Recent rally were broad based with heavy volume. Technically speaking, it is a buy at dips setup for most bullish chart patterns. Especially the leaders become leaders in price again, for example, GOOG/BIDU/AAPL etc.. In my view, the market is heading to 50% to 61.8% retracement for SPX, which put SPX at 1120 - 1238.
Fundamental speaking, I know the next leg down will be big and last a few yrs. Just don't know when the period can be put at this rally.
EWI has been wrong at oil/gold/silver/Euro for the past few months. Also at least one month early entering the shorts.
Earlier this year Glenn Neely with NEOWAVE stated that the June 11th 958 $spx was the high for the year and announced his discovery with a national press release.
Today, he writes: " Until the S&p moves far from this part of its structure, I will (at best) be able to predict general market direction, but not specific day to day behavior".
This market has given all of us a reality check. Let's follow your lead by following the PRICE,PRICE,PRICE and TREND, TREND, TREND. Thanks Dave
I will be aggressively short as the support levels highlighted on my charts get broken. Unless and until they are broken, I will follow the trend. I have been doing this for six months, six years, sextuplets, how much clearer can I be?
Glenn Neely has all but capitulated. Here's his latest:
In January 2008, I warned customers and the public that a massive, new bear market was underway. That bear market unfolded almost exactly as originally predicted on both a price and time basis. It seemed almost impossible, at the time, the U.S. stock market would experience a 50%+ decline in less than a year, but that was what NEoWave theory told me and that is what occurred.
As I have said many times in the past, as a market moves toward the center of a large, complex corrective formation, predictability becomes more and more difficult. It usually reaches the point where you can;t predict what will occur next, confusion is high, inaccurate forecasts are common, everyone is looking for answers (when few are possible) and a level of public agitation or irritation is obvious.
That point of confusion is exactly where the S&P is right now. After a year of extremely accurate market forecasts (I was in Timer Digest's Top 10 repeatedly the last 12 months), the S&P is now in the dead center of a 15-20 year, complex correction that began September 2000. Until the S&P moves far from this part of its structure, I will (at best) be able to predict general market direction, but not specific day-to-day behavior. This same phenomenon occurred from 2004 to 2006 when I knew a "bull market" was underway, but I could not predict, with wave theory, exactly how it would unfold.
The continuing rally in the S&P has forced me to reconsider the design of the bear market from January 2008. Initially, I thought it would be a complex correction that pushed to new lows at least once more before the lowest point of this 20 year bear market was reached. But, recent action brings into question that assumption and raises new possibilities. For that reason, I went back to my S&P archives and looked up the various scenarios I originally created for the 4+ year bear market starting January 2008. Attached is one of those scenarios that still explains the past, fits current evidence and explains the magnitude of the rally off 2009's low. If correct, the 2008 to 2012+ time frame is a contracting Triangle that will eventually end much higher than 2009's low. It also means 2009's low will not be broken for the next 50 years!
This feels eerily like my call in 1988, just 8 months after the 1987 crash low, when I was the only wave analyst in the world predicting 1987's low would never be broken for the rest of my life. The count attached to this email is not yet my "official" wave count, but it is quickly becoming a serious choice. Over the next few weeks it should become more obvious the path this phase of the 20-year bear market will follow.
I would sling some sarcastic comment, but it is apparent to me that Neely is the real deal. He publicly has presented himself like some big kid, entranced with the wonder of his craft. I respect that. He obviously understands that the rules are changing and he is struggling to quantify the change. Everyone else is pontificating what they think based on the old rules. Unless you are humble enough to embrace change you will be swept away by it. Beware other subscription services that claim to have the answers in the most chaotic time in 100 years. Hats off to Mr. Neely
Bears and Bears and Bears...oh my. While I also believe this market is moving much too quickly in the face of serious economic problems, I've spent most of my time during the last 6 months searching for equities I thought would outperform rather then searching for the best time to bet on the short side.
There's probably a correction coming in our near future, but as long as all the pouty faced bears and Obama hating Republicans don't convince the rest of us that the sky is falling, we'll see a 10-15% pullback at worst.
Sorry, I reread what I wrote and it sounds critical of Neely. I meant that he makes his living telling people when the moves are coming and he is admitting he's not sure. That's the real deal.
11 comments:
Allan,
Recent rally were broad based with heavy volume. Technically speaking, it is a buy at dips setup for most bullish chart patterns. Especially the leaders become leaders in price again, for example, GOOG/BIDU/AAPL etc.. In my view, the market is heading to 50% to 61.8% retracement for SPX, which put SPX at 1120 - 1238.
