Monday, May 10, 2010

A chart with no name

10 comments:

Anonymous said...

Allan,

What is your take on the bounce this morning? Can your trend keep up with the madness that appears to be starting?

Anonymous said...

good fellow,what you call 'madness' ,I call the beautiful plunge protection team.

enjoy your time here in Vegas

Allan said...

My take: the shorts are nervous, wanting to bail on their position because, "Europe is solved" and bull market is back.

Can anyone see Waves 1 & 2 in the chart?

pimaCanyon said...

well, this could be wave 2, a near perfect fib retracement (.62) of wave 1 (talking waves 1 and 2 down here). However, other counts are certainly possible here, some of which are bullish. Rather than betting on one of the counts, the odds favor sticking with your trend following system.

Good luck all!

Allan said...

The beauty of the trend following models is that there is no analysis, just one simple trend line with prices on one side of the trend, or the other. Frees up time to speculate on things like Elliott Waves and horses names Fibonacci.

Anonymous said...

If we consider the possibility that the market will defy the elliott gods once again,and this becomes the start of a new wave up

to a new high

and we start from the low of thursdays plunge... and
count that rocket recovery move to 1138 as wave 1

you can see the next wave action down to fridays low as wave 2

you can see fridays continued action up and down as subwave 1 and 2 of the wave 3 that would blast up

this morning opened with that wave 3 of 3 blasting up. that has to be called a wave 3 movement.


peaking now at 1163

looking for a wave 4 correction to play out today correcting somewhere fibo logical
like 1138....1133 would be the 50% fib from 1103

and then wave 5 going up to test resistance levels at 1180 and 1200.

its not hard to figure it all out. its easy really.

but wait,theres more.

If you count the first wave up movement as wave 1
(from 1065 to 1138)

lets call that 70 points for simple math.
the formula for target top is 162% of that move.

that becomes a target top of around the 1250 area on the s+p


aside from all this TA math

its all a big guessing game.

its all in the hands of god
and GS.

Anonymous said...

I guess we need to see how the rest of the price action goes in the next few days.holding up at support around 1138 1130(s+p) area would be bullish for continuation.

and then ,if failing to break above 1160 could be bearish for more down.

1130 to 1160 is the battlezone
underway now.

Anonymous said...

Everything is up right now,of course,

but JINFF (jinshan gold)

is up 15%

the other miners are up normal - 4%,like the market.

Anonymous said...

Allan, to match your trend line i had to tweak the ATR stop changing parameters from 7 / 1.5 you suggested earlier (November 2009) to 5/1.8

Is these the numbers you are using lately? Do you adjust them chart to chart?

Thanks,
LK

Allan said...

Re: ATR parameters

I am using 7.0/2.0 for most all charts, with notable exception of Income Stocks which use 7.0/4.0.

I'm pretty sure it doesn't matter all that much over the long run, so pick the multiplier that triggers a frequency of trades that fits your trading style.

If I were starting over, I'd probably opt for a 3.5 or 4.0 multiplier for all stocks, fewer trades, but less management needed.