Monday, May 31, 2010

Scariest Chart in the World, Part II

Back on April 19 I published, "The Scariest Chart in the World."   It was the Weekly chart of the Dow Jones Shanghai Index.   It was then on the verge of a Weekly Trend Sell Signal.  Here is an updated chart:



The SELL came the week of April 26 at about 350 on the index and in the past four weeks the Index has dropped about 10%.

How about an encore? 

The Scariest Chart in the World, Part II


This is a Monthly version of the Shanghai Index which itself is now on the verge of a Monthly Trend Sell Signal.  You can see that if the trend line goes, the next level of support is around the late 2009 lows, just under 200 on the index, or about 35% below current levels.

Finally, a look at the Daily chart with an Elliott Wave count:


The Daily trend is suggesting a drop below 300. The monthly reversal is at 296, meaning any monthly close below 296 triggers the Monthly Trend Sell Signal.  Ergo, the scariest chart in the world, part two.


A

Disclaimer: 
          Wish I was a Kellogg's Cornflake,  Floatin' in my bowl takin' movies.

Sunday, May 30, 2010

On a personal note

These songs, these Sunday posts, they mean more then I can convey in my writing, more then I can say about myself and my life as we know it.  The live performances are not always the best musically, or best audio, or visual, but like the one below, there is a transcendent quality to them. You can see it in Leonard Cohen's eyes, his stare into the past, into the eyes, time and place of Suzanne. 

As for me, consider this a continuation of last night's post, a description of who we are,  against all logic, against all odds, without any lucid structure or courtship....irrational, elusive passion traveling along its own uncertain path, propelled by its own seductive consciousness.


DJIA Sell Signal

Below is a monthly chart of the DJIA with both a long term Trend Model (low volatility version) and a long term Elliott Wave count.  In addition, I've added the elements of an Advanced GET Mechanical Sell Signal which as of the end of May has generated a fresh SELL on this monthly chart.




(1) Trend Model:  The Monthly Trend Model has been on a SELL since June, 2008 @ 11,350.  The rally that began in early 2009 was insufficient to flip this model from its entrenched SELL MODE and now it appears that prices are once again in sync with the dominant trend, DOWN.

(2) Elliott Wave Count: In terms of Elliott Wave counts, this one shows a completed multi-decade five waves up, terminating in October, 2007.  I would expect at a minimum, a decade of lower prices.  Whether current prices are in an ABC, or have traced out  Waves 1 and 2 and are now in Wave 3 DOWN, it is academic.  Whether a Wave 3 or Wave C, both are third waves, so the expectation is hard down under either interpretation.

(3) Mechanical SELL SIGNAL:  Below is a close-up of the most recent five years which culminated on Friday with an Advanced GET Mechanical SELL SIGNAL.  The elements of this very reliable, objective signal are a Waves 1-4 shown on the chart; an Elliott Oscillator which goes from way oversold to neutral (bottom study); a False Bar Stochastic Sell Signal (top study); and a break down of the Trend Regression Channel (broken on Friday's monthly close). The upper target for this move is shown as about 4,500 on the DJIA, the lower target (not shown), just below 1,000. 




One more heads-up for the days and weeks ahead.  Below is the DJIA monthly chart using my standard Trend Model settings (as opposed to the low volatility settings above).  Note that the rally from 2009-2010 was enough to flip this model LONG last September.  But more importantly note where the model will flip back SHORT: any monthly close below 9,601.84:



In a prior life (1977-1994) I practiced law and that experience, believe it or not, does at times help with dealing with market prediction  The legal system has its own specialized sets of rules, evidence and associated standards of proof.  One of major concepts in assessing subjective criteria, especially in terms of constitutional rights and probable cause, (or as it is know today, is he/she an illegal immigrant?), is a concept called, Totality of Circumstances, i.e. a standard for the evaluation of evidence suggesting that there is no single deciding factor, that one must consider all the facts, examine all of the factors,  and reach conclusions from weighing each factor within the context of the whole, "the gestalt of the totality of circumstances test. (Arizona v. O'Meara 198 Ariz. 294, 296, ¶ 10, 9 P.3d 325, 327. (2000)).

