Tuesday, July 14, 2009

NNVC - Update

The table below summarizes the most salient and fundamental potential for NanoViricides and it's shareholders:


Let's briefly review what this company is all about. NanoViricides, Inc. is a development stage company with a unique nanomedicine technology. Preliminary testing of their anti-viral applications have demonstrated very high efficacies in vivo and in vitro.

(1) Their anti-HIV nanoviricide showed efficiacy superior to HAART cocktail in animal studies. "HAART" means highly active antiretroviral therapy. "HAART" is essentially just antiretroviral therapy. It's three drugs combined to make highly effective therapy;



(2) Their EKC-Cide is a topical solution for viral eye diseases and is currently subject to an MTA (Materials Transfer Agreement) with a major (unnamed) pharmaceutical company. It is the first ever drug to have shown clear clinical response in animal studies against adenoviral epidemic kerato-conjunctivitis;

(3) Their FLU-Cide for common influenzas has shown excellent efficacy in animal studies;

(4) Their FLU-Cide-HP for Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenzas (HPAI, aka "Bird Flu") has shown excellent efficacy against H5N1 clade I (resistant to Tamiflu) and H5N1 clade 2.

The total dollar markets for these and other commercial disease targets represent large markets of approximately $40B total by 2013.

Download Company Fact Sheet


As of today's stock close of $0.70, the market capitalization of NanoViricides is about $86M. The markets their products are addressing over the next 4 years, some of which represent markets with no current non-toxic drugs and others in which there are no effective treatments whatsoever, amount to $40B. The HIV market alone is $21B. The smallest market for any single one of their drugs is $1B.

How much longer will the market cap of NNVC remain under $1B?

At $1B market cap, share price will be about $10.00, or 14X current share price. But that's just for starters. If their HIV anti-viral hits, a $21B market, how much is the company worth? Does $10B seem reasonable? It does to me. At a $10B market cap, share price is about $100.

At $100 per share, every 10,000 shares of NNVC (costing $7,000 at today's closing price) becomes worth $1,000,000.

Acknowledging that this is all idle speculation and that there is risk that none of the above ever comes to fruition, it seems to me that as likely as it is that none of this happens, it is now just as likely that part, of not all of this does happen. Yes, that means that as I follow this company, meet and talk with it's CEO, read the SEC filings and everything else I can find on NNVC, that I see a 50% chance that the goal of $100 a share in the next five years will become a reality.

That is one hell of a risk:reward from my standpoint.


Be aware that I own and control a bunch of this stock, in personal, family, friends' and managed accounts and that I will benefit greatly if this stock appreciates. Also be aware that much of the stock I own or control has been purchased at prices lower then today's market price, some as low as 10 cents per share.

BUT MOSTLY BE AWARE THAT THERE IS RISK IN OWNING STOCKS AND IN PARTICULAR, THIS STOCK. DEVELOPMENTAL COMPANIES, OF WHICH NANOVIRICIDES IS ONE, ARE MORE LIKELY TO FAIL THEN TO SUCCEED.

That said, let me point out that in my investment career, which started when I was 13 years old, there have been but a handful of investment opportunities come my way that offered the potential to change my life. I believe NanoViricides is one of those opportunities, maybe the last one for me. I am adamant in my resolve that unlike some of the others, I will not look back at this one with the regrets of "What if" or "If only."

This time, I am in....................ALL IN.


A

39 comments:

Anonymous said...

Thanks Allan, Exciting stuff, one of your most interesting Blogs ever. Reading this make me want to buy more NNVC. Joe/NYC

Lasertrader said...

Thank you Allan. This review/update was very informative and well written. I have been reading the IHub NNVC board for some time now and have a piece of ownership with you.

Along with the profitability aspect of this stock, the main upside is the number of people that they will help if the drugs are effective and get to market.

Good luck to us.

Bruce

Anonymous said...

All in...whatever. Heard that bs before.

Anonymous said...

What do you think about Voyant (VOYT.OB)?


-Joe Eats

Anonymous said...

MarvinMBA says that NNVC life saving antivirals will be an absolute nessesity if we are going to survive as a human race. There are no other options at this junction...MarvinMBA

Anonymous said...

Good time to dump everything in this sucker before it crashess back to 30cents....it's a penney stock, no more, no less. Nice hype there Alla, but it aint going anywhere.

