Sunday, August 23, 2009

Hanging with the A

I think most of you get this, but from a few Comments, some of which never saw the light of day here, there remains some confusion about my charts and analysis.


The above chart is a Weekly SPX with two analysis methodologies applied. First, an internal Elliott Wave count which is suggesting an uncompleted cycle down, i.e. a Wave 5 is still to come to new lows.

Also included is an ATR_TrailingStop indicator (LONG/EXIT-SHORT), that signals price bias without regard to the EW analysis. These are longer term signals, not trading signals, but they do a pretty good job of staying on the right side of price direction. Meanwhile, EW analysis is suggesting where prices are in the cycle and what to expect next.




Here is the same chart, only I've replaced the ATR_TrailingStop indicator with the Blue Wave Trend indicator. As with ATR_TrailingStop, Blue Wave does a decent job of getting the prevailing bias in price direction right, but does not use EW in any way, shape or form. The are two completely different methodologies, useful in their own special ways.

I have been providing both indicators in almost all of my charts as I believe both views provide valuable insight into where prices are and where prices are going. Drilling down into smaller time frames brings commensurate insight into current and future price action.

Some of you get this, some of you are confused by it and some of you manipulate the information provided to submit snide remarks about this free commentary and analysis. It takes all kinds to make a market and I need only review the nature of submitted comments to differentiate between the winners and losers out there.

Those of you in the middle, who find yourself fascinated but confused and want to learn, hang around and be patient, it's coming.


A

14 comments:

Bernhard said...

Allan,

did you see this... its crazy.

http://www.google.com/finance?q=PINK:JEDM

news list:

http://www.stockhideout.com/small-market-capitalization/3229-jedi-mind-inc-jedm-2.html

company site (which in my opinion is TERRIBLE):

http://jedimindinc.com/

Its a company which makes products for the gaming industry and medical industry, connecting PC and Humans through the mind.

I have not bought any shares my self, but thought you might know more. Or maybe interested to do some research together.

Kind Regards,
Bernhard

Anonymous said...

Jedi Mind, Inc. (JEDM.PK)

nice jump 0.01 to a 0.25

will it continue ?

Anonymous said...

nice jump...

0.01 to 0.25

thats what we like to see

a day to late ?

Anonymous said...

Who is The "A"

Bernhard said...

yeah i'm too late. trying to get some figures and background. sent out some emails. but its a hard company to crack probably. little real info. a bunch of promises. no pr? etc... we'll see.. rumour is that it will go up to 1$ where the value is supposedly at.. but i hate rumours...

Bernhard

Anonymous said...

BTW Prechter is a "raging Bull " right now

Allan said...

Re: Prechter

Nonsense. Two weeks ago he out out a letter saying the Wave 2 rally was close to over and he is preparing for "a short for the record books" in a Wave 3 decline.

Anonymous said...

I'm finding this blog to be very exciting offering super interesting trading ideas.
(Unlike 98% of the nonsense out there!)

If anything (Allan), the only thing it lacks is forum for followers to talk amongst themselves/trade ideas....lol

I'd be interested in hearing from traders who are successfully emulating Allan's trading ideas.
e.g. Renko, 3 LINE BREAK, BWT ideas.

Personally, I can't even find a programmer smart enough to adapt this stuff to my current trading platform.

New follower

Anonymous said...

Allan:

Any way to reconcile the golden cross and or other bull market indicators (Dow Theory or other TA) that suggest a buy or near a buy right now. Some are dangerously close to betraying the forecast from Prechter, but are hard to ignore going long. I respect EW as a tool, but sometimes the internal conflict is immense. I am in cash right now and will likely be long for sure beyond 1150, but can't fight the feelin' when most indicators tell you one thing (sirens on the rocks?) and forecasting portends to clear the fog to see the rocks ahead. What so you? I think you mentioned an indicator of yours suggesting a long beyond a monthly of 1030?

Anonymous said...

I will be interested in hearing about how false signals for a bull market correlate to the EW count you have here.

Also, can you devulge your % investment in NNVC relative to your total holdings. I am suspecting the NNVC is a very low risk relative to your total acct value. YOu could trim your NNVC all-inner's out there if you state your risk level for the position. Just a thought, but then again, its your blog. NNVC is a very, veyr, very young in its quest to move this to market. Until its gets out of phase I, this stock will not move into the realms of peoples expectations. Perhaps a picture timeline of where NNVC actually is relative to market would help people also understand the need for sitting in the trenches until viable data suggests that the biotechnology is proven robust.

Just some random thoughts, not attacks. I think this falls until civil commentary.

Allan said...

I am holding some NNVC at a cost basis of 10 cents a share. WIth that in mind and adding in family shares not specifically in my name, it's still only represents less then 5% of my total stock market holdings. I think that is what you were looking for, a fair question in light of my support for the stock.

Anonymous said...

Allan, keep up the good work! Any explanations on the charts are helpful for a noob to both Elliot wave and your blog. Also love the specific trade ideas.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous,

The crash that preceeded this rally didn't go on forever. The rally that ended it won't either. Everyone wants to call this a new bull market based on the power of the rally, but a really powerful bear market rally would be expected after such a powerful crash wouldn't it?

If you are in cash and you are so distressed about returns you aren't receiving that you want to bang your head against the desk, it's time to think about going short.
If you do what everybody else is doing you will get the shaft.

New bull market or merely bear market rally, this thing has gone in one direction too long to trust.

Smiddywesson

Anonymous said...

OMG, less than 5% of total holding of NNVC, does not spell real committment to the company and a cost basis of .10 means you sold into news many times.

Really, you best change your 10K share recommendation of NNVC, or at least edit it to be no more than 5% when for many to buy 10K shares represents a much higher %.

Really!