The analysis above sets out the case for probable cause that the market is heading lower, maybe much lower in the months and years ahead.  As we go along, I'll periodically review this analysis and if anything changes, will post it here. 

Court adjourned.


A
Disclaimer: 
This ain’t no place for the weary kind.

In the jingle jangle morning

 The Angst of March:
What is haunting this Easter Sunday, ten years past my girls' frolicking in life sublime, is the incoherence of my solitude, the empty, senseless culmination of a journey, fallen so hard and short, from deep in the angst of March.
Island of Allan:
If you are looking for perfection, you will not find it here, nor in the Red Wings, nor in my writings, my life, or my trend tables.  But as the subscribers above-referenced point out, there is value here, big value, but it comes with fallibility.  Most of Datsyuk's shots don't go in the net, but of the ones that do, they make a difference, a consequential, almost eloquent difference, not only for Pavel, but for his teammates; not only for Allan, but for his teammates. 
On a Monday in May:
But I forgot that Dylan was on and that his songs pierce the protective shells that we build just so we can go on.  Poignant, stinging, disarming, his simple words rhyme across decades of loves; loves found, loves lost and loves remembered. 
And on this Monday in May, a love mourned.

Someone saw that one
A phone call pointed the way,
a blog was read;
Someone reached out
closure was intended,
magic intervened.
Inexplicable comes to mind.
Intricate emotional frenzy
portrait of the artist as a middle-aged man;
No longer on the edge,
no longer on the brink,
inexplicably (there it is again) found,
serendipity breeds enlightenment.

The true nature of love.  Kindred souls.  Physical (read: sexual)  tension of unimaginable attraction. Karmic energy reaching across the unseen, toward the unknown; without time nor space, without memory nor fate,  "Far from the twisted read of crazy sorrow."

Then take me disappearin’ through the smoke rings of my mind
Down the foggy ruins of time, far past the frozen leaves
The haunted, frightened trees, out to the windy beach
Far from the twisted reach of crazy sorrow
Yes, to dance beneath the diamond sky with one hand waving free
Silhouetted by the sea, circled by the circus sands
With all memory and fate driven deep beneath the waves
Let me forget about today until tomorrow

Hey! Mr. Tambourine Man, play a song for me
I’m not sleepy and there is no place I’m going to
Hey! Mr. Tambourine Man, play a song for me
In the jingle jangle morning I’ll come followin’ you

Saturday, May 29, 2010

The Cost of Freedom

I watched HBO's series, "The Pacific," this spring, was disgusted beyond belief at the cruelty and death of the war in the Pacific.  At the end of the last episode they updated the lives of the men that The Pacific was based upon.  Most had survived the war, but not life and as I read about their ordinary, mundane lives after the war and of their respective deaths in the years at the end of the 20th century, my eyes welled up in sadness, in gratitude, in recognition of my own mortality.  These were ordinary men thrust into an extraordinary theater of slaughter.  Now they are mostly gone and it is up to us to remember, so that as my people so stridently proclaim, "Never again."

A


Friday, May 28, 2010

VXX

Below is a Weekly chart of VXX along with Fibonacci retracement levels:



The LONG signal was generated the first week in May and is still operative.  Note how the character of the market has changed, from a declining, subdued trend to a rising, volatile, broad-ranging trend.  Note also how the initial surge (Wave 1) has now been retraced between 38-50%.  It's possible for the retracement to reach 62% before ending, but VXX is in its Fibonacci window of reversal now, so any dramatic rise in volatility will likely resolve into a Wave 3 advance with inverse implications for the stock market.


