Wednesday, August 11, 2010
Key Trend Models
Today has the potential to end the summer rally and lead-off an intermediate decline into autumn. We have seen them rally the market back into the close too often to remove the word "potential" from this analysis.
A couple of things though:
First, the Russell 2000 (low volatility settings) is the weakest of all indexes and was never able to turn up, summer rally or not. It should lead the markets lower should this downturn be confirmed.
Second, yesterday we saw the VXX_240 Trend Model reverse LONG. Today, the VXX_Daily Trend Model is close to a BUY SIGNAL, but not there yet. Should the DJIA SHORT SIGNAL be confirmed at the close today and the Daily VXX reverse LONG, that would be a strong combination of signals to usher in the long-awaited intermediate market decline.