Friday, August 28, 2009

Intra-day SELL

Here are my intraday charts with a SHORT trade set-up. Using SPX 1040 as a stop, this short-term SELL could turn into the trade of the year.

Too early to tell, nonetheless, every intra-day SHORT is being considered by me as a potential trigger for downside fireworks.

SPX 5 min



SPX 10 min



SPX 10 min


SPX 60 min

Just shy of a SELL signal



As someone posted in the Comments of my previous blog, Robert Prechter did issue an interim alert this morning suggesting that the entire rally from March has reached his ideal targets right here, right now and to return to 100% SHORT.

For $20 a month, his Elliott Wave Theorist might be the best available bargain in subscription market commentary.


To recap, based on intra-day Sell signals, I'm SHORT and using today's highs as my STOP.



A

29 comments:

Anonymous said...

Gulp. Guess that's why stops exist. Thanks Allan.

samiam said...

todays high or 1040

Allan said...

Samian: 1040 was more of a general threshold that anyone can use, today's actual print high is 1039.47, about a 1/2 point lower. My own trading models would close out the shorts even lower, but since not everyone has the real time set-ups that I use, I thought a nice round number just above today's high would be a safe, all-bets-off protective stop.

Anonymous said...

Short on what specefic?
Serge

Allan said...

Serge: SPX

samiam said...

Thanks Allan - where do your real time models close out the short - 1032, 1035? thanks Allan

Not sure why so many people are hostile around here. Great and informative - trading is not finite, but changing by the milisecond...some of the viewers are complete and total jackasses. By the way, I am a former Detroit Country Day Schooler! Go Blue

Allan said...

S: my models are dynamic in that their stops are always changing based on underlying price action and to a lessor extent, time.

Anonymous said...

Thanks Allan! My sentiments are in line with as to where the market is headed. However, to provide a different perspective: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/US-doubledip-recession-out-of-rb-2235260180.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=6&asset=&ccode=

Ron

Anonymous said...

When I consider all these financial newsletters and compare them with what I've been learning from ALLAN, most paid advice gives me chills.

That said, I've been following a Q service that has done remarkably well the past 2 yrs. They just went long today.

My gut tells me such an entry sounds insane given market is overbought etc.

However, Ken Fisher calls market "THE GREAT HUMILIATOR" for good reason.

Its best for everyone to follow their methods, but I wouldn't be completely surprised to see market continue up from here.

Q

Martin said...

Thanks Allan, I always appreciate your analysis.

san jose said...

Ok, so far Glenn Neely has been comletely wrong, calling for the market top over 2 months ago, predicting a 50% drop....with the market to go up almost a 1000 points since then on the Dow. So now Prechter wants to have at it now? These guys are as good as flipping a coin. If you predict a huge drop long enough eventually you are going to be right. Neither one of them show any historical track record of their stock predictions over the years.

Allan said...

sanjose: (sorry about your sharks) Neely has an extensive archive of all of his publications going back years. He has had some incredibly accurate predictions over the years.

As for Precther, he closed out an 800 point S&P win at the end of Feb, 2009, then suggested a multi-month rally to about current levels, both of which he nailed. Now he says, look out below.

Neither of these forecasters can be be ignored, nor have I found anyone better.

san jose said...

I invested in FAZ a leverage bearish ETF to follow Glenn Neely's prediction and lost almost 50% of my money. Wow, great prediction. As far as Glenn Neely's website, when I emailed them, they wouldn't provide historical trades. Just because someone nailed a couple good trades does not make them a good trader. What you don't see is all the smaller and moderate sized trades they missed. Ok, so Glenn Neely predicted a 50% drop on the S+P by the year end I believe it was on June 11. We've gone up 900 points since then on the Dow. I will eat my words if this 50% drop happens...actually more like 60% now in order to get to the levels he was predicting in June.

San Jose said...

Allan, lets make a bet right now. Right here on this forum for everybody to see. Ok, it was on June 16, 2009 that Glenn Neely predicted a 50% drop in the S+P 500 within 6 months. The S+P on June 16, 2009 was 911.97 at the close. That means by December 16, 2009 or earlier, the S+P 500 should have dropped to 456. Lets keep a WEEKLY update of this bet so I can prove to everyone on this forum that Elliot Wave analysis is a total scam. Currently the S+P 500 is 1027.81 LOL.

Allan said...

I don't think we can invalidate an entire economic behavioral model on the basis of the accuracy of a single forecast. Anyway, Glenn calls his version of economic behavioral psychology, "NEoWave" which is different from Elliott Wave.

If I were a betting man, I'd take the Red Wings to finish ahead of the Sharks again, a much more meaningful bet.

Anonymous said...

So you admit you didn't do any research and followed the advice of someone you don't trust to be better than 50% accurate (also knowing he doesn't have historical trade records for your own due diligence)...
If I were a trader, I would not allow a position to move 50% against me and then blame this certain someone for my trade -- that to me sounds like a bad bet

Anonymous said...

