Thursday, August 26, 2010

Shorter term trends - Gold & Silver stocks

Back in early June I posted an analysis of Gold and select Gold & Silver stocks.  Below is my third recap of my Trend Following Trading System, this time Gold & Silver stocks.  There are three differences in these stocks from the previous two "Shorter term trends" installments.

First, for these stocks I use a lower volatility setting for the trend algorithm.  Gold and silver stocks trend much better with lower volatility thresholds.

Second, a few of the "Buy" signals in the table were generated before I sent out the Gold & Silver Basket to subscribers.  But I think its a better view of performance of the algorithm to see the signals from inception.  The basket of gold and silver stocks was sent out on June 19th, so all performance is real time since Monday, June 22nd.

Third,  I'm including the Weekly Signals because they have been so good that trading them should be a material consideration for anyone with a longer term time horizon.

Finally, as with the previous two installments, past performance is not a guarantee of future results and that the reversal thresholds do change so the reversal levels shown above are only applicable at the time of this post but are updated to my private email list after each market close.

Selected Charts

ANV_Daily Trend Model

ANV_Weekly Trend Model

AXU_Daily Trend Model


Anonymous said...

Timely topic.
I agree with the vision and outlook.

I suppose investors ,with due diligence and a dart board can select from alot of miner stocks with strong fundamentals as well as a good looking chart.

But I wonder how,and why you selected these stocks in particular and why only limit yourself to these.

There are some considered great and essential to own,like SLW, but its too expensive now ,same with EGO.

Smart strategy has to wait for these to correct.

Including one of you listed ...GSS,I like GSS at the 4.00 area 3.80 the lows from feb and june july... but not to buy now at the top. a pullback to hold in the 4.00-4.15 area I would consider buying.

There are others, in an ok buy zone now, and with a special fundamental some China miners(supported by the government) that might be worth considering.....

JINFF(needs a correction to 4),

ICMTF (ok buy zone now but watch the 1.00- 1.10 area),

SVM at 6-6.50 area( too late now just broke out thru 7.00) (needs correction)

EGO is china miner,(needs big correction to 17-16 area)

MISVF ,(china silver)correcting now watch 3.00area

Africa miners have become en vogue now

Alaska miners as well.

and Quebec is a hot spot. look at AZK. and KGILF.(needs big correction)

Its hard to know when to get in ,if youre not in yet. the time was last february and the june july bottoms.... hard to get in now.

Ive been following this sector closely for the last year and I look to a few good newsletters that provide extensive due diligence.

Unless an investor spends 8 hours a day researching and knows how to read all the mining data like a pro, one has to rely on the expert newsletters to do that for you.

and in that regard

along with valueing your's my list
if it adds to the opportunitys

these are still in a reasonable 1st purchase buy level.

THM (junior) in buy zone now at 5.85

ICMTF (junior) near buy zone support 1.00-1.20

MISVF (junior) correcting now, watch for 3.00

First BUy allocation ,remember ,does NOT mean 'all in-100%'

it means....nibble for a 1/3 purchase.

Anonymous said...

Ridiculous. People buy gold and silver in times of economic unrest. A chart can't predict things like 9/11 and the housing crisis.

Anonymous said...

My only concern is the inconsistency with the EWI theory. I know you are using that as your premise for the market going down so how is it you are going against the "all one market" and EW theory by going long Gold and Silver?

Thanks-always interesting,

Anonymous said...

This should be a Great week for gold and silver. Market will turn bullish for the remainder of 2010. jmo Go long people