Tuesday, September 29, 2009

Collapse

ALERT ALERT ALERT

THIS IS NOT A TEST

ALERT ALERT ALERT


Below the S&P portrait of the rally from March. Advanced GET labels this 5-wave sequence a Wave 4 on the Weekly chart that portends an approaching Wave 5 down to new lows.

Prechter labels this a Wave 2 rally that is right now transitioning into a Wave 3 down.

Glenn Neely is labeling this a NeoWave Neutral Triangle, a completed B-Wave up preceding a Wave C down.

I am calling this an opportunity to profit from the
imminent collapse of our planet's global financial structure.




Here is a closer look at the Wave 5 channel:



You can see that the Daily BWT and ATR Sell signals are still in tact. You can also surmise the implication of prices breaking down out of that channel.


Here is another scary short term chart, I don't remember what time frame this is, who cares, this is nasty, nasty, nasty.

Some time trends flipped back to Buys on Monday, but Monday was Yom Kippor and prices were easy to manipulate in a mostly unpopulated exchange. Tuesday reversed some time frames back to Sells. October is only 48 hour away.

As someone just posted under "106" blog, follow the trend, not the forecast, but what I am saying to all of you tonight is that I expect the trend to turn down in a harsh and historical way, any day now, any time now.


ALERT ALERT ALERT

THIS IS NOT A TEST

ALERT ALERT ALERT

A

40 comments:

Anonymous said...

What I'm seeing is the government buying futures and manipulating the market. TARP funds are being used by banks to buy equities. Any bad news is getting discounted and irrelevant good news is being blown out of proportion. I'm not sure how any signals can fight this trend.

Anonymous said...

DANGER Will Robinson!!!

Anonymous said...

Prepare for the largest up day in the history of the markets.

thomas said...

Allan.....where on the chart,moving forward ,is the date where 1060 intersects with the bottom trendline??

T said...

....I would think that's how much Time the market movement has to resolve the critical reckoning issues,and break above critical zones if this uptrend is going to continue.
T

zen said...

nonsense...

Anonymous said...

Index might be extended, however, if we look at weekly chart of many stocks, don't we see bullish pattern?

Such as JNJ, COP, XOM, AAPL, T, PFE, XTO, SU, QCOM, etc.

I run about 100-150 charts last week, the impression I got is that these stocks are forming good base and could possibly run higher.

It doesn't seem to me that market is going to collapse at this point. A correction, maybe.

If market indeed move down big, will government issue another round of stimulation or play weak $ card?

So I am pretty much agree with Marc Faber at this point that market won't see new lows.

What do you think? Thanks.

Anonymous said...

Correct me if I am wrong but does't EW hold a posibility for ABC correction followed by uptrend? If so does Advanced GET have a different algorithm? How do you differentiate between a simple TOP and a top leading to new lows?

Anonymous said...

Thank you Allan I appreciate your work here. Mike

Anonymous said...

intolerance? you have been wrong for 7 months. lol

Anonymous said...

I agree with the poster who mentioned a 'correction' on an intermediate wave sequence,but sometimes one can only see it happening as it is happening.
And I agree with the other poster that there Can be stocks that show good wave patterns,good s/r points holding up,etc.
I agree with the poster who mentioned looking at the political tensions for a clue as to how severe any wave down action that happens or is triggered by it.
I agree with everyone about everything ,it seems.

Anonymous said...

What would be the kind of 'events' ,political or otherwise, that could 'trigger' a market collapse?
I think I read an article the other day about something interesting.It was that recent terrorist plot that was thwarted in NYC by the NYC police.and something about the FBI being mad at the NYC police because they ,went in and arrested the guy before the FBI was ready to do it, something like that. It was around the september 14th.Where did I see this.Maybe www.whatreallyhappened.com
I wonder if its related to the market top and the sudden sell off the next week.I suppose everything is related.Why am I starting to feel paranoid? is that related too?
I'm not getting enough sleep.

samiam said...

Allan -

Did you have a similar ALERT prior to the spx plunge at 1500+?

Allan said...

http://allallan.blogspot.com/2008/09/crash-warning.html

samiam said...

Very nice work! Not surprised as I am a former Detroit Country Dayer! Dad went to mumford in the 50's! All former michiganders.

Do you see things as dire today as in September 2008. I agree that the world is in bad shape, but in many respects, the wave that brought us down is exhausted. I think we need a new crisis to reassert itself before armageddon hits.

nice work

Anonymous said...

Thanks for the big alerts!!!

The climax run might be over on 9/23 or there is a few more day's life. The next wave down will be big.

Rich

Anonymous said...

Beware. I can attest to A's call last Sept. Unfortunately Muathe was pounding the buy table at the time all the way down - irrespective of what he now claims - and i never listened to Allan. Never again....JBG

Anonymous said...

"...the wave that brought us down is exhausted. I think we need a new crisis..." - it's so simple - a return of banks accounting from mark-to-fantasy to mark-to-market or mark-to-real-cash-flows respectively will be certainly enough - there is no need for "new" crisis... Primary 3 is very close unless we are already here...

Anonymous said...

It will be interesting to see if you are right this time around; since nothing has come from your Sept/09 predictions concerning the market. Allan, you technical calls on NNVC have been wrong so far this year. what gives?

Anonymous said...

I hope you are right Allan.

My GET charts are pointing down but have been for a long time. Right now, I do not have a reliable indicator to predict such a move.

I will state that that if you are WRONG about the world's coming to an end, even a correction could be a very profitable event for short sellers.

Since the bottom in March at about 1300 we have risen to about 2100. That's and 800 point (!) NASDAQ gain.