Anonymous said...

Yeah, better to trade the "blue chips" right? Wrong.

High risk, high return sounds better to me than the low returns and high risks you get with the blue chips.

There's room in everyone's portfolio for some speculative stocks, so let's not sneer. If safety doesn't exist, replacing some of the stocks in the equity portion of your portfolio doesn't seem as risky as it once was.

Things have changed if you haven't noticed.

Anonymous said...

In the spirit of an open discussion...can someone answer this??????

If a HIV patient gets a 'functional' cure from a viricides, is he/she susceptible to future bouts of future? The thing that intrigues me is that the viricides kills the virus but does not have any impact on the patients immune system. And thus an HIV patient, even though treated effectively can once again get infected with HIV as his/her immune system is below par/very weak.

Also, keep in mind the viricides does not use any API and hence it can be produced at affordable prices....effectively reducing the revenue stream even though it may save lives. Insurance companies are bound to step in and regulate what the pharma can price. So the net effect of this will be a lower PPS than expected.

Anonymous said...

Sure, go ahead. Buy 10,000 shares of NNVC and piss away $7,000. Makes perfect sense to me.

Anonymous said...

NNVC is preclinical and has no timetable set for any clinical trials. It is eventually going to zero. Doesn't mean there won't be some pops up along the way (especially if the flu threat returns this fall), but this is not a long-term hold.

Anonymous said...

Dow 10,000 anyone?

Anonymous said...

With planned sales by insiders its unlikely that NNVC will get any real play without a deal and none seem to be on the horizon...lots of promises and just company inside selling...

Anonymous said...

I think the insiders are going to continue to dump because I believe there is something that we do not know...otherwise they would have made at least one deal already. Lots of positive stories but no read deal with a pharm.

Anonymous said...

Allan: If you have the inside scoop such as you claim why has a deal not yet been made and when will it happen. Certainly with all of NNVC products claims you would think one pharm would make some type of offer for at least one antiviral. The whole NNVC seems to lack peer review and Pharm interest in spite of all the claims.

Anonymous said...

I hope your analysis are not lead investors that have yet to see a major pharm interested in the product lines. Of course there is high risk but the company has to make at least one deal sometime instead of promises and promises and stop selling INsider stock into this market.

Allan said...

Planned stock sales for entire year of 2009 are just 318K shares, about 3K shares a day, hardly significant by any measure. "Dumping?" Give me a break.

(link to SEC filings: http://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?CIK=0001379006&action=getcompany)

These planned sales are for the stated purpose of building their own manufacturing facility, about as huge a vote of confidence in company's prospects as is imaginable.

With already an existing Material Transfer Agreement with a major pharma and multiple testing agreements with government, educational and other institutions, there are plenty of "on the horizon" possibilities for the company, which can pick and choose among rival deals. My guess is once the first deal gets inked, the flood gates will open for other deals.

How easy it is for unscrupulous bashers to twist the truth and fabricate lies. Even sadder is the thought that someone might be swayed by an "Anonymous" comment on the Internet. I suspect my readers know better, that's why they are here.

A

Anonymous said...

That pretty much says it all!
Thanks Big Al!

Mike said...

I wouldn't be surprised if the Plunge Protection Team is artifically bolstering the market so that Obama & Pelosi can get their healthcare through.

-Mike

Anonymous said...

There seems to be virtually zero institutional support for this stock...do they know something that would prevent them from taking a position...certainly this is an opportunity of a lifetime for everyone...where are the institutional stock buyers????

Anonymous said...

The company says they are buying new equipment...has any investor actually visited the company to look at the new equipment and see a laboratory in operation??? Where is a picture of the lab on the company web site??? Does a lab exist at all???? Alan: Have you visited company headquarters and see a laboratory????

Anonymous said...

High risk, high reward. Some whiners, most not. Some thinkers, some not. Play or don't. What to do, what to do? Hmmmm

other Mike

Anonymous said...

I am stuck in FAZ, QID and TWM, I am so hosed ...

Anonymous said...

To anonymous stuck in Faz,.....that's what you get for paying close attention to Big Al's bs about the 5th EW wave or whatever predicting the market is gonna crash. What crash? All I see is GREEEEEEEN!!

Allan said...

Looks like neither of you were paying very close attention:

http://allallan.blogspot.com/2009/07/clarity.html

John said...

