"First, we will have an economic depression. If the CAR, or "attack rate" (the percentage of people in the population) who get the flu is in the typical range of 40-60% of the population, then a CFR of 2-3% means one million or more dead Americans this fall and winter, or more succinctly, somewhere around one in a hundred. If your kid goes to school with 1,000 other people, 10 of them will die (on average.)
"This sort of disruption in the economy, given where it is now, guarantees a contraction of GDP of 10% or more from the top, which is the definition of economic depression. We can argue about "how bad of a depression" later."
Depression Assured? Maybe (Swine Flu)
The Market Ticker
Karl Denninger
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
The scary case for swine flu
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
3 comments:
ooooo...I don't think we will have a high mortality rate that this passage is suggesting. If this is based on the surge of flu after WWI, then we can assume a smaller impact because of our ability to notice and communicate disease trending. I think the flu will come back, but slightly on the high side for a busy flu season. We'll see though, won't we.
Hi Allan,
I read that from Karl, and even checked the comments for sources, and couldn't find any evidence for that % claim... Surprised he didn't look into more thoroughly.
Ilene
He's just another pissed off bear
grasping at straws, because his
gloomy outlook is not working.
shameless bs.
Post a Comment