Fundamental speaking, I know the next leg down will be big and last a few yrs. Just don't know when the period can be put at this rally.
EWI has been wrong at oil/gold/silver/Euro for the past few months. Also at least one month early entering the shorts.
Thanks.
Earlier this year Glenn Neely with NEOWAVE stated that the June 11th 958 $spx was the high for the year and announced his discovery with a national press release.
Today, he writes: " Until the S&p moves far from this part of its structure, I will (at best) be able to predict general market direction, but not specific day to day behavior".
This market has given all of us a reality check. Let's follow your lead by following the PRICE,PRICE,PRICE and TREND, TREND, TREND. Thanks Dave
Allan - are you getting short here? If not, could you let me know at what level you will. Thanks, Mike
Mike:
I will be aggressively short as the support levels highlighted on my charts get broken. Unless and until they are broken, I will follow the trend. I have been doing this for six months, six years, sextuplets, how much clearer can I be?
Allan, Thanks so much . Lili
Thank you Allan - clear as a bell. Mike
Glenn Neely has all but capitulated. Here's his latest:
In January 2008, I warned customers and the public that a massive, new bear market was underway. That bear market unfolded almost exactly as originally predicted on both a price and time basis. It seemed almost impossible, at the time, the U.S. stock market would experience a 50%+ decline in less than a year, but that was what NEoWave theory told me and that is what occurred.
As I have said many times in the past, as a market moves toward the center of a large, complex corrective formation, predictability becomes more and more difficult. It usually reaches the point where you can;t predict what will occur next, confusion is high, inaccurate forecasts are common, everyone is looking for answers (when few are possible) and a level of public agitation or irritation is obvious.
That point of confusion is exactly where the S&P is right now. After a year of extremely accurate market forecasts (I was in Timer Digest's Top 10 repeatedly the last 12 months), the S&P is now in the dead center of a 15-20 year, complex correction that began September 2000. Until the S&P moves far from this part of its structure, I will (at best) be able to predict general market direction, but not specific day-to-day behavior. This same phenomenon occurred from 2004 to 2006 when I knew a "bull market" was underway, but I could not predict, with wave theory, exactly how it would unfold.
The continuing rally in the S&P has forced me to reconsider the design of the bear market from January 2008. Initially, I thought it would be a complex correction that pushed to new lows at least once more before the lowest point of this 20 year bear market was reached. But, recent action brings into question that assumption and raises new possibilities. For that reason, I went back to my S&P archives and looked up the various scenarios I originally created for the 4+ year bear market starting January 2008. Attached is one of those scenarios that still explains the past, fits current evidence and explains the magnitude of the rally off 2009's low. If correct, the 2008 to 2012+ time frame is a contracting Triangle that will eventually end much higher than 2009's low. It also means 2009's low will not be broken for the next 50 years!
This feels eerily like my call in 1988, just 8 months after the 1987 crash low, when I was the only wave analyst in the world predicting 1987's low would never be broken for the rest of my life. The count attached to this email is not yet my "official" wave count, but it is quickly becoming a serious choice. Over the next few weeks it should become more obvious the path this phase of the 20-year bear market will follow.
Enjoy,
Glenn Neely
NEoWave, Inc.
I would sling some sarcastic comment, but it is apparent to me that Neely is the real deal. He publicly has presented himself like some big kid, entranced with the wonder of his craft. I respect that. He obviously understands that the rules are changing and he is struggling to quantify the change. Everyone else is pontificating what they think based on the old rules. Unless you are humble enough to embrace change you will be swept away by it. Beware other subscription services that claim to have the answers in the most chaotic time in 100 years. Hats off to Mr. Neely
Smiddywesson
Neely the real deal?
no just another bear getting smoked. lol
Bears and Bears and Bears...oh my. While I also believe this market is moving much too quickly in the face of serious economic problems, I've spent most of my time during the last 6 months searching for equities I thought would outperform rather then searching for the best time to bet on the short side.
There's probably a correction coming in our near future, but as long as all the pouty faced bears and Obama hating Republicans don't convince the rest of us that the sky is falling, we'll see a 10-15% pullback at worst.
Sorry, I reread what I wrote and it sounds critical of Neely. I meant that he makes his living telling people when the moves are coming and he is admitting he's not sure. That's the real deal.
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