Even a 50% correction, or if you like fibonacci and 1/3 correction represents aprrox a 250-400 NASDAQ point drop. Or about 1250- 2000 Dow points.

That's a big one and it does not involve a mega-crash.

While everyone has his own trading strategy, I submit to you that even the correction scenario, using leveraged instruments, represents a big gain opportunity. If we go up again through October, then that sets up a November correction scenario that is an even better profit generator.

John K. in DC

Anonymous said...

The big gain opportunity is passing you all by, and will continue to do so. Waiting for a correction is a fool's game. Any correction of substance is unlikely to occur in this environment and you miss out on some incredible gains by being long and strong. But hey, if you want to continue pissing away money, go for it.

How do I know this? Because everyone and his brother is looking to get short here. Market will not accommodate everyone getting rich at once.

Anonymous said...

"Market will not accommodate everyone getting rich at once."

Well you won't be for one! ;-)

Anonymous said...

"Well you won't be for one! ;-)"

You're right. I've already gotten rich on the way up. ;-)

mister negative said...

....Count the elliott waves....just count them correctly.
Look at the political news...this market ,global market, is All a Rigged Game. The whole rally from march bottom was rigged with a million stick saves ,the whole economy has been a bubble/bust fraud engineered by the federal reserve since its inception....I should call it a coup,an economic coup in 1913.
Now they control the global economy. Its a Rigged Game.whatever they plan on engineering....will happen.
and the political news,especially about things like swine flu and bombing Iran, and all the phoney government stats that signify a fraudulent economy failing....its a rigged game in a dying empire.

Yes, lets short the market at the right timing moment, and make alot of money.... while we watch world war 3 kick off .and marshal law, etc.... with all your money you can construct the biggest barbed wire fence around your house.

odelys said...

If someone issues such an emergency alert, it must be a very special situation. Normally, these are once-a-year-opportunities, if not once-a-decade though...

Anonymous said...

It's going against the trend! And I know trend following is the very best!

thomas said...

As bad as the idea sounds ,about Any major correction wave happening now-any big down wave-it will scare investors ,maybe into a bit of panic, because of the trauma they (we) suffered in last year's crash. the psychic trauma is still raw.
If this really is a rigged game as you say,and the Elite power controllers of the Game are purposefully engineering it,I would think they might want to 'engineer' a less than total (wave3) crash at this time.The timing of that doesnt 'feel' right to me. What feels more logical is an intermediate (wave B) down (of A-B-C)'A' being the march to sept rally,a 'B' wave down to the JULY bottom. followed by a 'wave C' back up to finish the year at the 1000 - 1100 area. That would make more sense to me.
But ,having said that, anyone recently entered/invested long at this current level would see great loss of $$ from here down to the july bottom.

I'm all out now,in cash.
except for NNVC

Anonymous said...

Expect the unexpected. Up crash.

Anonymous said...

Don't look now the market is coming back as usuasal, til tarp money runs out it'll be a continous repeat.

Anonymous said...

S&P 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, 200-day are all trending up. What else do you need to know?

Anonymous said...

Allan
What do see that makes you believe in a crash?
Thanks

Anonymous said...

short at the open, now I am toast ...

Anonymous said...

Allan used up all his ammo last year. No way someone nails this call twice.

I should say that I hope he is right because I have been selling hard into this rally and have taken a professional stand that will pay off handsomely if the market goes back down. But I have my doubts... this market is defying all logic and all expectations.

Anonymous said...

I'm not sure if we will collapse or drift ever lower, nor do I care. I'm in cash and about to switch to short. The rally is over. It started to break down on the 16th and topped on the 23rd.

Pull up a 60 minute chart of the S&P500 and look at the pretty channel. Lower lows dating back to the 16th and lower highs since the 23rd top. You've got very strong support leading ever lower. Today, the price bounced right off that upper line of resistance and she's channeling down to the bottom of the ocean.

Thank you Allan, that makes two big tops I timed, Oct. 07 and this one, and you were a big part of that accomplishment. I only got part of the rally, but that's my fault (and defense is more important anyway).

Smiddywesson


Short Short Short.

Anonymous said...

smiddy, don't count yur chickens before dey hatched.

Anonymous said...

LOL, Very true, nothings a sure thing nowadays, but I'm willing to put my money where my mouth is. Let's just hope I don't end up with a bunch of broken teeth!

Smiddy

Barb said...

Thanks for the alert!

Preparing to tuck and roll...

Anonymous said...

Every year until 2004, my grandfather would declare with 100% confidence that "this is the year the Sox win the series."

Year after year, decade after decade, he was wrong. Until 2004. Then he was a freakin' clairvoyant. All the family could talk about was how Grandpa Bill predicted the Red Sox winning the World Series.

Well, he passed in 2006 but his legacy lives on. Rumor has it he predicted Boston's previous championship in 1918 but I have my doubts. He was only 5 years old...

Benny D.

Anonymous said...

Good analogy, but not perfect. I'm not a perma-Cub and I don't care which way the season goes. This game's not about predicting anyway, it's about interpreting what is happening right now and acting quick enough on partial knowledge to make money. I'm not too proud to jump on the bandwagon with the hated Yankee fans because money is the only trophy in this game.

As for the rally, pull up a 60 minute chart and watch the S&P500 bounce along lower resistance since the 16'th, and lower highs since the 23'rd. It's a very clean chart. Yes, it's not a 200 day moving average, but that's the nature of the game if you want to catch the move.

Smiddy

Anonymous said...

Baseball is for the ignorant masses. Who the hell cares. You are an idiot if you follow that crap. GET A LIFE!