Monday, December 14, 2009

Message from Allan

All of these posts are messages from me, so what's so different about this one?

My work over the weekend and this morning has generated an urgency for a new big picture analysis that usually is part of my forecasting overview for the new year.  Rather then wait until early January to post my forecast for equities and other asset classes, it needs to be done now.

So excuse the dearth of posts for the next few days, just know that I am working on putting a commentary together that will reveal a compelling big picture, encompassing major asset classes and in virtually all global markets.

Any hint of the emergence of these trends prior to my finishing and posting this new analysis will prompt the publishing of abbreviated interim alerts, albeit without all of the background analysis and/or corroboration that would normally accompany my annual forecast blog.

Either you trust me by now, or you don't.



Anonymous said...

I have always trusted you....

Anonymous said...

scarcity--something to factor into the forecast? This is just the USA; RSA is out of K-rands.

The Return of Gold and Silver Eagle Rationing--14Dec09

Full Metal Jacket

Anonymous said...

Yes we trust you Allan.

Here is why.......
I'll trust a trend follower over an INVESTMENT GURU any day.

Check out the above list.

Should be no surprise to Allan followers that Jason Kelly is in 3rd place while having the cheapest newsletter on the list.

Lets see where Cramer is down on the list. Gee, I wonder how much more generates in revenues compared to 'The Kelly Letter'?

Anyone see this MOVIE yet?

Anonymous said...

I dont know where to post this except here,call it a general info category.

Is this weeks market action the latest ....GOVERNMENT GOLDMAN SACHS RIGGED GAME MAGIC TRICK ?
Something Ive come to expect now,always right on time,a key stick save, the last one was Buffett buying the railroad, now this rabbit out of the hat.

Am I noticing something or does it mean nothing?
Much of the time in the greater market action,since a long time now, when the dollar weakens the market goes UP. when the dollar recovers,the markets go Down.

That has been the correlation.

Until NOW.

The only significant corrections to look at this year,aside from the giant collapse in 2008,when the markets tanked and the dollar soared. are these....

the june 2009 correction,in the EUR/USD saw a euro drop of 600 pips in 2 weeks,with a corresponding drop in S+P of 70 pts.
In the sept.correction,10 days, saw the eur drop against the dollar by about 400 pips, and the corresponding drop in S+P was 60 pts.

In the october 24 to nov 2 correction saw the Eur drop 400 pips and the S+P went along with 70 pts.drop.

THIS TIME, from dec.3 to the present....has seen a plunge in the Euro against the dollar, one way trip,600 pips,and looks like more to go....BUT the S+P only dropped 35 pts,and shot right back up to recover....while the dollar stays down.

To me this looks like a 'destruction of the correlation'
and I think its the rigged game engineers latest Magic Trick.

To show the world, or China at least, that they will take good care of the u.s. dollar, while still maintaining the stock market rally, .....quite a trick if you ask me. some pretty powerful computer systems working hard these days at goldman.

I'm still waiting for that wave 3 crash......any day now.
surely has to be happening with the dollar charging ahead. right? market crash here we come.

applause for the Game Controllers latest magic trick.
.....Wonder whats next.
whatta show. step right up.keep your eye on the little ball the computer is faster than the eye.

Anonymous said...

re correlations,

the Operators like to use Skinnerian operant behavior techniques to misdirect perception of risk. The latter half of 2009 was 'buy the bounce off the 50-MAvg' in the DJIA. But we did not touch it in December. This eagerness to buy, illustrated the effect of the conditioning; no wait for the technical buy at the 50MAvg in Dec.

Now they are working with building expectation that the dollar correlation has negated itself. This is also being done to misdirect perception of risk.

For quite awhile now, nobody has been long the SMkt based upon fundamentals (duh, what fundamentals). And now they without technicals. This is when huge airpockets will suddenly be perceived. Only the pilot has yet to realize he's lost his radar in the midst of a fog bank.

Much like a Wiley Coyote cartoon. The Coyote chases Road Runner. Then comes the suspended-in-air pause (a new-normal is heralded), then Coyote falls per usual.

cf. 5:50-end

musica de el conguero Poncho Sanchez - 'Suave Cha'

Bob said...

Conspiracy theory is the playground of the intellectually bankrupt.