Thursday, May 27, 2010

Whatever works

Here is a 240 minute chart of the DJIA:


As with yesterday's SPX chart, prices are in the process of retracing a Fibonacci percentage of the prior decline and a move into the Fibonacci window, accompanied by shorter-term trend SELL signals, will provide an opportunity to enter on the SHORT side.  Late yesterday was the first attempt at this strategy, obviously a fake out.  It may take multiple attempts, nothing worthwhile ever comes easy.  The pay-off, being SHORT for a Wave 3 decline, is easily worth a few whipsaws, i.e.  whatever works.



Wednesday, May 26, 2010

Sounds like a plan

Here are my two Hourly Trend Models, followed by a possible target for this counter-trend rally.






It's the third chart that is operative for strategy here, awaiting a move up into Fibonacci resistance followed by a reversal of the Hourly Models from LONG to SHORT.

Sounds like a plan.

A

Tuesday, May 25, 2010

SPXU

Here is a 240 minute chart of the SPXU, a triple-leveraged inverse ETF for the S&P 500:

SPXU 240 minute Trend Model


Below, the Elliott Wave projections for this move:


SPXU - EW projections

There are two ways to play these leveraged ETF's.  First, you can simply trade off of their charts, being LONG when prices are above the trend line and SHORT when prices are below the trend line. 

Alternatively, you can base trades on the underlying unleveraged index, i.e. SPX and simply trade the SPXU based on the SPX chart:

SPX 240 minute Trend Model


Disclaimer:  There are many ways to skin a cat, but it is recommend that you  declaw them first.

SPX - dominant trend

Following up on my post from last night, here is the current SPX Daily chart with a potential EW count that suggests an initial target of 925-975 for this move:

SPX Daily Trend Model


I still find it fascinating how prices tend to approach the trend line on retracements, then fall short and resume the dominant trend.  Look at the most recent set of blue candles, five "up" candles that retraced to the vicinity of the trend line around May 10-14, then  resumed the downtrend.  This pattern may very well provide additional entry points in sync with the dominant trend.


A

Monday, May 24, 2010

SPY and overnight trading

I don't usually post this late at night, but, it looks like the lows from last Friday are in danger of being taken out if the overnight weakness carries over to Tuesday morning.  Here is the SPY 60 minute chart as it closed on Monday:




With the S&P Futures down 18 points, those lows are in danger of falling.  This would not bode well for the market.

A

The look of Dow

The look of love is in your eyes
A look your smile can't disguise
The look of love is saying so much more than just words could ever say
And what my heart has heard, well it takes my breath away


This is the 60_minute DJIA, still entrenched in a short-term SELL, despite market strength over the past couple of days.


Same holds true for the 240_minute DJIA, still well into SELL MODE.



I consider this the most important of the three charts.  It's a Daily DJIA that suggests the decline of the past few weeks is unfinished.  Note that there are several hundred DJIA points to go before this Daily trend is even threatened.  That's where the 60 & 240 minute charts come in, early warning systems which haven't yet been triggered.

A


Disclaimer:
Burt Bacharach has been married four times. His first marriage was to Paula Stewart, which lasted five years (1953–58). His second marriage was to actress Angie Dickinson, which lasted fifteen years (1965–80). Bacharach and Dickinson had a daughter, Nikki, who is now deceased (see Angie_Dickinson#Personal_life). His third marriage was to lyricist Carole Bayer Sager, which lasted nine years (1982–91). Bacharach and Bayer Sager collaborated on a number of musical pieces, and had a son, Cristopher. Bacharach married his current wife, Jane Hansen, in 1993; they have two children.

Sunday, May 23, 2010

Isn't life strange?

