Monday, July 26, 2010

Emerging Opportunity

According to this wave count, the market is tracing out an ABC 4th wave, now into the 50% Fibonacci retracement window of the entire decline from late April and nearing the level of the previous 4th wave from mid-June. 




With the Advanced GET Elliott Oscillator back to the zero line and the False Bar Stochastic at a double top Sell signal pending, the market is setting up for another fall.   We have had several false alarms to the downside and maybe this is just another one of those.....but I doubt it.  That stochastic double top is a highly reliable trigger and should it issue a Sell signal (it hasn't done so yet) I intend to take it in conjunction with what should be some shorter-term trend model Sell signals. 

These are time tested indicators and price patterns.  They are not perfect, nor is anything else in market timing.  But I use them for a reason, i.e. they work more often then they don't.  

As an aside, I found this chart on another site and thought that since it dovetails nicely with the above analysis I would share it here:





A

6 comments:

pimaCanyon said...

yep, I saw that Saturn/Uranus chart as well. My hesitation with it now is that lots of folks have seen it at this point and the market has a way of fooling lots of folks when they believe they have figured out something that is a sure thing.

However, this timing band--the next 3 weeks or so--is seeing some things that occur astrologically only once every few hundred years or so. If you put any credence into financial astrology, any one of these astro events could cause a market turn, so I suspect the next 3 weeks will give us some wild markets. Unfortunately that could play out as markets that turn on a dime, creating lots of whipsaws. I hope not, I hope it soon becomes obvious that the market is taking a definite direction. Right now it seems that that direction is up, so we will just have to see what Saturn/Uranus opposition and Mars/Saturn conjunction in opposition to Uranus (later this week) and the other aspect do to this new uptrend.

Anonymous said...

Mr. Market is a slippery rascal. His usual modus operandi is to lure everyone into a bullish euphoria. But, because the retail investor has fled the markets and the economic reality is so bleak, he has had to resort to a totally new ploy to bring about euphoria, the conspiracy theory.

Today's bullish euphoria has taken the form of a belief that the forces that are manipulating this market (and THERE ARE huge forces manipulating this market) are limitless. Therefore, the market participants who remain in this slattern whore of a market are convinced that the bulls are about to slaughter the bears. Maybe so, but I have another view.

If there are manipulators, those manipulators are the central bankers, who will do anything to save their bankrupt vampire lords, the too big to fail failures. Their church is market sentiment and their messiah is Keynes. Momentum is everything to these people. If they were all powerful, would they have let the market top on April 23? Why did they stop?

They stopped because they ran out of room to maneuver. They are not all powerful. I'll tell you why this little conspiracy has to fail, reality and the observation that there is no honor among thieves. The Euro can't be made to rally forever because it supports a bankrupt collection of economies. Similarly, the dollar will not continue to fall to zero. It doesn't matter what China wants, they won't be able to save the Euro. China's customers only care about themselves and those customers are panicked.

The "Tag, your currency is It" game will eventually come to an end, as well as the market pump. This crooked market will eventually turn upon itself.

I don't buy the talk about the inside powers goosing the market and killing the shorts. It is just a substitute for the usual topping euphoria talk that invests normal market tops. Nobody will believe in the green shoots, so sly old dog, Mr. Market, invents the conspiracy that won't allow the markets to fall. Never, never, ever. Yeah, right.

I don't believe in the Tooth Fairy, and I don't believe this market will blossom into a new bull market. The economy is just too messed up. Yes, they can run the market up, but I think that kind of manipulation just generates kinetic energy in the other direction unless the economy wakens to save the day. That's not going to happen. The markets will eventually have to pay the price for these deceptions, not because of truth, justice, or what is right and good. The day of reckoning for ramping up the markets will come because there's no free lunch, narcissistic fools always wreck everything, and this has all happened before.

Smiddywesson

t said...

I suspect thet the global market masters use the services of the most complex computer systems that strategise every conceivable event and its reaction that could happen in their global chess game. And these computer systems alongside the human think tank geniuses are seeing the global movements a dozen moves, or a hundred moves ahead of real time.... and every thing that happens on a global level is put into the computer and a new piece of data is spit out that tells the movers and shakers what to do, what to say ,in what Fed press conference,what central banker announcement, what military ship to reposition where, what false flag strike to plan, when to carry it out, in what country this time, and on and on.


What they do to manipulate the stock market is just one piece on their global chess board.

..........................