Just so you know Anonymous poster above me here, Prechter wants you to go in early in order to be able to short this thing. He can't call tops and neither can Neely, and I think they would tell you so. EW takes patience to trade intraday, so stick to the end of the waves. Neely has more confidence in his long counts than the extreme short term, so again, note it and watch the price action to make YOUR OWN decision. I admit I fell hostage to counts in the past, but some setups just are not worth the risk.

san jose said...

Nobody on this forum wants to bet huh? A lot of traders on this forum tout Glenn Neely's amazingly accurate predictions. Where are they now? How come nobody wants to back up their words?

Anonymous said...

Not so fast Allan. No possible confirmation unless we get a closing red brick. Next week.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p59388071002&a=171819650

As my old commodity broker said, "It is the close that matters. Interday is just noise."

- C (cramar)

Anonymous said...

San Jose - its not a matter of backing up one's words or not. If anyone could so precisely and accurately predict and forecast the market, we would all be Warren Buffets! The fact of the matter is we do our best and we take into consideration what the so called "experts" say. Now, if one does not do their own research and blindly listens to some, for example YOU! No one is to blame but you! You should have done your homework! The market is not for the faint at heart and those who want to chase it or listen to someone without doing any work.

So, please get a life, take your betting to Vegas. If you want to play the market, without doing your homework/research you are best suited for slot machines, not crapps or blackjack!

Ron

Anonymous said...

dude, I will take the other side of your bet !!!

Allan said...

C - I hope to have the time this weekend to assemble a blog listing all of the aspects coming together to suggest a hard down September.

Even if not, there are sufficient indications to suggest a top of some degree is upon us. The additional red brick should come early next week and a trader can await it's appearance for confirmation, or as I have done, begin establishing a Short position on the earlier trend shifts as happened today.

This move will be so monumental, exact entries Short will hardly matter, as long as they are made eventually, with whichever length trend an individual deems sufficient for confirmation.

san jose said...

Anonymous- you need a screen name if you want to bet.
Ron- get a life yourself. I have developed my own trading system since then and am trading well. Tons of theories put out here, but very little investigation and follow up to see if they really work. If we want to be good traders we have to look at the results of different methods. Don't turn into a cry baby because someone challenges some theories on here.

Anonymous said...

San Jose, you are hiding behind a "screen name", at least I used my real first name! As for being a crybaby, I think you need to look at yourself in the mirror, you are crying about your 50% loss because you didn't do your own homework. If you had your own system that works so well, why didn't you use it or may be you did, either way, you lost 50% and are crying about it.

If you want to talk stocks, lets do so. If you want to place othe bets, complain, blame others and cry about your 50% go somewhere else.

Peace out!
Ron

Trending Cow said...

Genuine question san jose, if you have your own trading system and are trading well, why do you come here to challenge what others on this board discuss? If we EWavers or trenders or anything, why do you care? I would actually low it personally, if you could say, "Hey guys, the wave count doesn't correlate to my trading methods and this is why." I think people would love to hear your perspective and become better because of our collective knowledge here sometimes turns on lights in our minds. I would love it if you would share your success against Ewave or Neowave.

manper said...

My "bet" is: SPY will eventually retrace to around 980, then another leg up. I see a bear trap coming. Who wants to short strongly without new bearish fundamentals?

manper

Trending Cow said...

Manper:

I also cannot fathom us dropping much below or at all below 667. I don't necessarily think that Bob's views will come to fruition. I think we take a breather here for the next period up to December before we head up again. People can disagree on this situation relative to what the waves say, but our economy is far more diverse and complex than in 1929-1932. We have diversified into a multifacted economy over time. I think the Fed recognized that threat of an extreme deflationary situation and a failure of the lending system. I am not going to take issue with their methods but it bolstered the economy how ever fragile it remains. The severity of a breather in the next months to next year (if possible in a wave 3 scenario) will depend on the confidnece of the Fed signals. If they unwind too quickly, the problems will start to come back too soon, but they are damned if they don't start trimming somewhere on inflationary fears. I have some bias here, but the next leg's stopping point (whatever the count emerges) will likely coincide with QE withdraw and Fed actions this fall. FV of stocks, I think, are near the 850 on the S&P, so a fall to there is a fair drop spot for the optimistic mind. The trend is starting to slow here recently and money is slowing into the market since the last drop to 978 S&P. We will see if renewed buying comes out, but I think the market is due for some reality here and I think everyone knows it (which usually means it won't happen), but my "bet" is 850 and then another leg up. I saw an interesting comparison on 1974 to todays rally and it is uncanny. This rally surges again and then stalls side ways to down slowly to complete the cycle. We will see, I think we will understand a whole lot more after November.

manper said...

I meant SPX around 980.

manper

manper said...

Trending Cow: I see your point.

On the other hand I just think that "the trade of the year" is a little...late. Some people (maybe too much)are shouting "It´s coming!" and I say: "Let it come, prove itself, and then I will act". Tomorow, next week, next month, who cares? The "mistake" I see is people getting now short expecting that "the trade of the year" is just around the corner. There is no "trade of the year", there are only good or bad trades. Untill now anyone who went short because of the "trade of the year" is getting... well, we all know.

I do not follow EW or Neowave because I don´t understand it and I haven´t found anyone that could "prove" that wave A is wave A and not another wave. But maybe it is my default.

manper