to time entries. In any case, with both the SPX and GS precariously close to issuing Sells, it is hard to imagine one triggering without the other. Whichever goes first, bodes ill for them both.


GLD - Hourly




I'm aware that a lot of traders are liking Gold in here, but I remain skeptical. First, bullish sentiment is up around 90% Bulls. If that is not enough, the above chart suggests a reluctant uptrend......nothing impulsive about it.


RUT - 240 minute



Finally, a fresh look at the RUT index discussed a few days ago. Uptrend still in tact, but Sell threshold levels not far below.


A

5 comments:

Dirk said...

Allan,
I am not a 'trader' or even 'trender' per se.

I had two subscriptions to Louis Navellier, who gives great buy advice, but virtually no sell advice. I got very lucky and just felt that things were not good back at the end of 2007 in Feb 2008 decided to sell ALL my securities and mutual funds, except ESRX, and just let the cash sit in my IRA for a while. I just sold ESRX for 120% gain over two years - probably peanuts for you, but that gives you an idea of my "level" - level zero.

Anyway, best 'gut move' I ever made. I only lost about 8% of the total value of my account vs 68% in March 2009 if I would have followed Louis' newsletters through that period. Can you say CROX? or FSYS?

Anyway, as a math, physics, statistics and fractals&chaos educated guy I am fascinated by the charts, info and personal insights in your blog but have absolutely no way to implement it, unless someone using your system was willing to manage my assets, hint, hint.

I own a company that does sound for rock concert tours, I love it, never want to retire, but that keeps me pretty damn busy.

At this point the only security I am holding is 10K of NNVC (@$.63ea) and you can count on me to support the karma tithe WHEN (not if) that works out. Although I can't PROVE that your analysis of the current market is right, in my gut I can feel it like I did in Feb08.

If you ever have simple long-term advice for knuckleheads like me (like nnvc); I and my fellow knuckleheads would be very appreciative, and of course it would help your karma tithe as well.

PS - I canceled my Blue Chip and Emerging Growth subscriptions - LOL

Thanks for sharing what you do and reading to my comment,
Dirk

Anonymous said...

Dirk,

I can truly relate to your comments!(similar experience).

I'll let Allan speak for himself, but I suspect he would tell us both to exploit Navellier's quant stock picking model and trade them using MARKETCLUB and or BWT software :-)

I'm a firm believer in a "rule based strategy" approach that Allan uses. In the long run I think that will outperform even the most intelligent market gurus.

In my quest to have someone like Allan to hold my hand, I recently looked into Jon Markman's service. (He has fascinating rule based approach also).

However, when Investorplace told me they don't publish investment track records, I became weary of giving him a try. (I've found most investment newsletters to be B.S. in the past).

In the end, the hard truth is we may be forced to take Allan's approach. Screw the newsletters and start thinking for ourselves.

Mentor Seeker

Christopher said...

Allan, have tried BWT other new products, autotrader, etc.?

Allan said...

Dirk:

I am fascinated by the charts, info and personal insights in your blog but have absolutely no way to implement it, unless someone using your system was willing to manage my assets, hint, hint.

Actually such is already in place, email me if you want to know more: apharris@mac.com

If you ever have simple long-term advice for knuckleheads like me (like nnvc); I and my fellow knuckleheads would be very appreciative, and of course it would help your karma tithe as well.

A comment here a few days ago suggested using the Monthly ATR system to move money in and out of equities a couple times a year, without stress yet with great results. If you're looking for hand-holding, that's as good an idea as there is.

Allan said...

Allan, have tried BWT other new products, autotrader, etc.?

Unfortunately, my platform (eSignal) is not compatible with BW autotrader.