Thursday, August 05, 2010

NNVC - time to bang the table?

Sun turnin' 'round with graceful motion
We're setting off with soft explosion
Bound for a star with fiery oceans
It's so very lonely, you're ten thousand light years from home.

Time to bang the table again on NNVC?
 
I found this succinct analysis of NNVC's prospects over on the iHub NNVC forum and wanted to make sure everyone understood where this company is on its path to becoming a major anti-viral pharmaceutical company:
Let's look at possible valuations for NNVC:
Currently completing animal studies and known to be entering pre-IND tox package:
Hiv-Cide for treatment of AIDS-- potential market $3 to $5 billion
Dengue-Cide treatment for Dengue and in particular DHF-- potential market over $1 billion
HSV-1 and HSV-2 treatment for genital Herpes-- potential market well over $1 billion
Once one indication is approved, the other 2 indications will be less than a year from market or revenue.
So, $1 billion divided by 200 million shares o/s worse case scenario leaves $5 earnings for each indication.
That sure looks like a share price over $2 to me.
If you disagree with the above you really, really don't know anything about NNVC, it's market potential, its technology, or the likelihood of approval.
The poster, "Dr. Feelgood," is a long-time shareholder and supporter of the company.  He deals in facts and logical deductions therefrom.  Assigning a modest PE of 20 to the above numbers suggests a share price of $300.  If their stuff works, the company may be worth $300 a share, just based on three out of 6-8 indications from their drug platform.

Does their stuff work?  It's early, but reputable, respected viral researchers are chiming in with a resounding, "Yes!" from their laboratories.

Yet the stock is mired in a painful 50% decline from it's May 3, 2010 high of $2.64.  I am awaiting a Trend Model BUY Signal before banging the table for NNVC shares, much the way I did last October when it dipped under $0.50.   An interim BUY on the 240_minute Trend Model comes in today at $1.38, a Daily BUY at $1.45.

What does the company have to say?

In response to a question to Dr. Seymour about the daily fluctuations in stock price:
"We know from its historical performance that major events have had a significant impact on the price.  If I'm asked, I suggest that people not obsessively watch the price but check it only every now and then. In fact, I subscribe to a service that gives me real-time quotes with the number of shares bought and sold. The sheer manipulation of the stock by the market makers drove me crazy so I followed my own advice and stopped watching. People should be more interested in the fact that we've never had a failure...some minor glitches perhaps, all corrected, but that's just Mother Nature having fun with those who attempt to divine her closely guarded secrets. Progress of the Company is all that one should focus on."
---EUGENE SEYMOUR, MD, MPH
Chief Executive Officer
NANOVIRICIDES, INC


A

18 comments:

Michael said...

Thanks for the information Allan, however, looking briefly at the NNVC chart, with elliott wave terms, I believe we will see the 0.40 value again or less, before we see new highs.
I believe we are in a wxy correction, with w beggining in April 2006 an ending in Jan 2009, and x ending in April 2010. We are now at the y wave, which will have aprox. the same length (pricewise as w).
Don't want to influence anyone though. I could be wrong.

Anonymous said...

As counterpoint to the post above by Anonymous:

What the author forgets to mention is the fact that the Viricide platform is completely and utterly a brand new paradigm in the treatment of virus-borne illnesses. It is a whole new way of treating diseases that currently have no cures. This paradigm shift, like any new innovation, needs time and process to be vetted, tested and accepted.
Early investors "get it", other like the author above clearly do not. NNVC is methodically and carefully ushering this platform to the forefront. Esteemed researchers like Dr. Eva Harris have found (thus far) that the denguecide is effective and non-toxic. Her research is moving along very quickly (by research standards) due to the fact that there is a very urgent need for a cure for breakbone fever the world over, including S. Florida.
The good news is, the research and testing done so far has been "by the book" and results will be able to replicated by scientists the world over.

This process takes time. Human nature is such that we don't like change, we don't like having to embrace a better way of doing things especially when we've been "doing fine" for decades with the treatments currently employed. Many of those same people have made a very fine living using and promoting that mediocrity.

There is hope, however, because, eventually the truth wins. It always has and always will. And the scientific method of
validating the NNVC platform is the surest, most irrefutable way to discover this truth. So far, so good.

The good news is this: Thanks to writers like Anon here, the stock is on sale. This is a rare opportunity to pick up shares at a ridiculous discount.

Review the literature, speak to your doctor friends and see if you can't see the "truth" of this science. You'll find management to be responsive and forthcoming. If you "get it", then the risk/reward at these levels should be self evident.

By no means, am I intending to "pump" this stock, just offering a counterbalance to the chronic resistance to change demonstrated above.

Chad Miller

Allan said...

