Monday, October 25, 2010

SPX Weekly

The SPX_Weekly charts below have embedded upon them low and high volatility trend models.  The volatility settings determine how sensitive the trend model is to price volatility.  Higher volatility settings react to smaller moves in price to reverse trend, whereas the lower volatility settings require more price movement before reversing. 


SPX Low Volatility Trend Model


SPX High Volatility Trend Model


Both trend models do a fine job of capturing major trends in the market.  The trade off is better entries/exits from the higher settings, but better accuracy and less trading from the lower settings.  In either case, the trend models add a tradable big picture advantage.




8 comments:

Anonymous said...

so....now you believe we're going higher?

Allan said...

It really doesn't matter what I believe. The Daily S&P Model is up 14.43% since its early September Buy signal. It's the Daily Models that carry the weight around here. Yes, the more conservative application of the trend models would await Daily and Weekly confirmation, but that doesn't negate the proven integrity of the Daily Model.

Anonymous said...

OK, Allan -
2 items

After ~1 year of reading your posts and responses to comments, I'm in on NNVC. 10K shares at $1/share. Diligence included e-mailing Dr. Seymour with a couple of questions. Thanks for introducing me to NNVC.

Now I'm contemplating your subscription service.

Initial question: Will the e-mails you send with buy/sell recommendations generally result in me trading every day, or will the time frame be - on average - longer?

Apologies if this has been answered on an earlier post I haven't looked at.

t said...

As a subscriber,I can say that Allan's email updates and service is very conscientious...usually 3 to 5 emails a day....updating what he thinks is important...and always sharply tuned to the system's signal indicators.

I havent been using it to trade "every day" ,it can be used for swing trades as well, and he also provides some picks for options,which I dont(cant) do at all.
The great value is in the signal indicator,which he provides steady awareness of.

My own personal 'due diligence' in researching various stocks to invest in has yielded some different stocks than he has chosen for his model portfolio, some similar,but the ideas he expresses,are consistent with the theme of preparing for that wave 3 to come.

If I'm not misunderstanding....the main focus he ascribes to is the idea that the market is in a bear market, currently awaiting a crisis ,'Wave 3' that would take markets heavily down , starting at some point in the not too distant future.

The big signal is what we are waiting for. while the government seems to be propping up the market ,and keeping it from collapsing at the present time.

Allan gives more credence to Prechter's Elliott wave analysis than I do, but its a judgement call.

I personally give more credence to the power of the government to manipulate the phony market system as it has been doing since the 2008 crash.

The charts he posts speak for themselves,with the special indicator showing what the right side of the trade is to be on.

Allan said...

The emails sent out (soon to also be posted on a subscriber-only section of the new web site) update all of the trend models, most of which are Daily and Weekly models. The Daily models usually trade every few weeks, while the Weekly models usually trade every few months.

It's the intraday models on the QQQQ, SPX and VXX that will trade more frequently but there too, trades usually last days. The latest VXX_240 minute model last traded on October 18 with a SHORT signal, which is up about 10% in a week. The service also covers hourly models on the SPX & QQQQ

t is right about my market commentary, it incorporates some Elliott Wave set-ups, but, the main focus and all trading is based solely on the trend models---mostly because they work better then anything else I've seen in the past 20 years.

It's 11:00pm in Arizona and I'm going to bed.

A

Anonymous said...

Allan - Thanks for the response. I will give your subscription service a go. It's 6:53 AM in Colorado and I need to get to work.

T - Thank you as well. Also, I find your hypothesis on the 'phony' market interesting. Perhaps at some point I can learn the specific resources you point to as proof.

T said...

.....'the phony rigged market'...I like what Zero Hedge(tyler durden) says about it.
I like what J.S. Kim says about it.
I like what the writers at Casey Research say about it.
I like what Marc Faber says about it.

I like what 'Hat Trick newsletter'(jackass) says about it.

and on and on....

Everywhere I turn, with just basic searching online, I'm finding analysts who are seeing what I'm seeing.


"proof" is a funny word you used.
You mean like the proof of the suppression schemes that JPMorgan and the big banks have been doing to manipulate the price of gold and silver ,proof that GATA has been uncovering for years...that kind of proof?

you mean 'proof' of the kind of market manipulation done daily by the PPT and POMO to keep holding the markets up?

The way I saw the 'evidence' of the rigged game was by watching the markets do their thing for about a year.

If a person cant see it they shouldnt be investing or trading at all...thats my opinion .

Anonymous said...

SPX stuck @ 1193 ?? are we ready for correction?