DELL Weekly Trend Model
IBM Weekly Trend Model
HPQ Weekly Trend Model
The obvious question that arises is, "It can't be that easy, can it?"
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Plus, the past three years have seen some rather large trends, which is exactly the kind of market that this technique is designed to navigate.
Finally, note that all three of these stocks are in Weekly SELL modes.
Market Notes
Today's sharp decline out of the gate was enough to turn all Intermediate Trend Models SHORT. Below is a Daily chart of the DJIA with a potential wave count. Next key level is 9600.
6 comments:
Why sell IBM, seriously? The company is in great financial shape. If you want to make a case via chart, it's hard to, seeing as the stock has nearly doubled in the past two years.
Shorting a low P/E stock with rising earnings is a way to get killed in the market. On top of that, it's got a 2% dividend, which sets a certain floor on any downward drop. Low reward, high risk.
Plus, it hasn't gone down since the chart issued the magical "short" signal in December. It can't be that easy to prove you wrong - can it?
Full disclosure: I don't own any IBM, and didn't even in the past...
Let's re-visit IBM's price in a month.
Note that IBM can't go up much before the system reverses LONG, so your thesis about, "getting killed" is erroneous on its face. A Weekly close above 132 reverses the SHORT to a LONG, that's a risk of about 3%, hardly, "getting killed," by any stretch.
I thought you and the others might be interested in this one. http://www.expectedreturnsblog.com/2010/08/non-dogmatic-approach-to-investing.html
Allan, you just may be the only one who gets it. Well, except for those of us who know your work.
I see VXX was about $129 in march 09.
VIX about 55 at the same time.
Now both in the 20's.
Is there one with better correlation to trade?
Just today, vix is up almost twice as much as VXX.
Allan, do you seriously short stocks to make 3% profits?
I don't. Always seemed like a waste of time to me. I think the previous poster is right - if it hasn't gone down in 8 months, it shouldn't go down after another month.
wamuq.pk
Worthy of a look?
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