Friday, July 23, 2010

The view from West Hollywood

Here is the weekly SPX Trend Model and the reason that all of the shorter term Sell signals have carried so much weight:

SPX Weekly Trend Model

Respecting this chart is not about being a perma-bear.  It is about recognizing a major trend change in the past few months and trying to anticipate an acceleration of the developing new downtrend.  Unless and until this model reverses LONG, the opportunities for significant profits lay on the SHORT side.  The SPX is a couple of months into a sideways to up consolidation.  This too shall pass and according to EW patterns, it should end with a vengeance.

I am in LA  for a few days, to attend a Jackson Browne concert,  to just get out of the Arizona high desert heat, to refresh and renew, to gain new perspectives and to recharge for a heck of a market ride in the second half of this year. The view from West Hollywood is contained in this chart, in my words above, in my plans to stake out a fountain of profits in the months ahead.  You are invited to come along for the ride, if you are so inclined. 

A

10 comments:

Allan said...

Re: NNVC

The stock has declined in a spate of mindless selling, a pattern that has been a part of owning NNVC from the beginning. Last year NNVC dropped from over $1 to under $0.50. At that time, I was banging the table to load up on it. It then ran from under 50c to over $2.50 in less then a year.

We are at a similar juncture now. With the advent of my trend models, I am awaiting reversals LONG on the shorter-term NNVC Trend Models before banging the table once again. I'll provide that shout-out to my subscribers first, then post it here publicly.

A

Stan Trenton said...

"Respecting this chart is not about being a perma-bear. It is about recognizing a major trend change..."

Yes, and to get an even cleaner view
of the current ongoing down-trend, just apply
your Trend-Following overlay to a monthly chart.
It is so simple, so clear...
Stan

Anonymous said...

it is never so simple. dont be a polyanna.
it is always a tricky game even when you have a reliable trading system like Allan has. Even he gets badly whipsawed,just like recently.

The markets are completely rigged and manipulated in a million ways ,daily.

There is no system model that can be created by any 'outsider' than can descipher the 'insider' market master controllers system.

It is not Simple. trust me on that.

Simple is just following Allan's model signals.....do that if you want.
that takes no thought on your part.

If you did follow and trade along side it this week, you got crushed .

Simple. this is not to say I dont like Allan's mechanical system,I think it has good vision...for 70 % of everything.

But I'm not satisfied with that,because the 30 % vision his system misses...is a vision that I happen to see coming. I miss other moments and lose out. but so be it.

In any case,the technical outlook from previous bottoms to current tops ,in the current wave structure, which looks like an ABC developing....shows a target of

S+P 1140

Big resistance here at 1100 of course, I expect a correction to lower supports,obvious ones are 1080,1070,1060.... 1040 is critical to hold . All key moving averages and fibs are at these levels.

This week, has shown,once again, that the government does not sit idle on the sidelines watching markets do their thing. The government is the rigged game master, pulling all the strings and levers and the market does what they want it to do.

I dont believe this is one of Prechter's Elliott wave principles.

but I do believe it is what the government calls the "new normal"

It has everything to do with the PPT,HFTrading computers,control of government finance by Goldman and the Fed...the BIS, Global new world order powers in control behind the scenes.
and the first commandment I see now is that
IF 'they' want the market to go up.... it will go up.
IF they want the market to go down,it will go down.
IF they want to f*ck with a country,like greece, or iran,or north korea, or sudan,or whatever they want, for economic or geopolitical reasons that we cannot know ...they will do it.
crash the euro, rise the dollar, plunge the dollar, rise the euro, crash gold, china rises gold, and on and on.... it is Not simple.
It is a monumentally complex global chess match between global powers that also pull the levers of war and destruction as well as economic war,and their manipulation of markets and economies are just moves on a chess board.

I believe Prechter would say his theory says all this is part and parcel of the wave 3 collapse we're heading for. Maybe it is,and my flaw in vision is that I'm not lookinh farther out into the distance on a multi year time frame. I need to start with the 1636 Tulip bubble.the war of 1812 and the last important event was the creation of the Rothschild Fed in 1913.
Right now, they have painted a perfect chart,a monkey could see it if I can, and it points to a continuation up to a top target of
S+P 1140
Maybe they will give us all a great shake out scare by plunging back to 1040 first.

