Thursday, October 14, 2010

Something wicked this way comes

I just have to post this chart.  The market last topped in October, 2007.  But look here, the financials as represented by XLF, peaked in February, 2007:

XLF Weekly Trend Model

This year,  XLF reversed SHORT in May and remains SHORT, although a little underwater as of today. But as shown on the above chart, the SHORT signal of early 2007 was also underwater for several weeks before the XLF came crashing down with a 71% decline.

Another omen that something wicked this way comes.



Anonymous said...

yes. Am thinking big SMkt pullback sometime in and around 10/26 (Bradley Siderograph turn date), but possibly beginning this Monday. This should last until around the Elections--expectation of Republican tightening.

added NNVC today . . . it is time to look at the "basket of biotech" as related to influenza season now soon here.

Godspeed Allan.

Digger said...

Your title reminded me of an essay with the same title from Darrell Castle, the Constitution Party's VP candidate in 2008, outlining what was the only knowledgable response on monetary reform from any national candidate I heard that year. I have to note I do not agree with much of their platform, but I wish Biden and others understood what Castle does.


Counter Insurgency, Deficit Terrorist Unit

Anonymous said...

If the market was moving according to the true fundamentals of elliott wave theory and wave action

Prechter's wave 3 crisis call of august 3 2009 would have occurred at that time.
His wave counting was correct. Global economic fundamentals and geopolitical tensions were as bad as they are now what went wrong.
I am inclined to theorize
that something 'special' happened to the stock market system in the summer of 2008. It wasnt just the implosion of Lehmann Bros, it was a comprehensive well orchestrated plan carried out which achieved something like a revolutionary change in the government/banking/financial power system that previously existed and what was generally called the 'free market'.

What emerged after september 2008 was what they now call the 'new normal' market .
The difference is like night and day..
and my sense of it is that the market no longer moves in elliott moves by the power of the government system ,the POMO and PPT system, the Fed money printing system, the rigged market system, however you want to describe it is being rigged and engineered and manipulated and controlled by the invisible hand of government /banking/global power system,or systems, that essentially took control of the system in the summer/fall of 2008.

and all through the year 2009,and then in january 2010 when doomsayers were proclaiming
"this is it ! this is the big one now..." the correction reversed in february and the new normal market propelled to a higher high ,topping in late april.....and then the doomsayers cried out ..."ok,now This is it, here comes the big one..."
only to see once again, the new normal market, operating under some other kind of energy,directed by some other kind of "market sentiment" decided that S+P 1010 was enough of a bottom and ...

such goes the new normal....and still, all the while, doomsayers keep looking for the reversal moment of doom....I do too... we're all looking for the sky to fall...

it surely must come in the head and shoulders zone around S+P 1150....ah, but it didnt.
well, how about S+P 1180 ?? any day now.
And when the next correction does happen....will that be the "Big Collapse of Doom" ? or something else that is less of a disaster?

People need to stop and think.

Think about what kind of power structure the government and the fed and central banks and corporate industry have

or redesigned, or
reengineered, retooled.

It may be ,in fact, the 'new normal' has some kind of genuine control of the stock market , global economies, and aside from a few disagreements among nations....some sort of master plan is being carried out

and that plan,whatever it is, has been,so far,

sidestepping,circumventing and disregarding


and simply does what the government wants it to do.

I love the idea of elliott wave theory,and I count waves all the time. and they still work up to a point.

But the big picture appears to be ,so far, still under the control of the wizard behind the curtain. and so

the market goes up.because they want it to go up.

It will reverse when they want it to reverse.

and it will fool everyone who fails to see the control the government has over the market.

in this new normal world.

which I'd guess began in september 2008.

IF there happens another giant crash, it wont be because Elliott wave is predicting will be because the Great Global Government Power ...

wants it to happen.

Thats my theory. and of course, I could be totally wrong. but at least I'm thinkin.

Anonymous said...

I tend to agree with this last comment that the markets are being manipulated, which distorts at best, or invalidates at worse, any EW count. Where I disagree is that the markets will not necessarily go up as long as "they" want it too, nor will it crash because they want it to. Yes they could crash it today, but if they keep on pumping eventually it will be unstainable. The laws of the universe cannot be broken. Every Ponzi is doomed to eventual failure.

The beauty of what Allan is doing is that he has figured out that it is not profitable to try to predict the market, but in closely following the market with a trending tool. It doesn't matter if EW is playing out perfectly or the markets are being massively manipulated, since his system will get him on the right side regardless. To me, that speaks of genius just as much as Elliott's discoveries.

- cramar

JD said...

Agreed cramar, and just to prove it, I've cleaned up on Allan's trade of the week TLT. 80% gains on half of my Puts, letting the other half ride a little.

Anonymous said...

Yes,Cramar,I agree with what you said in response to my post....

but to add to what you said"if they keep pumping the markets up,it will become unsustainable".... so of course, I'm guessing they would also engineer,or at least control the corrections,which is one of my points.

just like the triple stick saves we saw at S+P 1040 in late summer that reversed market back up to where we are now.

I expect to see the next correction play out,but I expect it to be kept under control by the 'controllers'. Like what happened this past year. A normal, 'new normal' correction lets say, 200 points, from 1250 back down to 1050 in the first quarter 2011...a repeat of 2010 action.

and establishment of a stable Range zone ,from 1050 to 1250 .... while doomsayers will be yelling "wave 3 ,here comes wave 3"...

thats my guess as to a possible engineered wave structure.

As you said, it cant keep going up forever, ...I expect to see the engineers reverse it down ,when they decide the time is right.

(it isnt moving because of retail investors or hedge fund managers)

and I expect to see them keep the descent under control and the PPT do its magic stick saves at the right time...just like we saw the triple bottom saves at S+P 1040 this summer , which preceeded the current wave to the present.

It almost looks like magic when it happens doesnt it?

thats the feeling in this 'new normal' market world.

and yes, I also agree with your point that regardless when the engineers move the market...Allan's signal system will somehow manage to capture most of the move.

Anonymous said...

All the while market has rallied up to new highs....

NNVC stays stuck at 1 dollar

Even ISCO popped the other day.

Maybe the public investor is starting to lose interest in NNVC.....I wonder

THIS is where good management needs a good public relations team to keep interest alive.

Does NNVC have that kind of good management ?

or are they sleeping at the wheel

oa92000 said...

Allen, Could you do one ATR chart for XLK?