Friday, July 09, 2010

Stocks - update

Finally, the long-in-the-tooth SELL SIGNAL on X may be reversing:

X Daily Trend Model


The current SHORT was initiated on April 9, 2010 @ 62.62.  The model will reverse LONG today if X closes above 41.94, which appears likely.   That about a 33% gain in about three months.  

After six months of real time results, it does appear that the individual stocks trend longer and stronger then the indexes and ETF's.  Percentage returns don't care about the underlying source of the profits, its a dollars and cents analysis.


Google is showing a similar pattern:

GOOG Daily Trend Model

GS is still on it's April SHORT:

GS Daily Trend Model

AMZN Daily Trend Model

4 comments:

t said...

well now thats interesting...

so youre showing the monthly ,weekly, S+P chart from hell, a market ready to collapse


and yet here are some core blue chips that have had their day in hell, and are ready to recover....

what does that all mean?


and on top of this concept....other sectors are doing their own thing different from the S+P....like the gold and silver miners and precious metals..... these charts did not go sailing down with the indexes, breaking below the february low into new lows, etc....they did not, they moved uptrend, corrected normally within the uptrend , didnt come close to the february lows, , etc..... and beyond that more specifically, individual mining stocks did their own movement within the bullish trend, some corrected harder,(IVN,JIN.TO)... others showed great strength (EGO,FRMSF,MISVF)

and they are following in tandem with the price of gold not the S+P.

So,maybe it will be time to have a grand re evaluation of the whole global market.... by this I mean.....different than the global collapse of 2008. Is it possible that we may see....even in the next big wave down, a Divergence, a separation of different sectors from the U.S.Indexes, a separation of foreign markets from US markets, even if in a moderate way , would become safer havens to consider.

Precious metal miners, gold and silver, select biotech,Brazil ,India,Peru?, etc,
any stocks that are diverging away from the S+P and US indexes.

example....Tata Motors
TTM

moved with the US indexes through 2009 and spring 2010 to peak at late april top......then.... as US market indexes plunged in may, so did Tata

then rallied back to june top as did the US market indexes

BUT NOW , TTM did NOT plunge to new lows like the S+P did in the last 3 weeks.

the chart looks just like the gold and silver miners.

holding up stronger than the S+P.,well above the May lows.

but then again, caution may be in order...the chart shows a clear head and shoulders pattern,at this moment. with 2 necklines involving the 50 and 200 MA.

bottom line, much more downside may be likely ,but there may be some place in the greater analysis for individual stocks, foreign markets, bullish sectors, to show divergence away from the US indexes and the impact of negative US markets.
Brazil will continue to emerge.as will China.India, and the rest of the world.

whats that word I'm looking for...not divergence...

DECOUPLING...thats it .

t said...

well now thats interesting...

so youre showing the monthly ,weekly, S+P chart from hell, a market ready to collapse


and yet here are some core blue chips that have had their day in hell, and are ready to recover....

what does that all mean?


and on top of this concept....other sectors are doing their own thing different from the S+P....like the gold and silver miners and precious metals..... these charts did not go sailing down with the indexes, breaking below the february low into new lows, etc....they did not, they moved uptrend, corrected normally within the uptrend , didnt come close to the february lows, , etc..... and beyond that more specifically, individual mining stocks did their own movement within the bullish trend, some corrected harder,(IVN,JIN.TO)... others showed great strength (EGO,FRMSF,MISVF)

and they are following in tandem with the price of gold not the S+P.

So,maybe it will be time to have a grand re evaluation of the whole global market.... by this I mean.....different than the global collapse of 2008. Is it possible that we may see....even in the next big wave down, a Divergence, a separation of different sectors from the U.S.Indexes, a separation of foreign markets from US markets, even if in a moderate way , would become safer havens to consider.

