Tuesday, August 04, 2009

Content

If you want to read someone railing about the economy or stock market, there are hundreds if not thousands of web sites to choose from. Rather then be just one more moron pontificating about the financial markets, my intent from the beginning has been to provide some original content with ideas and analysis that are unique to this site.

The charts I post cannot be found anywhere else, because no one is doing exactly what I am doing. The analysis is also different, not in its conclusions, anyone can ramble out guesses about market direction, but because no one but me looks at the markets with my eyes and my mind. It's not my conclusions that are uncommon, it is how I reach them that makes them so unusual. My integration of big picture patterns and short-term trends are not entirely one-of-a-kind analysis, but it does stand apart from most of what is available across the blogosphere.

The time I put into this blog is substantial. The markets are complicated, the aspirations here are demanding and the effort a true labor of love. I have had to develop a thick skin to deal with the wise asses who try to pick away at my ego, my analysis, my ideas. It comes with the territory.

Last night one of my readers judged my charts as,
........... kindergarten fingerpainting. The third wave of an impulsive five wave move should always be the most impulsive (most acute angle). Yours is the least so. GET was always dumb thirty years ago and still is at the top of the dumb charts.



Oh, you mean like this:


Two third waves appear above. The first from 2003 to 2007, during a rally phase. The second through most of 2008, the steepest, most impulsive wave during the entire six year range of prices on the chart. This is a monthly chart of the SPX, drawn with Elliott perfection by the same Advanced GET program labeled above as, "dumb."

Find this chart somewhere, anywhere else on the Internet, you won't. Now imagine just how much this single finger painting from my kindergarten tells us about the big picture economy and market we are in. This perspective may or may not end up being prescient about the future. But wouldn't you rather be exposed to this possibility, then rely on the relentless perma-bull crap that permeates the media and blathering stock market forums? We won't know until this pattern plays out whether or not it is correct in it's dire implications, but the psychology of this summer's ongoing rally is to dismiss this kind of bearish analysis out of hand, exactly the psychology that has accompanied every major top in the market for the past 50 years.

That's my rant for today. Take it for what it's worth. But I believe this current rally will end badly and with each passing day, that end is ever so much closer.


A

22 comments:

Anonymous said...

Allan, if and when the rally ends, and assume one has 10K to take advantage of the opportunity, what would be your recommendation

thanks, Allan, you are the best

but please don't tell me to put all 10K in NNVC, it would be a little bit too speculative for me ...

Burnhard said...

here here to Allan! :)

for the person above... buy some gold... RGLD maybe...?

what do you think Allan?

Anonymous said...

Allan, Don't let the A..holes get you down. The majority of us appreciate the time and effort you put into trying to educate us.
Thanks again for all your dedication and sharing!
Doug in ATL

Anonymous said...

Allan, I have now followed your blog for a couple of years now. The information you provide has been very informative. I am sure lots of people like myself appreciate your effort, skill and knowledge you impart to us.
I want to say keep up the excellent work and I did enjoy your response.
From Debbie in New Zealand.

T Drake said...

Allan, I was talking about that dopey chart of rising SPX RIGHT WHERE MY COMMENT WAS POSTED, not the one you chose to post today to make me look bad. Gimme me a break.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_79cfp3aq254/SndfhIvSVBI/AAAAAAAACB4/tDuAM3N5uJo/s320/Picture+1.png

Anonymous said...

Allen, love reading your stuff.. and the music as well:-).. ain't a fan of Elliot for timing signals myself but like your insights into finer trend reversal signals (Blue Wave, Renko, etc..)..

JG

Anonymous said...

Allan don't let the trolls get to you. Keep up this fine blog-best I have ever read.

Spokane, Wa

Allan said...

Tom, you made a sweeping judgment about GET based on one weak chart. You called it, "at the top of the dumb charts."

I posted the monthly chart to show you (and all) how GET does indeed recognize third waves. In fact, for artificial intelligence it does a damn good job of picking out Elliott patterns. The chart you you were referring to may not have been the best example, but it didn't relegate the software to the biased dismissal you set forth, not by a long shot.

And why should you get a break, none of the rest of us do?

Anonymous said...

You are wonderful Allan and so is GET. LOL

KM said...

yeah, keep it up. I have read a lot of blogs and paid newsletters. The info here is high quality. Thanks Allan. If these guys are so smart why are they reading your blog? And, if they are posting comments, why don't they share some real insight rather than making BS degrading comments of ignorance?

John (I-hub TheDane) said...