I'm looking for someone to change my life.
I'm looking for a miracle in my life.
 From my life-long friend, Jack:
A lot of people don’t like the Moody Blues, but I think they are great. I remember a friend in Massachusetts in the very late-early 70’s (before I started listening to them) tell me that these guys really understood the world, and everything you wanted to know about it is contained in their songs.
Isn't life strange
A turn of the page
A book without light
Unless with love we write;
To throw it away
To lose just a day
The quicksand of time
You know it makes me want to cry, cry, cry -

Wished I could be in your heart
To be one with your love
Wished I could be in your eyes
Looking back there you were:




Saturday, May 22, 2010

Nasdaq 100 - Daily Trend Model

Below is the Nasdaq 100 Daily Trend Model with an Elliott Wave count that portends deeper, much deeper declines in the offing:


This trend model can be used to trade QQQQ options and if you are so inclined, gives a "worst-case"scenario for analyzing "best case" scenarios for gains in puts.  The wave count is suggesting another 7-17% decline in store for the index.  Extrapolating that to the QQQQ would suggest a drop to between 41-37 from its current level of 44.84.  Let's take a look at the QQQQ chart and see how close it comes:


Wave 5 Target = 35-40

In conclusion, while the Daily Trend Model is SHORT, it doesn't give guidance as to how far or for how long the market will decline.  EW is a imperfect science, but it does provide some structure for projections and in this case, is suggesting a decline taking the QQQQ to levels between 35-41.  With four weeks to go to June expiration, there are a lot of strikes in the QQQQ puts that will thrive under the auspices of these projections.

A

Disclaimer:  Do you really know me?  Do you know what I may be on, or have been smoking, or drinking, or eating, or dropping?  Have you ever taken window pane acid?  Have you ever eaten really potent brownies?  Or, maybe he's just too old for that stuff.  See, now he's talking in the first person.  Or is it second?  That should cover it.

Friday, May 21, 2010

Perspective

DJIA 60 minute

Waiting for this counter-trend rally to end, note how the projected 4th wave termination straddles the 60 minute trend line.  This says to me that the trend line is a reasonable place to add-on Short positions, if things get that far.  If not, a break of the  Wave 3 low would serve the same purpose.


Uh-Oh

Bear markets often end with war.  There can also be a correlation between the size of the bear market and the ferocity of the ensuing conflict. In the story below, note that at least one of the potential combatants is an unstable nuclear power.  This story is being underestimated and lightly covered in the media.  File it away, under, "uh-oh...."


 Clinton Condemns Attack on South Korean Ship


TOKYO — Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton harshly condemned North Korea on Friday for a deadly torpedo attack on a South Korean Navy warship last March, and promised to marshal an international response in the coming week with Japan, China and other countries.

“I think it is important to send a clear message to North Korea that provocative actions have consequences,” she said after meeting here with the Japanese foreign minister, Katsuya Okada. “We cannot allow this attack on South Korea to go unanswered by the international community.”

Mrs. Clinton declined to lay out the potential options for a response, saying that would be premature. But she left little doubt that the United States would undertake an intensive diplomatic effort to craft a response to the sinking of the Cheonan, which killed 46 sailors and was one of the biggest military provocations on the Korean Peninsula since the Korean War.

Among the options being considered by South Korean and American officials is a United Nations Security Council resolution, and joint naval exercises with South Korea that could include anti-submarine warfare operations. South Korea may also cut off its remaining trade with the North.

“Let me be clear: this will not, and cannot be, business as usual,” Mrs. Clinton said, speaking in solemn tones. “There must be an international, not just a regional, but an international response.”


NKorea warns of war if punished for ship sinking

SEOUL, South Korea (AP) - Tensions deepened Thursday on the Korean peninsula as South Korea accused North Korea of firing a torpedo that sank a naval warship, killing 46 sailors in the country's worst military disaster since the Korean War.

President Lee Myung-bak vowed "stern action" for the provocation following the release of long-awaited results from a multinational investigation into the March 26 sinking near the Koreas' tense maritime border. North Korea, reacting swiftly, called the results a fabrication, and warned that any retaliation would trigger war. It continued to deny involvement in the sinking of the warship Cheonan.


