Friday, May 21, 2010

Perspective

DJIA 60 minute

Waiting for this counter-trend rally to end, note how the projected 4th wave termination straddles the 60 minute trend line.  This says to me that the trend line is a reasonable place to add-on Short positions, if things get that far.  If not, a break of the  Wave 3 low would serve the same purpose.


20 comments:

Anonymous said...

Allan, Love your blog. Can you tell me what service/subscription you use to produce your charts?

Thanks for sharing your insights

Doug

Allan said...

Advanced GET version of eSignal with custom ATR trend algorithm.

Anonymous said...

SP500 v Euro chart correlation

With her ever-changing moods, by turns brooding and gay, chattering and silent, fiery and casual, she aroused in him a thousand desires, awakening instincts or memories. She was the amoureuse of all the novels, the heroine of all the plays, the vague 'she' of all the poetry books.
~ Gustave Flaubert, Madame Bovary, c. 1856, Paris.

Neunundneunzig Luft Ballone

Anonymous said...

what are yr prefereed etf Allan?

Allan said...

Blonde, mid-40's, shapely, intelligent and soft to the touch.

Anonymous said...

Allan, you are sick !!!

NNVC have a nice rebound today ...

Anonymous said...

something for Allan's "Ominous Portents" file:

NYSE chart

the May 6, 2010 spike low was 6666, which rhymes with the March, 2009 SP500 low of 666.

additionally, today's low on NYSE was 6565, which is mirror of May 6. But directly it is mention of June 5, which is said to be when this crash will really begin with definitude.


Little Feat - Feats Don't Fail Me Now

The fog comes
on little cat feet.

It sits looking
over harbor and city
on silent haunches
and then moves on.

~ Carl Sandburg, Fog

Anonymous said...

the bull market in silver will not be over until the NYSE replaces its bronze bull with this sculpture.

Anonymous said...

Blonde, mid-40's, shapely, intelligent and soft to the touch.

Hmmmmmmm.....sounds like me

Gary

Anonymous said...

Gary, you are sicker than Allan ...

Anonymous said...

DJIA and its blue & red moving averages on the weekly chart.

a choice to Neo, to take the blue pill, where "the story ends, you wake up in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe", or to take the red pill, where "you stay in wonderland, and I show you how deep the rabbithole goes."

May 21, 2010 Drudge Report --
Study: Viagra [aka, little blue pill] May Be Linked To Hearing Loss
Researcher At University Of Alabama-Birmingham Studies 11,000 Men Over The Age Of 40; Docs Urge Caution



WHERE IS THE LOVE

Anonymous said...

Allen

So you think Monday is a good time to add to the short position? Like shorting DOW, S&P and QQQQ ?

Allan said...

Re: Monday

Funny you should post that as I was just writing my Weekend Update for subscribers addressing that very topic. It will go out in the morning, after my bike ride, with updated trend tables and some new signals.

As for now, time to kick back, have a glass of milk and some cookies and contemplate how strange and wonderful life can be when it turns on a dime in the most inexplicable way. More on that, Sunday.

A

Anonymous said...

RE: Study: Viagra [aka, little blue pill] May Be Linked To Hearing Loss

WHAT? SPEAK UP!

Mike said...

"Blonde, mid-40's, shapely, intelligent and soft to the touch.

Hmmmmmmm.....sounds like me"

...now that! was funny...

-Mike

Anonymous said...

Allan, thanks for the info on Advanced GET eSignal. For those of us just starting and of lessor means, does MarketClub's Trade Triangles provide similar info?

Thanks again!

Doug

Allan said...

Yes, they both provide a disciplined structure for trend following. However, one is a Ferrari 458 Italia, the other a Ford Model T. You get what you pay for.

A

Anonymous said...

all one big bubble: 1980-2010

something to ponder in light of mega-cycles. All the more compounded by Harry Dent's insights into generational cycles, and withdrawal of capital from markets by boomers, etc.

Ennio Morricone - The Mission
et mundus transit et concupiscentia eius

Anonymous said...

Market will continue down if the government wants it to go down,and will trend back up if they want it to go up. It will go only as far as they want it to go,for as long as they want it to, and will change when they want it to change and change again when they say so,and pull their triggers on the Hal 9000.

Trend following ?

Is there a system that can read the mind of the central bankers and government decision makers?

Anonymous said...

Another perspective.

based on elliott wave counting...... in the Up looking direction.

not computer generated,but human math,fingers and toes,pen to paper.
and some creative thought mixed with intuitive perspective.

Lets play fantasy forecast for the bullish wave structure.

1) Start back at the 2008 september crash. See the last wave of panic selling (from the s+p 800 area down to the bottom at 650 area)
2) throw away the last wave down panic selling.

3) look at the 50 MA where it cuts across the 800 area .....Start there.
Lets call it 780 for fun. Thats the bottom calculation for the Fibonacci's to follow.

(Stay with me on this, you'll see how precise all the numbers come together when we're finished)

Ok, were pretending the bottom stopped at 780 (S+P)
you will also draw trendlines from that zone as well.

4)The top of the wave is 1220 (S+P)
5) Simple Fibonnacci correction points at the 38%,50%,62%
yield these results:

1054 = 38%
1000 = 50%
947 = 62%

Question: where did the plunge and all recent bottoms (including february) stop ?

1060,1055,1045 = 38%

Question: is this the final bottom here?.....mmmmmm maybe not,if this wave count is 3 completed ,4 would be a small rally and 5 would drop some more.

Basic calculation suggests a 5 down would target the 1000 area = 50 % correction from the top at 1220.

This wave completion would be 5 waves down as EITHER wave 1 OR wave A.

Bear trend calls it wave 1 of 5 of 3 going down big.Bull trend calls it wave A of ABC in wave 2 of 5 going Uptrend.

This assessment is the bullish proposal.
To continue,wave 5 down with target in the 1000 area could bottom slightly above that because previous lows at this level stopped at 1029 and 1018 area. 1010 is also possible.
This wave structure would complete 5 waves down as wave A.
Rally wave B goes UP to target 1115-1135 zone.
Wave C goes down to the 950 zone.
Whats the magnetic attraction at 950 area? The June top from last year. This would be 62% correction from the top at 1220. based on a 'panic free' bottom of 780.
Alternative to this as the lowest bottom for the ABC correction ,would be the 1000 area as the completed bottom. This would suggest wave A is complete at 1055,wave B rallies to 1135 area,fails there and wave C falls to 1000.
1000 = 50 % correction.ABC structure suggests UPTREND continues.Target 1300-1350 area.