More likely anonymous is having a conversation with mysel...I'm mean himself. lol..

That's more likely.

John

Anonymous said...

What I learned during the last two years coincides exactly with what Allan is saying. Even though there was every economic reason for an imminent decline, I had abandoned the effort to predict it because I already learned that fundamental reasons are irrelevant to what the market is doing now.

The fundamental part of my brain, the loser part that constructs arguments that "have to happen" is at odds with the technical part that knows that even if the fundamentals are correct, they can't tell you when, so they can only lead you astray.

The bad news is already built into this market so there will be no panic just yet. All we need for the next crash is some great returns and a phoney baloney story the investing public can believe in. The reason the next downleg hasn't happened yet is there are not enough bulls on one rail to capsize the ship. Be patient and trade price action. When everyone rushes to one rail, the ship will go belly up.

Smiddywesson

Anonymous said...

I didn't miss your cop out point. Yeah yeah, you only trade tiny trading windows. However, you pump the long term trend and when you're wrong, you don't care to admit it, let alone talk about it. What's the next fabrication? Oh I know! Obama's people called you and incentivised you to pump the longside or stay quiet. I hope its as I just stated and not that you are just another wanna be stock picking guru.

Anonymous said...

To comment #4,

"joe eats" at 5 star restaurants in NYC almost every night, not a great life , but not a bad one either. Good luck and good night.
joe/ NYC

Anonymous said...

Allan, Markets pumped way up, just as they were last summer. Don't pay attention, this fall you will be our hero again, just as you were last fall, but only to those who know you and trust you. Warmest regards from joe in NYC.

Anonymous said...

someone get that man a stainless steel toothpick!

Anonymous said...

I appreciate when Allan gives his opinion about the future, but I didn't come here for a ouija board blog so I don't care if ANY of them are correct.

Anyway, what he said was correct. The market will fall, but you can't let that influence your trading until it happens. It's an opportunity to predict where the market is headed (down), but you can bust, just like Livermore if you persuade yourself that you know when.

NYC Joe is loyal (and obviously smart), but he missed the point: "Don't pay attention, this fall you will be our hero again..."

LOL, you are already a hero! I don't need help with a easy tip, I need the help I get here every day. You could predict Dow 36,000 by the Fall and I wouldn't care one little bit, because I'm not here for predictions. I'm here to learn how to trade.

Give a man a trade, and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to trade...

Thanks Allan

Smiddywesson

PS: Keep the predictions coming. I'm a primate and can't help myself. I love arguing about the future.

Anonymous said...

a silver toothpick for contestant #2. someone gonna go for gold?

Mike said...

little comic relief...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KX5jNnDMfxA

-Mike

Anonymous said...

Allan, Good blog, I love hanging out here, many, many others seem to enjoy it too! Warm regards from NYC/joe

PS A golden toothpick is a very thoughtful but unoriginal idea, Google Chinese history at 1000 BC.

Anonymous said...

Hi Allan,

Interesting company. Actually not too far from where I live, which makes me more interested. However when researching on Yahoo, the lowest the stock has ever gone to is 29 cents in Nov '2007. However you said you got into this stock at times when it was 10 cents? Could you please clarify? Maybe yahoo data is wrong!!

Allan said...

Here's a link to my original post on NNVC:

http://allallan.blogspot.com/2005/08/nnvc.html

August, 2005.

Anonymous said...

Forgive me if I am just plain stupid, but regarding Allan's statements on 2009 planned sales, he states that there is only 318k shares, about 3k shares a day.

240 trading days (approx.) x 3k shares a day = 720k shares. More than double what Allan says. Can someone help me with this or is this an example of Allan's "computations" that should concern us all?

Allan said...

Only about 3,000 a day up until I posted the blog, about 1/2 a year, or about 120 trading days:

3,000 * 120 days = 360,000 ytd

NNVC is trading at 74c today.

Anonymous said...

Allan,
your comment states, and I quote,
"Planned stock sales for ENTIRE year of 2009 are just 318K shares, about 3K shares a day, hardly significant by any measure. "Dumping?" Give me a break."

Now you say they have sold 360k in the first 1/2 of the year?

Something does not add up. Either they are done with selling now or they are starting to "dump". I sure hope your math is better on your projections for this company's outlook than it is for something simple like this.