Thursday, May 27, 2010

Whatever works

Here is a 240 minute chart of the DJIA:


As with yesterday's SPX chart, prices are in the process of retracing a Fibonacci percentage of the prior decline and a move into the Fibonacci window, accompanied by shorter-term trend SELL signals, will provide an opportunity to enter on the SHORT side.  Late yesterday was the first attempt at this strategy, obviously a fake out.  It may take multiple attempts, nothing worthwhile ever comes easy.  The pay-off, being SHORT for a Wave 3 decline, is easily worth a few whipsaws, i.e.  whatever works.



19 comments:

Anonymous said...

what are good things to buy for this decline?

Allan said...

Bottled water, food, exotic women (or men, not that there is anything wrong with it) and a couple Slap Chops.

Anonymous said...

What decline? It's been going to decline for over a year apparently; I've been suckered into going short no less than 7 times over that period and even though the Dow is down 1000 points this year and I've been short 3 times, I'm down 10%.

Allan said...

Re: what decline?

No wonder you are having trouble making money in the markets.

The SPX topped at 1220 the last week in April. It's now 1090, that's 130 S&P points down in about one month.

That decline.

PENN STATE Eric said...

SLAP CHOP = Hilarious!

I thought we bought low and sold high? Makes sense to me. Guess some can't grasp the line on the chart that says BUY HERE/SELL HERE.

Mike said...

re: whatever works

i'm still wondering if Billy Mays used grecian formula....

-Mike

Anonymous said...

Allan,
Would you be averaging into a short like TZA at this point (Dow up 220)or wait?

Thanks

Anonymous said...

Buy what? tza?

Anonymous said...

whats wong with tza?

Anonymous said...

Good site... dow 10200 now ..does that mean you go long from here?

Anonymous said...

If Allan can help me out on this very worrying trade...I'm short with TZA...I will buy a 2 year paid in advance subscription,

khalid said...

"Whatever works"
Any Colour You Like

Anonymous said...

hi Allan, id like to go off the board and ask an NNVC ? what do you think of the recent financing deal with that company in florida? do think it was a good deal, bad deal, or just an ok deal? are u concerned with any dilution of shares?

thanks

Anonymous said...

Well, the thing of it is ,is that..... its always a tricky game.

and often these indicators,Fib levels,trendlines,,pivot points, elliott waves etc....they do work/ but seem also to work best when looked at together in a complete combination.
I wouldnt want to only count elliott waves,without Also being aware of the fib levels,and trendlines, and MA's all the whole array of tools.

One calculation I find useful and often accurately catches the target zone is this one.....

the 162 % of wave 1 distance.

When it coincides with a key Fib level, and trendline,etc....it proves often correct.

There was a wave 1 movement the other day ,I cant go back and find it now, but the calculation of taking the distance
and adding another 162% yielded a target of S+P 1105.

I didnt get whipsawed.

But I might now if I'm not careful from here.

Weve had three or four up days now,its time for a correction down to test support.and maybe a whipsaw back Upside to close the holiday weekend and allay sheeple fears and avoid a set up for panic selling next week.

Anonymous said...

the USAF today successfully launched a Mach 6 vehicle:

"We equate this leap in engine technology as equivalent to the post-World War II jump from propeller-driven aircraft to jet engines," source

this has implications for international commerce. E.g., FedX @ Mach 6, what does that do for their business model?

ergo, if you believe that world stock markets encompass all commercial future events, then it is reasonable to assume that as a trader you will have to be more fleet of foot in your contact with the market.

on the other hand, most of us have experienced those platinum jade moments such as during athletic completion, catastrophe or being in love where timelessness allow us to experience a second as though it were a lifetime. Viz., in-the-zone.

The jaguar touches the leaves
with his phosphorous absence


~ Pablo Neruda, 'Some Beasts'


ADORO TE DEVOTE

Anonymous said...

Its important in this 'new normal' rigged market game to learn to read the signals of geopolitics, get a sense of the elite mind set, and the way they are playing the game.

hard to do. but worthy of some effort.

Look at XOM and ask yourself why has this powerhouse global dominator stock been moving steady down since last year, while all the other major oilers have made steady uptrends, until the oil spill....whats up with exxon? whats the game ? whats the chess move ? why would the elite gamers want exxon to have a low price going into the summer? You know oil is a geopolitical currency .a tool for economic warfare,etc
food for thought.

Its like other clues...why would George Soros make that comment a while back about gold being in a bubble...and then he goes and buys a boatload.

Why did the market plunge 1000 points on may 6?
and stop right before the 1045 bottom. Why did the last low stop at the 1040 bottom?

Why does the vegas slot machine pay out 30 % ?
Why is the chinese government telling its citizens to buy gold and silver?

a million questions.
no easy answers.

Anonymous said...

check this out: http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/2355-Whistling-Past-The-Graveyard.html

Allan said...

Re: NNVC financing

This company owns the rights to an anti-viral that can wipe-out all viral-based disease on the planet. With that as context, just how important is some penny-ante financing deal?

Anonymous said...

Allan,what are your thoughts about NNVC holding up ok if the market collapses ? How did it fare back in summer/fall collapse of 2008 ? (given that the stock story evolution has developed significantly since then) but just the same...