We might want to give the same thanks for the attached Trend Models. If you put aside my own stubborn bearishness, after scalping about 8% on the downside, the models are up about 5% on the latest slew of Buy signals.
SPX_60 Trend Model
My commentaries notwithstanding, this is some excellent market timing. The EW picture remains the same, this spike-up does not eliminate or ever alter the wave count, but as you can see, the market is not going to turn down until it is ready and the legions of bears are completely demoralized. We are not there yet, but we're getting there.
SPX_240 Trend Model
3 comments:
This makes my brain hurt, why do we need the bears to be completely demoralized before the down trend resumes, Surely the more people shorting the market the more likely it is to go down?
bollinger, (rubber), band was stretched pretty good....
nice bounce back....
as usual, great work Allan.
-Mike
I wonder now,if there might be a new surprize twist for the market,because of the latest news in the gulf of mexico disaster.
They are now saying they expect this new cap to work and stop the gushing.
whether this is true or not, they might easily be able to spin it as true.hopefully it will be true just because its so urgent to stop the disaster from getting worse... but I wonder what they can do with the big spin in the media ,inn such a way as to drive the market up even further upon this release of "good news"
will it push oil up higher, general market indexes higher. will it stifle any downward reversal ?
sure seems like the kind of good news that ought to have some sort of market moving effect.
Iwas preparing to go short now with inverse ETF's but now wondering if it might be sensible to wait another day, to see how all this plays out.
It has that funny feel to me, like a trick, an ace up their sleeve theyre gonna pull with this story.
The reality of the gulf disaster is probably extremely catastrophic, as in all life become dead in the gulf waters, upcoming hurricane winds will blow the toxic fumes across the entire eastern seaboard.... but for tomorrow,a happy spin story, throws a wrench in the bear plunge reversal.
I wonder.
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