Let's briefly review what this company is all about. NanoViricides, Inc. is a development stage company with a unique nanomedicine technology. Preliminary testing of their anti-viral applications have demonstrated very high efficacies in vivo and in vitro.
(1) Their anti-HIV nanoviricide showed efficiacy superior to HAART cocktail in animal studies. "HAART" means highly active antiretroviral therapy. "HAART" is essentially just antiretroviral therapy. It's three drugs combined to make highly effective therapy;
(2) Their EKC-Cide is a topical solution for viral eye diseases and is currently subject to an MTA (Materials Transfer Agreement) with a major (unnamed) pharmaceutical company. It is the first ever drug to have shown clear clinical response in animal studies against adenoviral epidemic kerato-conjunctivitis;
(3) Their FLU-Cide for common influenzas has shown excellent efficacy in animal studies;
(4) Their FLU-Cide-HP for Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenzas (HPAI, aka "Bird Flu") has shown excellent efficacy against H5N1 clade I (resistant to Tamiflu) and H5N1 clade 2.
The total dollar markets for these and other commercial disease targets represent large markets of approximately $40B total by 2013.
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As of today's stock close of $0.70, the market capitalization of NanoViricides is about $86M. The markets their products are addressing over the next 4 years, some of which represent markets with no current non-toxic drugs and others in which there are no effective treatments whatsoever, amount to $40B. The HIV market alone is $21B. The smallest market for any single one of their drugs is $1B.
How much longer will the market cap of NNVC remain under $1B?
At $1B market cap, share price will be about $10.00, or 14X current share price. But that's just for starters. If their HIV anti-viral hits, a $21B market, how much is the company worth? Does $10B seem reasonable? It does to me. At a $10B market cap, share price is about $100.
At $100 per share, every 10,000 shares of NNVC (costing $7,000 at today's closing price) becomes worth $1,000,000.
Acknowledging that this is all idle speculation and that there is risk that none of the above ever comes to fruition, it seems to me that as likely as it is that none of this happens, it is now just as likely that part, of not all of this does happen. Yes, that means that as I follow this company, meet and talk with it's CEO, read the SEC filings and everything else I can find on NNVC, that I see a 50% chance that the goal of $100 a share in the next five years will become a reality.
That is one hell of a risk:reward from my standpoint.
Be aware that I own and control a bunch of this stock, in personal, family, friends' and managed accounts and that I will benefit greatly if this stock appreciates. Also be aware that much of the stock I own or control has been purchased at prices lower then today's market price, some as low as 10 cents per share.
BUT MOSTLY BE AWARE THAT THERE IS RISK IN OWNING STOCKS AND IN PARTICULAR, THIS STOCK. DEVELOPMENTAL COMPANIES, OF WHICH NANOVIRICIDES IS ONE, ARE MORE LIKELY TO FAIL THEN TO SUCCEED.
That said, let me point out that in my investment career, which started when I was 13 years old, there have been but a handful of investment opportunities come my way that offered the potential to change my life. I believe NanoViricides is one of those opportunities, maybe the last one for me. I am adamant in my resolve that unlike some of the others, I will not look back at this one with the regrets of "What if" or "If only."
This time, I am in....................ALL IN.