Wednesday, November 10, 2010


Here is yesterday's end-of-day commentary as it  went out to subscribers:

Trading Notes

It was about this time in early November, 47 years ago, when our lives were so innocently headed for the single most devastating shock to our society in modern history.  To be followed on an even grander scale just 38 years after that, September 11, 2001.  So when I saw the market start to sell off this afternoon, in quiet, anonymous bidding, it occurred to me that this just might be how the next one starts. An innocuous late day sell off that we have been conditioned by now to ignore, a few 60 minute models flipping SHORT, again, something so meaningless lately we hardly ever report it.  Then even quieter trading into a quiet close and no once even considers that it may be different this time.

My worlds were rocked in 1963 and again in 2001.  One event shaped the first half of my life.  The second event is shaping the rest of my life.  Where-ever we are at any one time in this 4th dimensional continuum of being, it remains invisible to these third dimensional eyes.  As it must be. 

But there is a tether that brings it all together.  The financial markets and how we as a society behave as one was described by Robert Precther in his book, "Socionomics." Just a few short weeks ago, Prechter wrote that we were engulfed in the greatest financial top of all time. Each day that it doesn't arrive, is just one more day that it is closer. So when I see an innocuous little sell-off creeping into a late and largely forgettable Tuesday afternoon, I stop for a moment, think back 9 and 47 years ago and then start paying a little more attention.



Anonymous said...


A very timely post! As you have said many times before we will let the trend model show us the way. I had to close out my short VXX position because of vacation but it was very profitable!

By the way, are you a traveling man Allan?


Anonymous said...

Honestly, Allan, your devotion to RP's doomsday scenario is pathetic. A former subscriber, I've followed his recommendations since 1983 and he has been so wrong on so many markets so many times that I am stunned he still has any subscribers left. I commend you for your trend following've made more $ for your subscribers than that "articulate incompetent" refer could dream of...

Anonymous said...

I agree. A true trend follower doesn't bother with making predictions. RP is making predictions and I don't think they belong on this blog.

Anonymous said...

Off Topic...but NNVC is really doing well!

And to the poster who has commented about Allan's doomsday scenario....Allan might be correct...

You would certainly be patting him of his shoulder and saying what a great help he has been.

Do not beat up the messenger...

Market looks pretty gloomy today.

A said...

Hey, cut me a little slack boys. NNVC triggered long a few days ago at 1.08. Today its high was 1.60. That's 50% in a couple of days. If I also like Prechter, or Dylan, or SImon or MIlton Friedman, what the heck, let me have my vices. Better yet, subscribe to my work, its the highest form of flattery (outside of you know what, but she reads the blog and I don't need any more grief.