Monday, July 12, 2010

Solar Stocks

Continuing on the theme from The Oil Volcano, the sun has been shining on solar stocks in recent days.   Here are three solar stocks that trend well and provide short-term trading opportunites:






All three are in Daily up-trends, which is all we need to know to trade in and out of them.  Nonetheless, that False Bar Stochastic is ominously close to a Sell signal.  My strategy would be to wait here, if the FBS goes into trend mode, then buy, or if alternatively the FBS triggers a Sell signal, go with the downside play. 

On the other hand, take a look at this private company, Nanosolar, which may have revolutionized solar energy with their proprietary thin film solar panels:

Named Best Invention of the Year 2008 by Time Magazine
There are countless ways to manufacture solar panels, but there's only one metric that counts: how the cost of solar power compares with that of electricity from fossil fuels. Until energy from the sun can beat energy from coal at the marketplace, solar will remain a niche player, adorning the rooftops of those who care more for their green reputation than for their bottom lines. Enter Nanosolar, a San Jose-based start-up that manufactures thin-film solar panels. Unlike the bulky silicon panels that dominate the solar market, Nanosolar thin-film technology is light and extremely cheap to make. The key is the manufacturing process: while silicon panels need to be baked in batches, Nanosolar's thin-film panels roll off the assembly line, as if from a printing press.
Keep an eye out for Nanosolar going public, or, some other back-door way to invest in it, i.e. owning shares of public companies that may have already taken stakes in Nanosolar

A
 

12 comments:

Anonymous said...

"The Rise of Big Solar". The Economist. April 15, 2010. http://www.economist.com/business-finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=15911021

Some excerpts: The company with the largest utility-scale pipeline is First Solar, one of the pioneers of what are called “thin-film” cells.First Solar’s panels, which use cadmium telluride instead of silicon, cost less than a dollar a watt to make, which makes them cheaper than any silicon-based rivals. Its output is about a gigawatt a year. Last year it signed a deal to start manufacturing in China and entered Forbes magazine’s list of fast-growing tech companies in the top slot. Some hedge funds have been shorting First Solar on the basis that plummeting prices for normal cells will undermine its advantage. It is also possible that it will be leapfrogged. There are various start-ups looking to make even cheaper thin films, such as Nanosolar, in California, and HelioVolt, though they have yet to show that they can reliably produce efficient cells on a large scale. This is one of the arguments for looking instead at another solar technology, solar thermal, which uses mirrors to concentrate heat, produce steam and thus drive turbines. Efficient solar-thermal plants can in principle be built on the same sort of scale as gas-fired power stations, a few hundred megawatts at a time. Brightsource Energy, based in California, recently received government loan guarantees for a project in the Mojave desert which, if completed, could deliver more power than all the photovoltaic cells installed in America last year.

Anonymous said...

Nano here and there and everywhere

rob g. said...

allan
a while back one of your readers recommended dpdw. they offer services to deep sea oil companies. i noticed its been getting beat up as of late, any opinion on it?

thanks
rob g..

Allan said...

re: dpdw

all trends pointing lower, wouldn't go near it.

Anonymous said...

Ive read that the whole solar industry is really still in its early stages, and ,still too expensive to be economically developed, thus consolidation among companies is happening to try and establish one strong player that could go somewhere,(like first solar,only better)....its pushed by market media as the next big thing,jump onboard, but in reality is far from really making a dent in the energy industry. Its mostly alot of hype for 'Green energy' pushing the idea, but not really profitable for investors.

But.... as a simple in and out trade, any stock that has a bubble sentiment among the public can be traded for profit,I suppose.

The key word is short term trade versus investment long term.

Anonymous said...

Allan, what do you think of todays weak bearish sentiment ....here we are at a major fib topping zone, after a big rally off the bottom,if the trend is strongly downward one would think the bears would be jumping all over the market here to go short .
but instead its holding in neutral ....at least today anyway.
no sharp sell off.
not like early May top or june 21 top. today's neutrality looks different .

volume is weak.
Is it just that everybody is waiting for earnings reports to signal something?

It smells funny to me. I'm sensing something odd with the picture.

charts look like theyre in a big neutral zone now.

SDS and QID bounced off the 50 MA to jump start but not going anywhere strongly.
thats pretty weak.

where are all the panic sellers ?

this feels like a change of sentiment.

my rigged market meter says the government engineers want the market to hold up at supports and steady the ship.

not ready for collapse time yet.

not ready for war. not ready for chaos.

Allan said...

The market's first leg down took place from 2007-early 2009. It then corrected for about a year to around current levels. That correction looks about over to me, opening the door for a resumption of the big bear market. Whether it starts now, or next week, or next month, pales in comparison to the downside potential.

Anonymous said...

I can agree with that, but timing of shorter term trading a few weeks or a month or two, can easily mean watching (or trading) market movements that translate into 30,or 50 thousand dollars of missed profit while waiting, or lost profit not taken, etc....so when you say the greater big move is more important....yes I'm sure it will be....but the interim shorter term shouldnt be dismissed or left unobserved.

Steve said...

RE: The Oil Volcano

Alan and friends, I sincerely recommend that everyone go out of your way to see the new documentary "Gasland." It's currently showing multiple times every week on HBO. I watched it this weekend and I've never been more terrified about our future - not even by listening to Prechter.

Natural gas my friends, is not the answer. At least, not the way we're doing it now and not if you love your family, friends, or anything else that inhabits the earth.

Watch it soon and tell a friend!!!

http://gaslandthemovie.com/

http://www.hbo.com/documentaries/gasland/synopsis.html

Ubreako said...

Question on NNVC. The Pharma for the MTA announcement is due anytime correct ?

Anonymous said...

Tuesday july 13, at market open(and last nites news)
Yahoo headlines
"Public's faith in Obama hits new low..."

which translates into the contrarian rigged game clue as meaning

now watch them turn on the HFT computers and blast the market up and beyond normal expectation,while everyone is expecting markets to fall...ergo...message to public... "trust the system,trust Obamanomics,have faith america, keep hope alive, believe in the new normal, get yer money into the game, dont bail out now (like you should)
dont believe the lousy poll numbers.
stay onboard the usa titanic, theres no iceberg happening here,our supercomputers are whizzing along ,go out and buy a new car and get a new credit card and use it for groceries...those were the last two commercials I heard on the clock radio as I was getting up today....buy a new car and use a new credit card for groceries,drug store,gas station....stay the reckless course america. nothings wrong . sit back and watch the all star game.

Obama's poll numbers hit new low....watch the market go up.

Anonymous said...

What kind of reality are we living in?

Which fantasy version is in control today?

What is this new normal they told us to believe in?

Look at the movies hollywood is throwing at us these days....fantasy,altered reality....alice in wonderland...pretend to live in a different reality.

government not allowing public to see the disaster in the gulf of mexico.... pretend that its ok.

all fundamental economic indicators showing foreboding warnings...pretend its ok.

price of cat food Tripled in last 2 years !! pretend its ok.

baseball game? 40 bucks
rock concert? 100 bucks
day pass at disneyland? 80 bucks

wheres Madonna? she became lady ga ga....is that a clone,like dolly the sheep?
Yes. it is a clone. pretend its Madonna.

gold bars? or titanium,at fort knox? who knows.

is your vision 2 D or 3 D?
doesnt matter.
look in the mirror, its the mad hatter.