Thursday, August 20, 2009

Weekly update

Previous high in SPX is 1018 a couple of weeks ago:


Meanwhile, the False Bar Stochastic is showing a nasty set-up if 1018 is not exceeded on this run up. Either 1018 is taken out, or entire rally up from Wave 3 low is retraced.........and then some.

This is a Weekly chart and Weekly analysis, not for short term trading, but for big picture outlook.


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PS: An alternative count (very similar to Robert Prechter's count):


Here, a completed five waves down into March low as Primary Wave 1 Down and now close to completing a Primary Wave 2 Up, to be followed by critical Primary Wave 3 Down.

10 comments:

Trending Cow said...

Allan:

Been toying with EMA's and SMA's. I have been looking strictly at the MONTHLY charts of SPX/RUT and found in the past tens years (I don't have further history through my account platform) that the EMA(5) and SMA(15) shows the ability to show where to enter and exit on a large, big picture timeframe. If anyone wants to backtest me, this would be stellar. Anyway, this cross of the EMA and SMA is getting dangerously close to telling me to go more bullish even considering your great analysis that would suggest otherwise. I think your call the other day of a break of 1030 is going to be about right in terms of indicating a longer term buy signal. We will see if 1018 is broken or beyond, but I wanted to see if anyone else had any longer term indicators that they are fond of here. I know this helped me diversify my retirement account (my safe acct) away from equities toward bonds in Feb 2008. I have been looking into the Renko idea lately in order to trade more on a weekly scale. Thanks and let me know (or anyone) whether this is a good hypothesis or not.

-Doug

Trending Cow said...

Can you highlight the P2 projection on this chart, hard to read it.

Allan said...

TC: That is a chart of the SPY and the projected Primary Wave 2 High is 108.40

samiam said...

Allan -

999 is history - have you reversed to the upside and gone long now?

Allan said...

samiam - first of all, daily bar has to close above 999 before chart becomes bullish. second, i don't swing trade in the way you are suggesting, i trade intraday in the direction the market is trending as per my intraday models, which although are influenced by the daily trend model, are not hostage to it.

Trending Cow said...

SPX Renko placed a red brick at close on Friday (see Allan's chart from earlier this week). Since, more bricks have been showing up. We will see if we get above 1010 for a close that would indicate a significant trend change. It can happen, but I am inclined to say that the trend is still down within the macro uptrend.

Ubreako said...

We are in an ending wave....just be nimble and not stubborn. Pivotal points make millionaires or bankrupts.....

thomas said...

I agree in principle (elliot wave) that the set up for market failure looks ripe in the charts....but I am discovering more and more , what the .... economic propaganda ministers are meaning about a "new normal" .
the more you study the rigged game, the total manipulation, watching the pieces fall in place, completely by manipulation, smoke and mirrors.... it says to me that so far, the government/Game controllers are in control of this process, and they are able to achieve whatever results they contrive. If this might be the case.... I suggest we look at the big picture of World economics,connected to politics,conflict,threat of war, threat of flu pandemic (read: bio-war) the bigger picture is telling me that there Has to be alot of behind the scenes planning and deal making between China and the USA, and other countries.... to maintain some sort of 'cooperation' in Global economic recovery.
If they are trying to establish a New world order, a one world economy, etc etc...then they Have to be establishing some sort of Global Cooperation, and this supportive cooperation HAS to happen exactly at times like these. key moments where markets have to hold at support, US Treasuries have to be bought again, Dollar has to rally, but not too much, market has to rally but not too much, its a delicate balancing act right now, and probably for the next year or so.
I expect to see recent support levels Holding up...so that the public doesnt go into panic mode. watch for the next 'stick save' and a range level in all markets to become established.

Allan said...

thomas: good observation. We can whine about it or get on the same page and exploit it. I other words, trend follow. The alternate strategy is to assume that the market forces are larger then all of the above manipulation and will eventually win out and down we go. Again, trend follow.

Spot Quiz: In the above premises, what is the common message for traders?

Anonymous said...

The message is: Market is always right - and follow the trend(Market).