Thursday, July 24, 2008

POT - Update

As someone noted yesterday, the Potash SHORT idea from July 7th is finally coming around.

The Triangle chart above shows a Weekly Break-Down Sell Signal July 1st around 215. The previous Buy signal was on April 3rd at 165.


This is a quickly updated version of the chart from the July 7th post. Note how 200 represents the bottom of the up channel; anything below 200 is bearish and a close back above 200 into the channel would not help the bearish case. But the MACD is suggesting the Intermediate Trend is turning DOWN.

A

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

Allan:

As a guy who, on this blog, has posted that he was at the ORIGINAL Woodstock in 1968, how can you be shorting POT?

Are you hedging your position with something you may be growing in your backyard?

Karl

Ed said...

Allan,
Thank you for all of your recommendations and updates. Those who are looking for an ETF alternative to shorting POT may want to take a look at Proshares Ultrashort Basic Materials (symbol: SMN).

Cheers,
--Ed

Anonymous said...

Karl,
Woodstock was in 1969. Maybe you should lay off.
Adam

Anonymous said...

Allan how do you manage stops or outs on your option positions? Your POT trade, despite being correct in theory, is doing poorly. Do you use a percentage loss for options, wait for a weekly or daily triangle buy to get out, etc.....

Are you willing to lose the entire amount on the trade?

POT still looks bad to me.

Allan said...

POT looks bad to me too, but it has closed above 200 five times since my update where I suggested that closing above 200 wasn't good for the trade. I'm out, ready to get back in on a breakdown, but with options being a vehicle of diminishing value, I'd rather watch for now then bleed a slow death.

As a general rule, option trades need to work right away or be abandoned. Stock trades are a little more forgiving. You can make your own trade management decisions from there.

Anonymous said...

Allan, What are your thoughts on POT - is it going to go further down? Is it time to buy more puts? Thank you.