Thursday, May 20, 2010

Intraday Trend Tables

Here is an example of the Intraday Trend Tables that get sent out to subscribers periodically throughout the trading day:



Wednesday, May 19, 2010

UUP

The investment seeks to track the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the Deutsche Bank Long US Dollar Futures index. The index is comprised solely of long futures contracts. The futures contract is designed to replicate the performance of being long the US Dollar against the Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Swedish Krona and Swiss Franc.





The BUY SIGNAL on the US Dollar ETF was in mid-April @ $23.78.  You can see on the above chart what effect a $2 move in the ETF over a month would have on at-the-money calls, about a 200% return.  Not a guarantee, just a what-if.


A

April Showers ---> May Flowers

Three prominent Shorts from April that were discussed here in real time.







The chart titles link to the April, 2010 blogs that first posted the Sell Signals.  The EW counts included in these charts were not known at the time of the signals, but are known now, in retrospect. Not all Trend Model signals result in Wave 3 downtrends, but when they do, they make up for any prior whipsaws and then some.

Tuesday, May 18, 2010

VXX - continued


Here is a continuation of the VXX chart posted earlier today.  VXX traded down to the 0.618 level and bounced strongly.  Either its breaking out big time and the market is in deep trouble, or it is making a double top and about to fall, thus suggesting a market recovery.

Ahh, drama....

A

NNVC chart update

I hesitate to go here since my best advice has been  to buy this stock and put it away for safekeeping.  Nonetheless, I post the charts when NNVC rises, so let's be fair and post charts when it declines.

Note how price continually bounced at Weekly trend line support


Best guess: Wave 4 retracement before Wave 5 advance


Best for last: Monthly chart targeting 5.50 - 8.00

No reason to get excited

No reason to get excited
The thief he kindly spoke
There aren't many here among us
That feel that life is but a joke
But you and I we've been through that
And this is not our fate
So let us not talk falsely now
The hour is getting late

Below an update on the DJIA and VXX, the charts countering the love-fest on CNBC  as the market etches out yet another Wave 2 rally.  Note the Fibonacci levels and where the the longer term (Daily) trend model gives up the ghost and flips LONG.....hint.....it's a long way up there....10,951.

 For very short term trading


Another indication for short-term trading only


Conversely mirroring the above two DJIA charts


The dominant trend for position traders


Is this rally the beginning of a spanking new uptrend, or an opportunity to enter new Short positions in concert with the dominant trend?  The weight of the evidence suggests the latter, unless and until the 0.618 Fibonacci levels are clearly exceeded.


A

Monday, May 17, 2010

On a Monday in May

When we meet again
Introduced as friends
Please don't let on that you knew me when
I was hungry and it was your world.

After trading today, I updated my trend tables and decided to run out to the bank and mail box before composing my evening update to subscribers.  I had forgotten that over the weekend I had been playing The Essential Bob Dylan on my iPod, which is plugged into my car's sound system.  Mulling over what insights I might glean from today's volatile trading, I was unceremoniously jarred from the current and thrown into the past as Just Like A Woman came on.

There isn't a woman in my life that doesn't fit the profile in this song.  Nor is there a memory left that isn't tainted by the words above, so poignant, so sad, so painful.  Mr. Macho market trend trader, so invincible, so on top of this financial world, was reduced to tears, silent, aching, tears of mourning, of regret, of isolation and of remorse. 

I passed through some tough personal times earlier this year.  If you haven't noticed, I have come out it OK, maybe even stronger and better then ever.  The problem is, that through it all, I never really had time to mourn the loss of Michelle.  That doomed and short-lived romantic drama was erased as quickly, as inexplicably, as it appeared. Other more pressing matters intervened at the end, taking all of my strength and soul to pass through that time and come out the other side.  But I never got to mourn, to accept, to wonder, to understand the whirlwind that sucked me in and spit me out, yes, it was her world and we just didn't fit.

I thought that the pieces were picked-up.  But I forgot that Dylan was on and that his songs pierce the protective shells that we build just so we can go on.  Poignant, stinging, disarming, his simple words rhyme across decades of loves;  loves found, loves lost and loves remembered. 