Then again...maybe they WANT us to see this 1140 target so they can screw us at 1120 and plunge from there. who knows.

Where will the system model trigger the real plunge point??

Will this be the same time the government wants it to plunge?

Anonymous said...

it is never so simple. dont be a polyanna.
it is always a tricky game even when you have a reliable trading system like Allan has. Even he gets badly whipsawed,just like recently.

The markets are completely rigged and manipulated in a million ways ,daily.

There is no system model that can be created by any 'outsider' than can descipher the 'insider' market master controllers system.

It is not Simple. trust me on that.

Simple is just following Allan's model signals.....do that if you want.
that takes no thought on your part.

If you did follow and trade along side it this week, you got crushed .

Simple. this is not to say I dont like Allan's mechanical system,I think it has good vision...for 70 % of everything.

But I'm not satisfied with that,because the 30 % vision his system misses...is a vision that I happen to see coming. I miss other moments and lose out. but so be it.

In any case,the technical outlook from previous bottoms to current tops ,in the current wave structure, which looks like an ABC developing....shows a target of

S+P 1140

Big resistance here at 1100 of course, I expect a correction to lower supports,obvious ones are 1080,1070,1060.... 1040 is critical to hold . All key moving averages and fibs are at these levels.

This week, has shown,once again, that the government does not sit idle on the sidelines watching markets do their thing. The government is the rigged game master, pulling all the strings and levers and the market does what they want it to do.

I dont believe this is one of Prechter's Elliott wave principles.

but I do believe it is what the government calls the "new normal"

It has everything to do with the PPT,HFTrading computers,control of government finance by Goldman and the Fed...the BIS, Global new world order powers in control behind the scenes.
and the first commandment I see now is that
IF 'they' want the market to go up.... it will go up.
IF they want the market to go down,it will go down.
IF they want to f*ck with a country,like greece, or iran,or north korea, or sudan,or whatever they want, for economic or geopolitical reasons that we cannot know ...they will do it.
crash the euro, rise the dollar, plunge the dollar, rise the euro, crash gold, china rises gold, and on and on.... it is Not simple.
It is a monumentally complex global chess match between global powers that also pull the levers of war and destruction as well as economic war,and their manipulation of markets and economies are just moves on a chess board.

I believe Prechter would say his theory says all this is part and parcel of the wave 3 collapse we're heading for. Maybe it is,and my flaw in vision is that I'm not lookinh farther out into the distance on a multi year time frame. I need to start with the 1636 Tulip bubble.the war of 1812 and the last important event was the creation of the Rothschild Fed in 1913.
Right now, they have painted a perfect chart,a monkey could see it if I can, and it points to a continuation up to a top target of
S+P 1140
Maybe they will give us all a great shake out scare by plunging back to 1040 first.

Then again...maybe they WANT us to see this 1140 target so they can screw us at 1120 and plunge from there. who knows.

Where will the system model trigger the real plunge point??

Will this be the same time the government wants it to plunge?

Anonymous said...

It is likely that the wave 2-C (of wave primary 3) will unfold till end of next week to the price of 1130-1150. Or if the wave count is not right, this rally wave is the 2nd leg up from 3/2009. Bearish sentiments show that the market should have more room to run and longer time on the upside.

Anonymous said...

Go see your girl. She's at the Fitness Factory right there in Boys town. ;)
Best,
Goldfungus

Stan Trenton said...

To the 1st Anonymous,
"it is never so simple. dont be a polyanna."
Well, what Allan has so generously provided with his trend-following overlay is perspective and I use it as indication of the trend, on many different time frames, to tell me which direction to trade.
I thank him for his freely sharing this most valuable overlay.
I'm happy to say that I do use it, along with other overlays, indicators & price action, to make a trading profit.
Cheers,
Stan

Mike said...

Allan,

Thanks very much for this weekly overlay….it’s easy to loose site of it.

Hope the peculiarities of LA are treating you well:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bf4x36XKhsM

-Mike (in NY):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WZ88oTITMoM

Anonymous said...

How does the SPX Daily Trend Model look?

Anonymous said...

How does the SPX_240 Trend Model look?