Monday, August 31, 2009

Too many angels

How many trading systems do you see on this sixty minute SPX chart?

(1) Elliott Wave Model

(2) Blue Wave Trend Model

(3) ATR_TrailingStop Model

(4) False Bar Stochastic Model

(5) Oh what the heck, let's add a Renko Model:

More, you want more?

(6) Market Club Triangle Model

Prices hit their initial Sell thresholds from Saturday's analysis on the 30 and 90 minute charts. The Dailies are next, those are biggies. MC is on a Daily Sell, takes 980 or lower for Weekly to follow.

Too many systems?

They are all in tune, or getting there.



Anonymous said...

I can't tell ya how much I appreciate all these strategies.

This blog is an oasis amongst mostly nonsense on the net.

Your ATR_TrailingStop Model looks like a wonderful enhancement to your BWT trading software. The combination seems to have much potential. (Might have to give myself early Christmas

RENKO is the one I find most intriguing. However, I still can't figure out how you get it to work.

I read how you incorporate your bw software & data box for enhanced entries and exits.

e.g. Renko 60min 08/31 looks to have had only 2 blue bricks that day. If I'm not mistaken there were several instances were bullish bricks appeared and disappeared.

Slow Follower :-)

thomas said...

Yeah, it keeps getting better and better.....great stuff. and yes, how about one more 'system'.... can you post a forex chart of the EUR/USD....and see how the elliot waves and market movement CORRESPONDS to the ...s+p,dow,etc... the correlation is there, has been for a long time. ...and except that my 'system' is looking for the EUR/USD to finish its upward trend to target 146 area...(145 50to 146 50 area) and that would complete the recent 5 wave up movement from the last big bottom of 140 40...which corresponds to the market low of the august 17 area.
All the other correlations are there, from the march 4 crash bottom thru the july 6 to 13 dip... to the august 3 top , etc,all corresponding to the market.
BUT.... these EUR/USD elliot waves ,in my view (which could be incorrect, but I dont think it is...) are all big A-B-C zig zags....NOT the beginning of the major 3 rd wave down (from aug 3) as Prechter has described.
the big move down from august 3 at eur/usd 144 33 area down to 140 40 bottom (which I predicted exactly) was one big A-B-C correction,followed by the current one finishing its C wave now ongoing. My target for it is 144 area. My prediction is ...from there, maybe another zig zag a-b-c,or a few of them...trying to break up another leg up to target the 146 area.
If there is a big reversal to begin the hideous wave 3 crash...I think it will begin from this area (146 euro,failing 147,that area) ...which I would surmise will correspond to the 1150 area of the stock market index...and not until october.but even then, I am looking for the rigged game to Hold the next big swings in more of the same zig zag A-B-C patterns sideways for the next half year or so.timing a crash to march low next summer.
So the whole point of my jibber jabber system is that ...I'm 'seeing' a series of big A-B-C zig zag waves in a RANGE ...which would be a good thing for all markets. my 'political conspiracy oriented' mind says this is exactly the game strategy the Game Controllers are trying to exercise and achieve...a stable holding within a range, from now thru the new year into march/april.
I very much like all the technical systems you have going on... I wish I could afford the blue wave thing... but all my analysis is happening with my complex brain,using elliot, fibonacci,trendlines,news reports,and thinking like the central bankers scheming as to how I would rig this game if I was given the task.
We are watching a market that is operating in 2 different worlds of reality 1 and reality 2...I'm trying to see what they Both look like.If I can figure out the 'reality' that the fed/central banker/government controllers are operating by as they play out this rigged game... then I can watch what they do ,and dance along with it. The automated trading systems are playing out a process of programmed logic according to their code,which works well in terms of a ...true free market...true wave logic system. but the Game controllers are the ones in charge,and what I see them creating (so far...)is a Zig Zag wave pattern in a big 'safe' range.

Anonymous said...

To Thomas above...This is so plausible, and likely. You're scaring me...

"The automated trading systems are playing out a process of programmed logic according to their code,which works well in terms of a ...true free market...true wave logic system. but the Game controllers are the ones in charge,and what I see them creating (so far...)is a Zig Zag wave pattern in a big 'safe' range."

thomas said...

'anonymous'...thanks for 'seeing' what I think I'm seeing.the problem with the vision I have right now,is that it's ok If it turns out to be correct...(I'm invested now to expect the fruits of a 'final' 5th wave the october /november time line...which might be the 1100 to 1150 area of the market.and depending on what the world political emotions are at that time, get out into cash with everything except NNVC,and wait to see what happens in the new year. thats one of my main ideas...if I'm right.
but my fear is that if I'm wrong in what I might mean that in the coming weeks, the trigger will be this canard about Iranian nuclear energy, and the sanctions the usa/israel wants to impose, the political impasse that occurs, and the ratcheting up of war mongering(just like they did before invading Iraq in 2003).If this political gamesmanship escalates and becomes real,and Israel actually attacks Iran,then This WILL BE the trigger that crashes all markets, and sets off WW3,and swine flu bio terror pandemic,and anything else you want to define soon as they carry out the insane suicidal decision.
that would spoil my investing 'vision'
but short of that scenario.... I'm biting my nails for the rest of this week,and anticipating a hold on thursday or friday, and a reversal back up in the markets friday or tuesday....and the 'trigger' indicator?...please dont laugh too hard...friday marks the next...full moon.
look at a calendar.....march 4,may 4,june3,july 4,aug 3.....ALL full one is sept4,this friday coming.The New Moons are also something to look at. they have been around the 20th of every month.
This Rigged Game,this Rigged game.... what are they trying to do next.....????
How about this idea....the China market falls like it just did....but 'show the world' that the usa market is not a total disaster... they prop up the usa market at a key support level to hold on tight and maintain its 'recovery' the face of china's fall.... what a great way to demonstrate to the sheeple investing world that 'everything is ok'...not to worry."The U.S. market is stronger than you think"
...The public investor,because of the severe trauma experienced last year in the crash, is hair trigger sensitive to any future impending what would you do if you were controlling and creating this rigged game?
One thing you would do is engineer,over and over, all the little ways to recreate confidence in the investor's mind...demonstrate that the market will hold at support....demonstrate that even when china falls, the usa market will hang in there.... that's a big one.... demonstrate that just because the market hit 1000 doesnt mean the next crash is how they...gently...move the market down...then up a little, then down a little.... to allay the fears of the sheeple investors...They will have a big task ahead, on the day when they move the market down to a critical support line , like these charts Allan just posted.... they will need to create a big bounce right there,so the public mind doesnt panic.
This is all just,you know,Rigged Game 101. I cant imagine they will not tweak the market now so that they can engineer the best possible Christmas holiday retail season. so that would be something they must be looking at in the next few monthly waves of up and down.
But as I say,the only thing that makes me nervous these days is the nasty talk about bombing Iran, and swine flu in october. They have to get past that one some how. if they want to avoid armagheddon.
no pot of gold in the back yard will save us from that scenario if they should be so insane.the world cannot afford world war 3. like Einstein said, in one of his greatest quotes.... "I dont know what weapons will be used to fight world war 3,but I can tell you that world war 4 will be fought with sticks and stones..."