And on this Monday in May, a love mourned.


A

Trend Following Tutorial

In its simplest incarnation, this is Trend Following:


The SHORT on this SPX Weekly chart was generated at the end of the week of Jun 16, 2008 @ 1317.  It was in force until the end of March, 2009 @ 843.  That trade gained 474 SPX points, or about 36%.  It could have been implemented using an unleveraged index, SPY, for about a 36% gain.  It could also have been implemented using a leveraged ETF for approximately double, or triple that return.  The key focus for this tutorial is that the methodology was SHORT during a severe and prolonged market decline. 

The next signal was a LONG signal, as shown on the chart below:


This LONG signal was generated at the end of March, 2009 @ 843.  It was EXITED at the end of January, 2010 @ 1074.  The gain on this LONG was 231 SPX points, or about 27%. 

These two signal totaled over 700 SPX points over the course of about two years.  Such are the market times we are in and unless and until these volatile swings come to an end, this is a simple, mechanical, tradable way to participate successfully in these trends.

The trend line you see on the above charts is based on what is called an Average True Range algorithm.  It was written up in the June, 2009 issue of Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities.  The algorithm I use for these trends is slightly different then the algorithm written up in the article, not that mine is better, but I think it is more tradable. 

Daily Charts

The same algorithm works on Daily charts.  Below are some examples using the same trend model on the SPX Daily chart:


Notice how the Daily Trend Model works in the exact same way as the Weekly Trend Model.  In this case, a LONG signal in early November lasted through late January and gained about 30 SPX points.  Below, the ensuing SHORT signal in late January:



Following the late November, 2009 BUY, the daily trend reversed SHORT in late January, 2009.  Below, the late February LONG signal:


By now this looks the proverbial greatest thing since sliced bread.

Not so fast......looks what happens next:


The SHORT_EXIT(LONG)_SHORT series of signals in late April is a whipsaw, or false alarm signals that quickly get reversed before generating a profit.  It happens. The key to being successful in trend following is to make more money in the trends then you lose in the whipsaws.  This particular trend following algorithm is the best I have seen at accomplishing this feat.  Maybe its the algorithm, maybe its the market, or maybe its the combination thereof, but its working in the NOW and finding something that works NOW is half, no, 3/4 of the battle.  The rest of it is up to the trader to implement the trend following signals.

That is where this service comes in.  The goal here is to identify the trends, monitor the trends and inspire my subscribers to implement strategies to exploit the trends.

In other words,

FIND SOMETHING THAT WORKS.  THEN TRADE IT.

Assuming that we have found something that works, how do we trade it?  This service will keep abreast of the dominant trends in the market while all the time, suggesting various ways to trade those trends.  There is no one right way.  Much of this part is what is comfortable to the individual, based on time and commitment considerations.  That answer is different for everyone.  For some who have little time to monitor the market, using Weekly Trends makes the most sense.  For others who can look at the market every day, Daily Trends make sense.  Still others are full time traders for those, I include Hourly and 240 minute Trend Models. All of the models work the same, they all work off of the identical algorithm.  Most importantly, they all work.

Trend Following Tables

The heart of the Trend Following service are the Trend Following Tables:


In the above table I have identified four trend models each for the SPX and QQQQ.  The CURRENT SIGNAL is identified for each model, along with ENTRY PRICE  for the most recent signal, the CURRENT PRICE and perhas most important of all, the NEXT REVERSAL level.  It is that level where the trend line identified in all of the charts above comes into play in the current market.  If that level is exceeded at the end of the time period being examined, then the trend for that time frame REVERSES.

Included in the service are Trend Following Models for about 50 ETF's and individual stocks.  I do that for ambitious and/or creative subscribers, but the truth is, it is only necessary to use one tradable, the SPX and one time frame,  Daily or Weekly, to reap the benefits of this trend following service.  If in addition to the SPX you have a favorite stock, i.e GOOG, AAPL, GS, or perhaps a favorite sector, i.e. GLD, SLV or UNG, they are all represented in the Daily and Weekly tables.  All of these trend models work the same, the same mechanical, objective, algorithm that identifies the dominant trend for that particular market. 