The astrological planetary aspects,I just looked again at the ephemeris, (I'm an astrologer)

shows a T-Square, thats the correct name for it...not 'cardinal convergence'

a tension aspect between 4 or 5 planets that have come together in a 180 degree angle(opposition) with some of them in between at a 90 degree angle, so the thing looks like the letter "T"

the planets are mars,saturn,jupiter,uranus and pluto.

the big stress planets in this combination are pluto,saturn and uranus.
IF these planets came to clash at exactly the same degree (such as 3 degrees ) saturn at 3 Libra,Pluto at 3 Capricorn AND Uranus at 3 aries...THEN you would have a strong indication of turmoil ready to pop.
BUT this is not what is happening. the planets are not close enough to make for a heavy energy.

Almost but not quite.

The closest connecting points are showing a few planets connecting at 0 degrees but the other planets are at 3 degrees...then in august these planets keep moving and shifting and never quite conjoin at the same degrees.

There is a day here and there which might bring some sense of turmoil ,just a taste of it, but I dont think anything major will play out.

Friday july 30 is a day to watch for friday august 6 is a day...and last june around june 25 and 27 for what that was worth.

T

Anonymous said...

If they were so smart, they wouldn't have taken all the wrong steps since this debacle began in 2007 (or during the last ten years for that matter). These are the same people who caused all this.

If they were so smart, the $3.5 trillion spent (that we know about) would have resulted in more than a slow melt up on pathetic volume. No, they are too smart for their own good and are only digging themselves in deeper. They have no wisdom, only the instinct of a rat to save itself.

Computer programs are written by people. There is no computer program in the world that can adequately model the risks in play today. By manuevering for time and trying to avoid confronting our economic problems, they increase the exposure to a spontaneous event triggering the very response they seek to prevent. The world is awash with such dangers. Pick just one, say Iran, and ask yourself if these computer models know how to deal with that flaring up. Their vaunted programs couldn't even handle the flash crash.

The manipulators are not as competent as everyone thinks, and they aren't the saviors of the markets, they are a terminal virus.

Smiddy

Allan said...

Scary scenario, Smiddy, the piper is standing stage left, waiting for his or her grand entrance. The smugness of the pollyanna bulls will be wiped clean in one fell swoop, coming soon to a cosmos near you. Speaking of which, here is the latest from Arch Crawford:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/crawford-says-apocalypse-begins-monday-2010-07-26

Anonymous said...

"If they were so smart they wouldnt have taken all the wrong steps...."

maybe this global chess game they are playing,maybe the 'wrong steps' they are taking, the steps that look 'wrong' to us....may be the 'right steps' to them, as they precisely play out their strategy.

i.e. maybe they actually want to collapse the global economies...maybe thats one of their key moves in the grand chess game.

maybe they want to create wars.
maybe they want to kill the gulf of mexico.
maybe they want to ....(fill in the blank)

if they have some greater plan,thought thru 100 moves ahead of the one you just watched.

thats my point.

I dont believe for a second that the powers in control are ....stupid,naiive,dumb,careless, ignorant, etc.

the moves they make dont come from ignorance and selfish greed and stupidity.

They come from well thought out schemes and manipulations, aided by the groups of brilliant think tank minds and super computers and behind the scenes deals between the same kind of people in control of the other teams(adversaries and allies)
to work together at times,to work against each other at times...and take things one or two steps at a time, while seeing 100 movements ahead of time.

Whatever their grand plan is,we can only guess at.

but I believe they will use every tool available at their disposal.and their tools include weapons of mass destruction,military and economic.

their tools also include real diplomacy and cooperation and humanity.

but it seems lately in the last .... 20 years, they have been using much more, the tools of war and destruction.

I wonder why that is.

Maybe thats what a dying empire does when a new empire is ascending .

If we're lucky, the world will avoid Armagheddon.

Maybe theres an extinction size comet heading for the earth which they havent dare tell us about,and its all a sealed fate.

I wonder what their bunker world looks like in their caves carved into the rocky mountains.

I wonder why the seed bank is being stored in Norway of all places.
Maybe if theres a pole shift,norway will become like the mediterranean....that makes sense. Bill Gates would know the answer.

I wonder about alot of things.maybe thats what a thinking person does when he is totally helpless and powerless,watching the global chess game playing out.

"The manipulators are not as competent as everyone thinks..."

I believe they are.

Do you think BP didnt really know what it was drilling into ? an elephant oil and gas field the size of mount everest?

Do you think they didnt know what the effects of using a million gallons of Corexit would do to the mix of toxic oil and gas?

But the elite powers who control the global chess game,I do believe they are following a grand plan.
and its looking uglier and more frightening every season that passes.

Remember in 1990 when the soviet union broke up and progressive minded people were envisioning a new dawn of peace and prosperity, reduced military funding,more money for humanistic progress etc....what a naiive frame of mind. I believed the idea too.
what a naiive frame of mind. Look what has happened instead.
Neocon control of the USA,creating a larger more dangerous military monster terrorizing the world.

but at least I'm having a good crop of tomatoes this year....