Monday, May 01, 2006

Monday Morning, 3:00AM

Another sleepless night. Joe and I stayed up late, mostly him since he is on the East Coast, to finish the Sally Insider Buying Alerts distribution. Here's the link to the Sally Insider information page that explains the emails we hope will be going out later today. Thanks Joe, for giving up your weekend to put it all together.

Up again at 3:00am here in Eastern Washington, waiting for another trading day, Imus on the TV across the room and "All The Roadrunning" playing in my head. A stunning, poignant, poetic collection of songs and harmonies by Mark Knopfler and Emmy Lou Harris. "If This is Good-bye," haunts. Haven't been touched my music since I was another person. If this is what it took, it was worth it. Buy it.

Last Thursday I was hiking across the mountain top across the way from my house. Dirt trails up and down steep to flat terrain wrapping through a quiet, beautiful forest. Down a steep decline, trying to get back on the path, I tripped on a loose rock and fell head first down about five feet and face-first across the flat stone and dirt path. Blood dripped from the abrasions on my face and head, my left arm which I tried to throw out to soften my fall was hyper-extended and my off and on chronically bad back is chronically bad again.

No doctors this time, just 1 generic Vicodin every six hours and cleaning the wounds three times a day.

Oh yea, my mouth. Took the brunt of the fall and still is swelled and painful, unable to handle extreme hot or cold or chewing of any consequence.

And my daughters, still so far away and missed with every thought of mine.

So why can't the Red Wings beat the Oilers? Is all this not enough suffering for one fan? And is that really why I am sleepless in Spokane, once again?

A

11 comments:

Anonymous said...

TGC is a buy. Read their 10K (the very bottom portion for NPV cash flows). On friday insiders converted options to shares. Did not cash in! has a potentila to be at $10-$16.

TGC is turnaround story. They just became profitable. Management believes high opil prices are here to stay, above $65.

Anonymous said...

Allan, I did not even read about your fall. But you are a brave soul and know how to weather the pain, physical or mental. I hope and wish that you get back on your feet soon, back to your daily passion of making money.

Greg Reiman said...

Hi A:

Traders that work these insider signals are fast. The SEC timestamp on SMTL was 11:42:16 and at 11:43 the price spiked 20 cents, from $9.50 to $9.70.

This looks like a good tradable to me, down big Fri on disappointing quarterly results. I think it should fill the gap short term for a nice swing trade.

I put my buy order in at $9.51. Let the day traders wrestle each other over the instant pop.

Your thoughts if interested?

Greg

Allan said...

Greg, I was up getting a refill on my coffee, heard the Alert, ran to the computer and paid $9.67. My trading partner was sitting right there paid $9.50. That's a huge difference when your daytrading, but not som much for longer term investing. But even at my fill, I'm up 5% already, and coffee is still warm.

A

GReg Reiman said...

Hi A:

I did not get filled at $9.51, I thought I would wait and see if it settled down after the initial spike. It hasn't! I am being cautious while I get the feel of this signal. Rather miss a trade then lose money. Although, I was not thinking day trade, but fill the gap over several days type trade. So I thought I had time to let the daytraders do their thing first.

By the way, my NHL favorite, the Nashville Predators choked last night and their season is over. Their farm team in the AHL, the Milwaukee Admirals moves on to the next round of West Division finals for the Calder Cup. I hope to take the kids to see one of the games this week.

GTR

Ronny said...

Hi Greg,that is the way I play these I buys.I put in a limit order below the initial pop.My holding period is a lot longer than Allan's.
Ron
PS,thanks Allan for your generosity!

Greg Reiman said...

Hi Ronny:

Have you had a good experience using your strategy? Do you get filled often at your limit price? How often do the trades run away from you vs. come back to your limit price?

I do not have a fast enough trigger finger to try to trade the initial pop, although I probably could have gotten in at $9.71-9.75 range and been out by now with a small day trade profit. But I actually work a full time job, so I can't spend too much time watching the tape.

Thanks

GTR

Ronny said...

Greg,I would estimate I get filled about half the time.But since I don't need to own all the stocks,I don't care.
I am constantly trying to imporve my trading.I have made about 19% since starting this strategy last Sept.I am letting my profits run the last month and have been doing much better.
You can trade this way and still hold down another job.I have found the stocks priced under $10 tend to move quicker.
Hope this helps,Ron

Greg Reiman said...

Hi Ron:

Thanks for your response.

I did raise my bid price on SMTL to 9.73 and got filled later in the day.

SMTL fits the pattern of trades I like to do, where price takes a big hit due to quarterly reports or some other news, then rebounds back to the previous trend lines. the fact that an insider bought big just reaffirms my original feeling about the price over correcting on percieved disappointing earnings report.

I have benefited tremendously from the trading ideas Allan and his readers offer here. Coincidentaly, I also started trading more actively in September, I am up 56%, was up 73% but April was a tough month and I took some riskier trades when I should have stayed on the sidelines.

Thanks again.

Greg

Ronny said...

Greg,you are doing better than I am.I was dong great,but I started trading too much and not letting my profits run.
How long do you like to hold your positions?
Thanks,Ron

Greg Reiman said...

Allan:

You should have held your SMTL, up 4% today. My target sell is minimun of $10.61, and hope for $11 or $12 before selling.

Ron:

I have been shortening up my hold time, but it varies. I put in a stop loss order and try to let them run, sometime I put in a trailing stop, but I get stopped out too often with room to climb if I set it too tight, and give up too much profit if I set it too loose and wait past the top. It is hard to time the exits just perfict. My problem lately is getting out too soon, but i am still amking money so I shouldn't complain.

Greg