Monday, August 02, 2010

VXX Daily Trend Model

The VXX_Daily Trend Model has steered true all summer long.  It will take almost a 10% pop to reverse this model LONG, which would be a Sell Signal for the market:


4/27: BUY   @ 20.50
6/15: SELL @ 26.70
6/24: BUY  @ 28.24
7/7:  SELL @ 26.90
Currrent:   @ 21.73

Note that half the trades were wrong, but that the winners gained substantially  more then the losers, with all four trades gaining a cumulative 8.69 points, or about 42% for the period shown.  This has been a characteristic of this model going back 18 months making it a candidate to filter all market timing signals from the indexes directly, avoiding trading against the direction suggested for the market (inverse to indexes). 

A

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Alan,

Your position seems somewhat ambivalent given what you exhibited in your Weekly charts just on Saturday.Or is it merely short vs long term horizons?

Should one take a position on your Daily VXX chart if you are more short-term oriented (next 3-10 days),and a longer term view being 2-5 weeks.

Should one be using both time frames as investment opportunities if we believe the upside will last perhaps a few more weeks at best.

What would you suggest?

H.

Allan said...

The fact is that the downside confirmation on the shorter-term models have no provided an entry and until they do, its either join the Longs or wait for the next Sell. I've given my subscribers some interesting thresholds on the DJIA for entering SHORT, in addition to the other models' thresholds. Ergo, some ambivalence, some caution, but also some eager anticipation.

A

t said...

From a Follower's watch list.... today,UPWRF popped 25 %.
This is the oil exploration company off the coast of Namibia .

Watch this opportunity.

This is an 'NNVC' type of potential.


T