Wednesday, July 29, 2009

Sobering

“This gets back to just how smart a virus we’re dealing with. To boil it down to simplistic almost cartoonish terms, this thing has figured out how to survive the environmental conditions in which influenza viruses have never survived, namely heat and humidity.

“It is contrary to all of influenza history to see a virus surviving the way this one is. It knows enough that vaccines- ever since we started creating vaccines- are produced in eggs and it’s genetic code knows enough not to allow a vaccine to be produced in eggs quickly. This is not by chance that we’ve got this problem. This all gets back to a virus that has been around for hundreds of years and through hundreds of years of experience has morphed itself into something that is wary of being trapped or deceived.

“It has figured out a way to continue its propagation almost unimpeded and that would suggest that off the record, in a deep conversation in a dark bar, a government scientist researching pandemic flu would say that they’re scared to death because they see just how intelligent this virus is, they see what it’s done already and they know its potential. It’s ability to have done what it’s already done suggests a genetic intelligence- a genetic code internal to the virus- that will allow it to adapt in ways in which we have not seen influenza adapt before. “

That quote came from this article in Bio-Med Reports. It explains in relevant part how the following price action occurs:



That's a 330% gain in one day. In an effort to increase our odds of getting the next 300+% mover in this sector, I'm adding CVM to the Swine Flu Basket. It is discussed in the above-linked Bio-Med Reports article. Here is it's Weekly chart:

CVM


On the above chart, Blue Wave Trend says to wait until $0.52 is taken out before committing Long. But as you can see below, CVM is already at $0.50 in after hours today:


A

17 comments:

Anonymous said...

Since this bug is acting in ways that no other flu virus in history has acted (after only a 150 years of study or so, but don't worry, I'm sure we are all safe), yours truly, a non-scientist, can only use logic to conclude that a greater degree of newness leaves a whole lot of room for a greater degree of badness. Let's hope it doesn't mutate any further, because this is one weird flu bug.

[Question to you egg heads out there, if a flu bug shows a marked number of new mutations, does that indicate a propensity to mutate or is this a "what you see, is what you get?" Are new mutations more likely to continue to mutate? I would think that genetic imbalances would make some critters more susceptible to mutation than others, and this one's on a roll.]

By the way, I had this little bugger three weeks ago. I didn't die, and it wasn't as bad as the traditional flu, but it was no cake walk either (and I run a lot). It was not a good week.

Think about weeding your garden. What happens when you let it go? The summer heat doesn't seem to be weeding this thing. These flu bugs traditionally wane during the summer months. So they usually have to go through the long process of propagation all over again in the Fall. Unfortunately, this virus is not slowing down, it's gaining speed.

I don't know what's going to happen this Fall but I can predict one thing. If this virus has a leg up prior to the Fall flu season, it will gain momentum fast and appear to be everywhere at once. That means it will come to everyone's attention at once. Those types of events spread panic. The news media will spin an "End of the World" scenario because that's what pays the bills. Even though the reality is usually less dramatic than the hype, this promises to be a big trading catalyst.

Inasmuch as I am now immune (unless it mutates further) I plan to make a lot of money, but I am really gonna miss you guys... (only kidding)

Smiddy

PS:

From my readings, I understand that the Spanish Flu, the end of the world bug that killed 600k Americans, and 20-30 million worldwide, really didn't have all that much effect on the markets. But then again, the economy wasn't poised on the brink of oblivion then, just waiting for a reason to plummet, and they didn't have 24 hour financial news either. I would be careful in following the historical example. Markets are fickle in which news stories they react to, and things seem a little volatile these days.

The Sound Center said...

Anthropomorphism?

Anonymous said...

Allan:

Any update coming on the BWT count of the SPX?

Allan said...

Pre-market has CVM at 59c and is now projecting initial targets between 90c on the low side and $1.25 on the high side. That's a 50% to 100% reward, suggesting a stop in the mid 40c range to achieve reasonable risk:reward numbers. I've bought some pre-market, looking to buy more after the Open.

KM said...

I am in @.55. Look forward to hitting the donate button. Tried to buy premarket, but my armature skills failed me.

Anonymous said...

Why is this falling? Did any negative news come about?

surfer said...

Alan,

Have you heard of Ventana Biotech - VNTA? It is the diet industry with its potentially patented use of the human hormone that controls hunger.
Any thoughts on this one?

Thanks

Anonymous said...

Allan
OPK doing well so far
any target?
serge

Dorothy said...

Dear Smiddy,

The simple answer is the virus is genetically unstable, and could mutate more and more... nobody knows.

dorothy r.

Burnhard said...

to me...the biomed report sounds like a story and a bit shameful to have been written in that style. really unprofessional. its a bit hyped. yeah h1n1 h5n1 is dangerous. so? i've dipped my toe in NNVC, which seems like an amazing solution on the long road. but their pr STINKS. eugene is sooooo slow in replying on basic requests. as for all these other flu stocks, its just a fun gamble, fun trading, because of the emotions involved, news. just my 2ct

Anonymous said...

Looks like you suggested INO a day late and lots of $ short...down what 40-50% in 2 hours? Guess charts don't always work

Allan said...

Re: INO

I let this comment go through to make a point. I never "suggested INO". All I did was use it's 300% move as an example of what can happen to these small cap biotechs when good news hits.

Either you didn't read my post very carefully, or, well, let's just say you didn't ready my post very carefully, because the alternative explanation is pretty damn bad.

Anonymous said...

INO...my Bad ,apologies

Anonymous said...

Now we need NNVC to do the 300% up

KM said...

srsr looks tempting. I think Allan said his cost was around .08c and holding. Any thoughts?

Anonymous said...

KM: you better wait for 0.0509

KM said...

even better. thanks.