Tuesday, October 19, 2010

US Dollar - UUP

The US Dollar is inversely correlated to most markets.  Thus a rise in the dollar correlates to a drop in stocks, gold and anything else that is priced in dollars.  Lets take a look at a chart of UUP, the bullish ETF for the dollar:


UUP Daily Trend Model

Five waves down, a break-out gap above the trend regression channel and an imminent LONG signal from the trend model.  If UUP runs back to just the late August high at $24.22, it gains 7.00%.  But, with minimal premium on UUP calls, a 7.00% rise will likely generate triple digit gains on in-the-money call options, subject only to the call's expiration month.  I wouldn't look at any expiration closer then December, but next March might make the best cents (sorry)  giving plenty of time for the dollar and UUP to turn up and run.

A



6 comments:

jetstar said...

Thank you very much! would hope that you will have plenty of articles or such, and more! Your article helped me a lot! Thanks

JD said...

Here's a question Allan, but to ask it I need to start with the basic tenet: As a trend follower,take every trade, within of course the limits of your risk capital and money management rules.

The question then is that if UUP is inversely related to the SPY, would I hold off taking UUP as a trade until SPY sets up on the Daily model?

Would that be proper logic applied to get a high probability trade within the rules of trend following?

Anonymous said...

where is Allan and all other posters ???

Anonymous said...

It's like arriving at the party late and everyone went home....hello?
Did everyone pack it in, cash in your trades, and went on vacation ???

Allan said...

I only post when I have something of substance to communicate. Its not just an ego thing like you see so much of in the blogosphere. Everyone seems to have to comment on everything, diluting their blogs to dribble. Sorry, not for me.

A

Anonymous said...

what is your take on UUP now? how low can uup go?