Sunday, September 20, 2009

Special Guest Blog

From Thomas:




Hi Allan,

I tried and failed to link this chart in your web posting box ...so I'm mailing it to you. I'm not too savvy with the computer. anyway, its about the time period June top to July bottom that was a big turning point for the analysis of "5 waves down" wave 4 should have peaked at this point and blown down past march bottom. but it held there at the green line ....looks like about 475 on the chart. and held again ,as a double bottom in early July. Its been up from there.


.......which I read as being a complete change of ...'5 wave down action'.....the current wave up from march bottom, or from this july bottom, is not characteristic of any wave 4 of 5 waves down.

It does look like it can be a wave A of (an intermediate ?) a-b-c.
and if it was a 'wave B' of a larger A-B-C (down), then that could make sense as well.

I see it as either /or (both)... wave A to target area 1150-1200 ending wave A up...wave B back down to the July Low...and wave C back up to the 1150 top.

If it was Prechter's wave 2 (of 5 down).....or wait, maybe you're thinking it's a wave 4? of Prechter's 5 waves down?? is that what you see?? ....let me think on that....does a true wave 4 move more sideways in zig zags...bigger zig zags could happen, and if it is stretched out over a longer time period, could incorporate several zig zags in a range from 8oo to 1200 (s+p)...geez I think I'm mixing different charts now....oh gawd.... do you get 100 of these emails a day ?!. you should have stayed a lawyer.

Anyway, what I'm thinking is -- I could see a very plausible and predictable scenario where the government game controllers engineer the market movement to do exactly this, a safe sideways slide in a safe range for quite a while , in order to allay the shock and trauma that investing public has suffered last year.... they need to stretch it out, before they allow or orchestrate the next giant crash that prechter is looking for.

The current wave in the s+p is the finish of a wave 5 of 3 of 5 up, as I see it...to be followed by the sideways zig zag wave 4 and then wave 5 of 5 to the top (1150 area)(November 1? or November 17? dec.1 ? or dec.17)

....depending on how long they want to stretch it out to the new year.

Psychologically, it just doesn't make sense at this time, while public investors are just beginning to re enter the market.... the Game Controllers would be shooting themselves in the foot to allow the markets to crash now. Just as they have been engineering this whole phoney 'recovery' all spring and summer, you see all the stick saves, etc... well, why would they stop controlling it now. J.S.Kim, one of my newsletter advisers (you can find him on seeking alpha) thinks that the govt. controllers WONT be able to control the market when the public starts increasing the volume now. I'm not sure I agree with that. but we will see as it plays out.

I think it's safe to say that the public will be hair trigger sensitive to ANY downturn, even the one happening now, the last 3 trading days...

(I'm ready to cash out all my stocks now if theres one more big down day.)
except for NNVC.

So it will be interesting to see what plays out heading into the new year from here. I think a long sideways wave 4 is what they want to engineer now. Every important analyst is expecting a brutal move down... so I'm watching to see the government keep it under control and 'defy' the economic logic once again. their smoke and mirrors power must be very strong. to be able to engineer and control the global markets like this.

I dont trust the government game master for a second, but I also dont want to 'bet against them' until I see that they have lost their grip on the controls.

In any case, I am looking for a wave A top at 1100 followed by a wave B down to the august 17 bottom,or worst case july bottom, followed by wave C up to the 1150 area again....and maybe a repeat of the whole thing in the first quarter 2010.

I see the USD doing the same dance. in a range from EUR/USD 147 top down to 137-138 bottom....ranging 137-147 with 142 as a middle balance point.

If you look at the EUR/USD since last jan 2008 , look at the top july 2008 at 160, the bottom at 124.....right inbetween at 50% fib is ......142.

Thats what they want to engineer for the time being.

Translate that ratio into the various market indexes...and you might get the s_p at top 1200 bottom 800 inbetween 50% at 1000. July bottom is 900 area

It's all a Rigged Game. I love analyzing elliot waves....but I think these days a better analysis is to analyze the Rigged Game.How would you engineer this Rigged Game if you were on the game rigging team? thats the question I ask myself.

kind regards,Thomas.

Your web site is one of the most important to me. keep up the good work. put that hockey photo of yourself back up.

did you play for the redwings??
cheers,mate

1 comment:

Allan said...

Thomas,

Thanks for sharing your analysis and providing the chart. The only way to post charts is in the main blog window, so I created a Special Guest Blog as a kind of reward for your efforts.

The Wave 5 analysis comes from Advanced GET software, a rule-based system in a greatly simplified Elliott tradition. It's not so much the integrity of the Wave Count with AGET, it's what to expect next that matters. The Wave 5 expectation should more accurately be described as simply an expectation of a coming down wave that makes new lows. Whether it ends up being a Wave 5, or a Wave 3 (Prechter's favored count) isn't all that relevant, as long as new lows are the expectation.

No, I never played for the Red Wings. Or more accurately, I haven't played for them yet.......


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