Allan...
What's to say but "You the man"
Many people read and appreciate but don't comment, until now.

John

Edwardo said...

Drake, having had the misfortune of hearing you dismiss all sorts of things you had little or no business dismissing, and getting a sense of just how pleased you are with yourself, I can honestly say that you richly deserve the dressing down you just received.

And knowing how you tend to look at the data, I am pretty damn sure that, not only did you not see the market crash that we had, coming, but that you dismissed, in your oh so charming manner, those who were calling for a once in a lifetime bear.

Having said that, Alan, your claim that one can't "Find this chart somewhere, anywhere else on the Internet" is rubbish. I've seen the exact same count reproduced more than a few times at various sites on the net.

Tom D said...

EdWardo,

GET was considered a loser 25 years ago. Read the old journals. I reviewed it after trying it out in the original DOS version. It's not that they couldn't have programmed it after Frost or Prechter rules or even Neely rules. It was a dumbed-down money maker for the sellers of GET from the start, I assume, so why bother to get it right? There are apparently enough lazy wannabe Elliotticians out there to make it profitable just to sell it out the door. God bless the sellers for giving people what they want.
Who can fault them in a waning capitalist era? I only fault dopey users parading it.

That chart that Allan showed of a sideways-moving third wave was JUST TOO MUCH to go uncommented about. Elliott is or isn't useful. I think it is and have subscribed to both Prechter and Neely and have their books, but GET isn't Elliott in my humble opinion.

I thought I was a friend of Allan and am certainly glad I didn't review his dog, only his dopey software.

Tom D said...

And many thanks to ALL ALLAN (ego) for blowing my cover in typical fashion. So classy that.

Redwings suck too. Go Pengs.

:)

Anonymous said...

Tom - get over yourself and your cover! What were you thinking? You can sit on the sidelines, throw rocks on the field and not be called out - dumbass! May be you need to go to kindergarten, crying about your cover.

Allan - Thank you for all your hardwork in providing all of us (who appreciate it) with your detailed analysis. I wish I had the time to learn it.

p.s. Thanks Allan's ego!

Ron

Anonymous said...

By my count, wave 4 of one less degree in the S&P occurred on 11/4/08 at 1007.51. Today's high was 1007.12. I remember looking at that target months ago and thinking that there's no way it could get there. Well now it is here, and if that wave 4 of last fall's big wave 3 decline is correct, and if Mr. Elliott's rules are being followed, we should expect a wave 5 to begin immediately to take us to new lows.
Some potentially supportive (or maybe at least mildly interesting) stuff:

Since the Wave 3 low on 11/21/08, we’ve had an a-b-c move to today’s high. Wave a = 46 CD, wave b = 59 CD, and wave c = 151 CD.

b/a = 1.28
c/b = 2.56 (pretty much exactly double)

b/a = 1.282609
c/a = 3.282609

Not sure if it’s significant or just a mathematical coincidence, but c/a – b/a = c/b / b/a = 2.0

Tom D said...

Good of you to clear the air, Ron Anonymous.

So far sentiment has remained historically very bearishly inclined after the crashes of the past year. That's not unusual after a lot of people lose their asses, and it's why most people miss bull markets for a year or three. It's also why most bull moves don't terminate when we decide they should.

I don't think any of us KNOWS what is going to happen even if do EW or even if we are pissed off that we voted for Obama.

Personally I have been a big fan of and booster of Allan's work and have met with him in person not long ago. Just don't take me out of context and dump on me.

Anonymous said...

So...um...what the hell should we do tomorrow?

ChristianL said...

Hi Allan
I have been reading your blog for about 12 months now. I've also subscribed to many different newsletters in the past, some pretty expensive and not necessarily that good either.
Your comment and analysis is original and insightful.
Wish I could buy some of those stocks you recommend. It's tricky to find a broker here the UK.
Good fortune to you!

Addy said...

Hello Allan,
I found your blog recently looking for comments on the Taylor forecastst. I noticed comments from you in 2007, do you still use his information? Thanks.
By the way, keep writing !

samiam said...

Not sure why people would bash you, but so is life. Do you really care? You do nice work and thanks for maintaining the blog.

Anonymous said...

Allan, thanks for the stock tips, you have been a hero in a difficult market. You might like this thread on Ihub: http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=3294

for additional posts on resources for 'content'.

Again thanks and today I'm buying into SRSR at .07, with Gfre money.
Hope CVM can do 1/2 of GFRE!

I for one appreciate the 'content' side of your posts!!! thanks