Precious metal miners, gold and silver, select biotech,Brazil ,India,Peru?, etc,
any stocks that are diverging away from the S+P and US indexes.

example....Tata Motors
TTM

moved with the US indexes through 2009 and spring 2010 to peak at late april top......then.... as US market indexes plunged in may, so did Tata

then rallied back to june top as did the US market indexes

BUT NOW , TTM did NOT plunge to new lows like the S+P did in the last 3 weeks.

the chart looks just like the gold and silver miners.

holding up stronger than the S+P.,well above the May lows.

but then again, caution may be in order...the chart shows a clear head and shoulders pattern,at this moment. with 2 necklines involving the 50 and 200 MA.

bottom line, much more downside may be likely ,but there may be some place in the greater analysis for individual stocks, foreign markets, bullish sectors, to show divergence away from the US indexes and the impact of negative US markets.
Brazil will continue to emerge.as will China.India, and the rest of the world.

whats that word I'm looking for...not divergence...

DECOUPLING...thats it .

Anonymous said...

well now thats interesting...

so youre showing the monthly ,weekly, S+P chart from hell, a market ready to collapse


and yet here are some core blue chips that have had their day in hell, and are ready to recover....

what does that all mean?


and on top of this concept....other sectors are doing their own thing different from the S+P....like the gold and silver miners and precious metals..... these charts did not go sailing down with the indexes, breaking below the february low into new lows, etc....they did not, they moved uptrend, corrected normally within the uptrend , didnt come close to the february lows, , etc..... and beyond that more specifically, individual mining stocks did their own movement within the bullish trend, some corrected harder,(IVN,JIN.TO)... others showed great strength (EGO,FRMSF,MISVF)

and they are following in tandem with the price of gold not the S+P.

So,maybe it will be time to have a grand re evaluation of the whole global market.... by this I mean.....different than the global collapse of 2008. Is it possible that we may see....even in the next big wave down, a Divergence, a separation of different sectors from the U.S.Indexes, a separation of foreign markets from US markets, even if in a moderate way , would become safer havens to consider.

Precious metal miners, gold and silver, select biotech,Brazil ,India,Peru?, etc,
any stocks that are diverging away from the S+P and US indexes.

example....Tata Motors
TTM

moved with the US indexes through 2009 and spring 2010 to peak at late april top......then.... as US market indexes plunged in may, so did Tata

then rallied back to june top as did the US market indexes

BUT NOW , TTM did NOT plunge to new lows like the S+P did in the last 3 weeks.

the chart looks just like the gold and silver miners.

holding up stronger than the S+P.,well above the May lows.

but then again, caution may be in order...the chart shows a clear head and shoulders pattern,at this moment. with 2 necklines involving the 50 and 200 MA.

bottom line, much more downside may be likely ,but there may be some place in the greater analysis for individual stocks, foreign markets, bullish sectors, to show divergence away from the US indexes and the impact of negative US markets.
Brazil will continue to emerge.as will China.India, and the rest of the world.

whats that word I'm looking for...not divergence...

DECOUPLING...thats it .

t said...

Trying to put the whole investing game in perspective....

I'm left with these thoughts.

1)There's No doubt in my mind now that the stock market as we know it is a Totally Rigged game.
Controlled and manipulated by the powers behind it,its not even a secret anymore.
2) Is it a good (re.sane,safe,beneficial,risky idea to even play this game with real life savings. and expect to make money?
3) Dont I need to have some reliable understanding, however rational,logical and/or intuitive it comes to me, some good understanding of How the Game Controllers are engineering this game,in order for me to have half a chance at making money ?
4) the answer to that is YES.
5) So far,I see Allan's mechanical system has some real value.It captures the center substance of large trends.
6) but at the same time ,I need to have the kind of understanding about the rigged game,geopolitical power struggles,evolution of the new world order,monetary crisis unfolding, etc.... the kind of perspective expressed by Smiddy,and Zero hedge,
7)
I'm getting there.
Hope I dont get there too late.
8)Some stocks ,may be immune to a market collapse.
9) those are the only ones I want to own now.
Theres nothing else safe enough ,honest enough to trust investing in.

So far, my trusted list includes

select gold and silver miners
select biotech
select oil explorers
gold and silver
cash
............
long term -

Brazil
China
India
Indonesia
Canada
Chile
Peru

....when the timing is right