There are also occasional stock picks or special situations that I bring to the attention of subscribers.  Consider such as "bonuses" to be exploited or ignored as per individual subscriber tastes and tolerance for risk. 

That's the service in a nutshell.  There is more to it, nuances and more complicated trading strategies, but for the most part, the above discussion covers all a subscriber needs to know to profit from the information being provided.

As Ken Kesey wrote in his opus to the 1960's generation, you're either "On the bus, or off the bus," or more appropriately for the 21st century markets, you're either with the trend, or without it.

A

AEZS - news

A couple of significant announcements this morning for AEZS:


Æterna Zentaris: Publication in the Journal of the National Cancer Institute Demonstrates Perifosine Single Agent Potential in Neuroblastoma Tumors


Aeterna Zentaris Receives Positive Opinion for Orphan Medicinal Product Designation for AEZS-108 for the Treatment of Ovarian Cancer from the Committee for Orphan Medicinal Products of the European Medicines Agency



It is incredulous that AEZS remains at a $125M market cap. 

With so many late stage products in development and so much in the pipeline, this looks to me  as 5X to 10X bagger laying in wait. 



A


NNVC - functional cure for HIV/AIDS

The lineup of prestigious research partners continues, an affirmation of the underlying science and ultimately, a much, much higher market cap.  See also the sentence I highlighted in bold.


A

NanoViricides Signs anti-HIV Drug Candidate Testing Agreement with University of California, San Francisco
WEST HAVEN, Conn.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--NanoViricides, Inc. (OTC BB: NNVC.OB) (the "Company"), announced that it has signed a Research Agreement with the University of California, San Francisco (UCSF) for testing of its anti-HIV drug candidates. Cheryl Stoddart, PhD, Assistant Professor in the UCSF Division of Experimental Medicine, will be the Principal Investigator.

Dr. Stoddart is a recognized investigator in preclinical studies of anti-HIV compounds using the standard SCID-hu Thy/Liv humanized mouse model. In particular, she is well known for her work in validating that this mouse model is capable of accurately predicting clinical antiviral efficacy in humans. The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), a division of the National Institutes of Health (NIH), has recognized UCSF as an important site for anti-HIV drug screening studies.

Dr. Stoddart’s in-vivo testing of anti-HIV nanoviricides will complement the Company’s previously announced in-vitro anti-HIV testing that is currently underway at the Southern Research Institute in Frederick, MD.

The Company has previously performed anti-HIV nanoviricides testing in vivo at KARD Scientific, Beverly, MA. In these studies, several nanoviricide drug candidates were shown to have equal effectiveness in terms of multiple parameters to a clinical anti-HIV HAART three-drug cocktail. The HAART cocktail drugs were administered at a much greater total dosage (4,100 mg/kg of HAART) than the nanoviricides (only 150mg/kg of the nanoviricides). This study evaluated several parameters including the reduction of HIV viral load, improvement in CD4+/CD8+ double-positive human T cells, and HIV particle count inside human T cells in the transplant, among others. The best nanoviricide drug candidate was greater than 25X (2,500%) superior to the HAART drug cocktail based on the amount of drug that produced comparable or superior effect. If these results are indicative of clinical response in humans, the Company believes that HIVCide™, its lead drug candidate against HIV, may constitute a “functional cure” for HIV/AIDS, either by itself, or in combination with existing therapies.

“We are very interested to find out how our prior results compare to the standardized studies in Dr. Stoddart’s lab,” said Anil R. Diwan, PhD, President of the Company.

Saturday, May 15, 2010

A Perfect Storm

A "perfect storm" is an expression that describes an event where a rare combination of circumstances will aggravate a situation drastically.

DJIA 15 minute


VXX 30 minute


Value Line 15 minute