Sunday, November 07, 2010

Warp Drive

It's been about 10 months since beginning the trend following quest via private email subscriptions and occasional forays here on the public side.  I am days away from shifting the entire kitnkabooodle over to my own domain with public and private portals. We are beta testing now, that's how close.

In the words of everybody's mayor,  Ed Koch, "How am I doing?"

Let's start with the Gold and Silver Basket.  Here are the current real time positions and performance of the most recent signals from the portfolio of gold and silver stocks and ETF's:


The only difference between this table and my subscriber table is that in the subscriber table there is a column which contains a reversal level at which the current position will reverse.  The average return for all positions shown is +50.36%   The Weekly version of the Gold  and Silver Performance analysis shows and average return of +109.21%.

Turning to individual stocks and select ETF's, here again is the real time positions and performance table of the most recent signals, leaving out the reversal levels:


Here the average return for all positions is +19.06%, while the Weekly average performance return is +49.36%.

Finally, let's take a look at what I call the Major Market Trend Models: SPX, QQQQ and VXX.  These models also include intraday positions, based on hourly and/or 240 minute time frames. Note the significance of the Daily models:



Simply adhering to the Daily Trend, not only in this table, but in all of the above tables, adds up to a nice edge in trading.  Yes, I think we have something that works.  Now let's trade it.

Past results are no guarantee of future performance.


I learned about the Law of TANSTAAFL from a psychology professor at the University of Michigan, circa 1971:

THE AIN'T NO SUCH THING AS A FREE LUNCH

The returns and results set out above come with some costs.  First, you have to keep up, know where the price reversals are on every position you are in, or want to be in.  Second, you need to have the conviction to pull the trigger, a much easier said then done undertaking.  A few weeks of following these models work their magic usually takes care of that business.

Finally, everything here comes under the umbrella of a subscription to these trading models.  This is what you give to me in exchange for these models, offering them, maintaining them, analyzing and tweaking them.  Some extras get thrown in along the way, including some speculative stock gems that come my way as well as my own macro view of financial themes and especially how they can be exploited for outstanding gains, all in concert with the models.

As for the new site with all of its bells and whistles, near real time charts and models, a private forum to ask me questions and/or for subscribers to banter back and forth about what opportunities they see and are acting upon, the price of a subscription will remain the same, at least at first.  But as we grow and participants in the forum increase, the price may also increase as the best way to maintain value for existing subscribers.

It's been a great ride so far, but we are about to enter warp drive.

A

13 comments:

Anonymous said...

Allan,
With all due respect,

YOU THE MAN!!!

Thanks. The subscription sevice is worth the money just for the commentary.

DT said...

Allan -
I am hoping to join you on this ride by using the Trend Following Model to power my 401k profits into warp drive.
Thanks.

Anonymous said...

SRSR flipping to long today

Anonymous said...

monday nov 8

silver stock MISVF,Minco Silver, skyrocketed 20 % today

its one of my recommendations
I mentioned many times here in the past
but nobody reads what I write

now MISVF, like most mining stocks, are way overbought.

the train has long left the station for any bargains......


t

Anonymous said...

I do T!

t said...

thank you ,kindly....

t


........................


MISVF latest today still rising ,now up 25 % in one day !!

I have no idea why it jumped like that.


Canadian/China silver miner....a good idea from the start.


Other canadian/chinese ventures,in china....

ICMTF
SVM
JINFF
MGH
EGO

are the ones I like and own....all overbought at present....waiting for any real correction to buy more.
EGO had its correction a few weeks ago,as did the others..

hard to know now,watching, wait,hope for,and forecast the next buying opportunity.

The feeding frenzy energy is building in the precious metal mining stocks....not a mania yet,but the interest is building.....especially the geopolitical interest from foreign billionairre buyers...now a force in moving the market.... its game changing.

future corrections may not happen as deep as in the past. but there ought to be at least Some sort of real correction from these big waves up.

Its just a question of trying to buy at the best price.

ICMTF,as an example, the time to buy was in the summer around 1.15
Its current price now is around 1.90

40% pullback takes us to the 1.40-1.50 area.

where I'll buy more.

EGO corrected to 16.34
3 weeks ago

I expected closer to 16.00
and a good correction,like those in the past wouldve taken it down into the 15-15.50 area

Now the latest wave up from 16.34/16.40 topped the other day at (easy math) 19.37.....3.00 up
which gives a 50 % fib correction back to the 17.90 area....there is big support zone at 17.70-17.90 area

This could be the next best place to buy or buy more.

EGO chart showed a clear 3 wave ABC correction from its mid september high down to 16.34 in late october.

Elliott wave suggests that the current wave surge Up has broken the downtrending prior wave, establishing it as an ABC...now the upwave becomes wave 1 going up. Looking for a wave 2 correction pullback now ,offers the 50 % fib zone around 18-17.60 area for the pullback......waiting for it now. watching it.

For first time buyers 18 would probably be good.

every stock needs to be examined in fine detail,technically and fundamentally.

t said...

One more silver investment that looks good to me is the new Sprott silver trust.

PSLV


just became available a few weeks ago. opened at 10 with a quick bottom to 9.75

and surged steady up to the present at 11.00

I'm looking for a pullback to the 10.60-10.50 area to buy more.

Anonymous said...

monday nov 8 end of day

Nice move in the last 2 hours today for NNVC
retesting the top at 1.40

after holding strong at 1.30

next few days will be interesting for NNVC

it seems to be all about support/resistance lines

Anonymous said...

NNVC moving up smartly on increased volume ...

go NNVC ...

Anonymous said...

Tuesday morning nov 9

NNVC is looking pretty good moving up to retest the resistance at 1.42

Important to notice what strength it shows here,or.... weakness and falling back down.

Anonymous said...

Whats your take on NNVC today?

Going up?

Maurice said...

Allan, if I sign up for the subscription, how does that work? I mean, is it billed monthly, does it auto renew or...am I missing the terms somewhere?

Allan said...

Maurice,

Right now subscriptions paid through PayPal and automatically renew after each 30 day period. When everything is migrated to the new site, payment will be through traditional credit cards, visa, master card, etc. and will also automatically renew each 30 days. As always, subscribers can cancel at any time with no further charges incurred.

A