More reason to believe:

Big Pharma Won't Wait in Rush for Biotech's Drugs

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704271804575404902333961806.html

zoomraker said...

Could someone let me know what exchange this is traded on please

Anonymous said...

Allan:

are you aware of this
http://www.hotstocked.com/article/2553/nanoviricides-inc-otc-nnvc-not-too-effective.html

Anonymous said...

An Off-Topic thought

just because it might be timely for friday's market.

You see the indexes idling at the current top,at resistance,at fib levels,waiting to make a move,waiting for friday's 'jobs report'
.... as the next kicker for market direction

Alright,well, heres what has been reported ad nauseum on TV news all day today,actually since yesterday as well.....and it finally hit me that THIS might be the 'kicker news' that the 'market' will use as the phony rationale for pushing the market UP tomorrow...... the news is all this story about the Gulf of Mexico BP gusher Finally being plugged ok,and ,get this !! all the millions of barrels of oil polluting the Gulf....it's miraculously 75 % Gone!! like a bad dream. Wow. Thats just unbelievable.

And All day yesterday and today theyve been reciting this story like a mantra over and over in the news.

Everything is ok now theyre telling us.

I could be totally wrong about this hunch.... but it just hit me ,maybe this is the next string being pulled ....to engineer friday's reaction in the markets.

no more gulf disaster,all is well, its party time again.

I dunno.

Anonymous said...

for anon above re: hotstocked.com article-

link for ihub where Dr Seymour addresses these points.

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=52421981

Anonymous said...

What are the levels of support for this stock? Where do the charts say NNVC is headed? This action does not seem to be about fundamentals. Thanks.

pimaCanyon said...

the way I read support levels, there should be good support at .80 to .90.

Note that NNVC has traded as low at 1.13 today, now at 1.17

Anonymous said...

FOX news just ran a report on the spread of Dengue fever in South Florida. This may become an epidemic and help NNVC SP

Anonymous said...

down to 1.10

Anonymous said...

GenVec Could Get $13M Over 4 Yrs Under Pact With NOVARTIS !!!!


Friday 08/06/2010 7:25 AM ET - T
GenVec Announces New Agreement with Global Pharmaceutical Company

GenVec, Inc. (Nasdaq: GNVC) today announced a new agreement for the supply of services relating to development materials with Novartis, related to the companies' collaboration in hearing loss and balance disorders.

Under this new agreement, GenVec could receive approximately $13 million over four years to manufacture clinical trial material for up to two lead candidates.

Anonymous said...

That's a mighty big red candle posted so far today......
Under a buck would be nice...

Anonymous said...

If the boys arent reaching for a bottom in this stock today, it could get ugly. Not sure I want to be around to participate as they slowly take the air out of nnvc.

As I mentioned a few months ago, watch the 13 ema xover of the 34 ema. Basically all you need to know or watch. All these other technical trading methods just get in the way.

Anonymous said...

hmmm....the 13 EMA and the 34 EMA.... ok, I'll start looking at that to see if it shows anything. always open to different ideas.

sometimes I look at the Ichimoto Cloud thing.... it actually looks good to my eyes.

t

Anonymous said...

Anon,about the 13 and 34 EMA,can you explain a bit about your rationale for it?

I looked at a few charts ,I see how it looks crossing at key points, looks interesting.
Did you just decide upon these parameters from alot of observation?

Sometimes, I theorize about using a 14 and 28 setting ,especially in the indicators like williams and CCI, because these time frames correspond with the cycle of the new and full moon. (just to see if theres any correspondence)

Other times I use a rainbow of 200/100/50/28/14/5

but I also like to see the Fibonacci levels.


lots of things can craft a decent vision.

sometimes simple is better.

sometimes complex and microscopic is better.

it all depends on the moment thats developing.

including news triggers and the manipulations of the wizard.

Anonymous said...

GENVEC.....my worst smelling dead duck....

If GNVC EVER,EVER,EVER makes it back to the 2 dollar level, or heck, even 1.50

I will gratefully sell my dead duck shares for what I can salvage.

No big pharma agreement to help keep the dead duck on life support will persuade me to stay with the dead duck.

Sometimes a dead duck just stays a dead duck and my gut tells me this one is dead.

I bought it around 2.50 the day before it died....LOL so pathetic I can only laugh.

mmm...I think Novartis is helping them establish a lemonade stand ,they'll be selling rubber bands to novartis, something like that... no, maybe canned beets,something about pickled watermellon,that might be it.... and recycled cardboard boxes....to give them something to do.

doesnt it sound like just a salvage operation... ?
it does to me.

Anonymous said...

Bang the table to sell this stock.

It's crashing through every support level anyone ever comes up with.