Wednesday, July 30, 2008

DIG for DUG

I don't normally do this, but since so many have followed me into DUG, this is a heads-up that I flipped out of DUG today and have reversed long via XLE (or use DIG, the Long Oil equivalent of DUG). I closed out my DUG calls at $7.80, for a 130% gain.

On the DUG chart below, note how the stock has hit the 50 day moving average, which should provide some resistance if not a more substantial reversal:



On the Daily DIG chart below, look at how deply oversold the MACD is, going back an entire year. This is reflected also in the down slope of the price decline, straight down for the past month. Some kind of bounce is overdue. A full fledged reversal to new highs in the XLE has to start with a bounce, so although early based on the technicals, Oil is up $4.00 as of 2:00PM EDT Wednesday, so I am going for the bounce here, at a minimum.

A

16 comments:

Anonymous said...

Dude, this is creepy! I closed out DUG this morning as well. Considered going long the other way, but chickened out.

Anonymous said...

Allan,
Would you say that todays move in HYGS has enough volume to confirm the upside break out of the channel you drew from a few posts ago?
Eric

Allan said...

Eric, no doubt HYGS is looking good in here, everything is falling into place for another leg up.

Allan said...

My last chart before going to bed (11:30 PM in Arizona), and it's a whopper. HYGS is in a wedge breakout, $2.40 a cinch, maybe higher. If I wasn't so tired I'd Blog it, so only those who wander by this comment thread will see it. C'est la vie.

Anonymous said...

That looks exciting! Where would you put a chart based stop? I have one under the trendline or top of the wedge, but not sure if t would be better below the horizontal support?
Eric

Allan said...

horizontal support, maybe $1.35 give or take a nickel.

Anonymous said...

Thanks Allan. The only thing that scares me is that earnings is coming up to be reported in two days.

Anonymous said...

Whoops, make that earnings reported on August 11. I guess a lot can happen by then.

Anonymous said...

Allan:


What % of your trading is analytical and what % is pure "balls.?

Also, how do I invest in your hedge fund?

Word on Wall Street ( I heard this info inside Goldman Sachs) is that you raked in 35%+ in one month this year and are killing the SPX year over year.

In short- I want "in." Just tell me where to write the check.

Mike

Anonymous said...

Allan MGA broke its trend what do you think? Will tomorrow need to conferm? Or does it need to break 1.80

Allan said...

mike, i'm not sure who you are or how you know so much about my performance, but, please do not post publicly about my fund, for many reasons, least of which is federal law. if you have any questions, please email me directly.

Allan said...

oops, should read, "not the least of which is federal law"

curt504 said...

MKTY, has slumped a bit. Allan any thoughts or info on future moves?

tnx curt

Allan said...

Curt, I took some fairly quick profits in MKTY (my once large gain was becoming a smaller gain my the hour). Haven't seen a reason to jump back in yet.

Anonymous said...

Wow, do I wish I didn't agree with you on HYGS!

Closed it out today upon it breaking $1.30.

and you sounded so sure of it.....

I also closed out my POT short on Friday, definitely should have held on! Not a good day!

Allan said...

sorry about hygs, burned me too. but remember, we have already established that a 50% win rate and we are rich; except you got to let stuff like POT run it's course, or 50% wins are a dream.