Tuesday, July 27, 2010

ETF Trend Models

Here is a snapshot of the ETF Trend Models that are followed in the Trend Following Trading Model subscription service.  These numbers are as of the close July 26th and are updated for subscribers each day after the market closes. 



The idea here is to let a simple, objective, mechanical algorithm draw a trend line and then to be LONG when prices are above the trend line and SHORT when prices are below the trend line.  Here is an example, using SSO from the above table:

SSO Daily Trend Model

These Trend Models have beaten the pants off of my own analysis this past month, which says something about both my analysis and the Trend Models. Forecasting is easy when we are in sync, but much more difficult when we disagree.  Looking back over the past seven months, the Trend Models win hands down.  It looks from here that identifying a trend is a whole lot easier the forecasting one, a concept that from the looks of these results, can be taken to the bank.


A


Past performance does not guarantee future results.

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

Checking in from New Orleans.

Allan said: " Let a simple, objective, mechanical algorithm draw a trend line then go Long when prices are above the trend line and Short when prices are below the trend line".

Wow !! It really is that simple.

Don't get sidetracked by EW theories, lunar tables and the latest news stories from CNBC.

Follow the price and trend.
Follow the price and trend.
Follow the price and trend.

Thanks again for your fine work.

Mike said...

checking in from Niagara Falls...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=THbY7EL8k5w

-Mike

Anonymous said...

Allan,

Your FAS and FAZ are both short. It's got to be one or the other don't you think.

H.

Allan said...

FAS is now in LONG Pending mode.

MMarino said...

>>FAS is now in LONG Pending mode.

How? It ended below the daily reversal though did it not? And it's still considerably below its weekly.

Allan said...

At the time I posted the "Buy Pending" FAS was above its Daily trend line, but closed back below it. There are plenty of symbols and trends less finicky then FAS to chose from.

Anonymous said...

Allan...any thoughts on PTSC which you used to own? up nicely lately.

Thyanks

t said...

ISCO


I alerted folks last week about ISCO.
trying to establish a base at the 1.00 area. 90 cents bottom. great transformational biotech story,all positive updates from patrick cox, looked like it wanted to pop in recent days, made an initial pop the other day when I was alerting people, today blasted up and thru the resistance.

next target ....look at the chart.

My own ,and Patrick Cox's opinion of ISCO, ....its on the same level as NNVC. BTIM is also on the same level as NNVC.

ISCO

International Stem Cell Corporation


a public service announcement from a follower of Allan.