Thursday, July 08, 2010

Hourly SPX Trend Model

Here is an updated look at  my hourly SPX Trend Model:

SPX_60


The above model not perfect, nor is it intended to be.  Nonetheless, it is up over 25 S&P points with its latest Buy signal.  I've pounded the table to ",Respect the trends," over and over again, yet even I am guilty of transgressions against this mantra.  Just when we think we may know it all, karma humbles us.  

Meanwhile, the EW analysis remains the same, expecting new lows before this pattern is complete.  Wave 5 target remains 960-860:





A

13 comments:

Anonymous said...

In 24 hours you've predicted the market going down, then going up, then I think down again... it's hard to tell anymore.

I'm sure tomorrow we'll hear you were "right", no matter what happens.

Allan said...

Thank you for being civil in your criticism of my work.

Nonetheless, I take issue with your suggestion that I am going to spin results to make me look good, no matter what happens to the market. We can all read here, it's no stretch to conclude that my analysis for the past few days has been off the mark.

It happens. No one can be consistently accurate with their market forecasting, no one. It is only natural that I tone it down when I miss and trumpet my success when I nail it. Small price to have to put up with to see my charts every day. But if even that is too much, you can bypass AllAllan entirely and seek perfection elsewhere. Good luck on that.

A

Anonymous said...

Checking in from New Orleans.

Made a simple modification to my last trade using the 240 minute model.

After the trend gives you a return greater than 10%, establish a stop using the 60 minute reversal price. It will lock-in a profitable trade and keep the manipulators away from your money.

Allan.....Keep up the good work

Allan said...

Because there is great value to these trend models, especially in the individual stocks that have kicked ass over the course of the past six months. There is also big picture perspective from the longer term models which continue to point to lower prices ahead. With a subscription renewal rate up around 90%, there is a lot to say for sharing this work. Again, the trend following paradigm is not perfect but over the long run, it works and will generate outstanding returns.

A

Allan said...

Re: NOLA

An excellent tweak and one that can easily be implemented with the Intraday tables that get sent periodically throughout the day. Another example of the benefits of the service, providing a base of data from which individual traders can adapt and prosper from the underlying trends.

Anonymous said...

Anyone expecting 100% accurate forecasting is being unrealistic. That said, I have made some good money using Allan's analysis, and I expect that trend to continue. And I am not a member, but plan on becoming one in a couple of months. (Waiting for the market to choose a solid trend - too afraid of the chop for now.)I am grateful for the analysis that Allan has given us for free! - Holly

Anonymous said...

Anon,

Let's focus the argument.

Elliott Wave is based on the premise that human sentiment acts in waves, and therefore is reflected in the stock market.

Prechter himself acknowledges that, although the market is generally a great place to measure those waves, there is a big difference between the market and human sentiment. I can't find anyplace where he makes the next logical inference, so I'll have to point it out for you. When markets are heavily manipulated by outside forces large enough to bring about a significant result, they no longer reflect human sentiment, they reflect the will of the manipulators.

Don't blame the tool when it doesn't work in unintended circumstances. If you are sitting by the pond counting the waves and the PPT do a big ole cannonball, it doesn't mean EWT is broken. The manipulation in the ES is an established fact (multiple 2000 contract bids that are immediately withdrawn). For the sake of this discussion, it doesn't matter who is doing the manipulation, you just have to adapt.

If anything, these events SUPPORT Prechter's beliefs. The classic example is how the markets crashed when Kennedy was assassinated, and then went right on to resume their bullish trend. It's played out the same way this week (so far). If you look at the futures market, you see the PPT performing their cannonball. If you look at Tuesday's price action, you see the wave they produced. Maybe this was a legit rally, but I sure don't see any follow through.

All I see now is a stalled rally and a lot of blown out stops removing the oversold conditions which would have been an obstacle to further declines. My bet is this rally will fizzle BECAUSE of their little shennagans. Creating false hopes tend to boomerang.

EWT still works find, but the market manipulation means you can't trust it blindly in shorter term trading. Conditions are just too unpredictable.

Speaking in general, not to you specifically, there's just no substitute for common sense, and blaming someone else for a lack of it isn't going to help your trading.

Smiddy

Anonymous said...

If there is anyone in the trading world who still doubts that these markets are manipulated, hope over to the Afraidtotrade.com web site and review his July 7 entry, wherein he posts a video of level II price action created by Karl Denninger. Nobody but the puppetmasters, Ben Bernanke and his pet giant squid, can predict this market all of the time.

Smiddy

Anonymous said...

Smiddy,

Excellent explanation.

Allan,

For about the past 30 days (since June 8) I've been tracking 3 traders and their calls. By far you have been the most spot-on.

I hope you can get your web site up and running.

Based on what I've seen of your signals and trading I plan to subscribe at some point in the future.

Anonymous said...

I've been reading this blog for over a year, and one of the reasons I come back is that this trader is very open about his failures as well as his successes.

He is also very open about his methodology--anyone can benefit from his columns, whether or not they subscribe.

And look at his track record, for crying out loud. The guy obviously knows what he's doing.

My local weather station doesn't get it right every forecast either, but when they say "Rain", I get out the umbrella. Haven't been sorry yet.

Anonymous said...

Allan, what it seems to me is anyone who reads your public blog is at risk of major losses, I know I had them. You tend to give your subscribers the pre-buy alerts then one 'must' assume tell them to sell, where here its just the pump and no further guidance. Hence this is a very dangerous place to get any market guidance on stocks. You list of huge loosers grows daily in the MMRF's, and all the bio tech stocks.

Anonymous said...

It's hard to pick stocks in a bear market.

But maybe you knew that already, yes?

Are the other stock pickers doing any better?

The picks I've seen here have done very well despite the overall market trend.

Mike said...

on Smiddy's point about the PPT...

here's a good read:

http://www.illuminati-news.com/pdf/TheVisibleHand%5B1%5D.pdf

I find it ironic that the '08-'09 meltdown occurred in the midst of a changing of the guard, (Bush to Obama).

A purging between administations...

Allan's trend algo has moved with it lock step.

Per NOLA modification above....nothing wrong with using algo at the front end and locking in when you deem appropriate.

Great work Allan....you're giving us a drogue to work from.

-Mike