Thursday, September 23, 2010

Before the deluge

A great Jackson Browne song, before the deluge is what the following S&P weekly chart is suggesting may be the resolution of the past five months of pathetic sideways price movement:


Note the sideways pattern in mid-2007 lasting from August to December. The resolution was a 50% haircut in the SPX.   Fast forward to 2010 and we see a similar sideways pattern lasting an almost identical 5 months.  Notice how the SPX Trend Model remained SHORT in both instances, early in both and in retrospect, quite handy in the wake of prices eventually breaking down in late 2007.


The window is open for a repeat performance.


A

12 comments:

Anonymous said...

Just curious,what about the Russell 2000 . can you look at that one for comparison ? they look different to me.

Digger said...

UBS'a Klemmow had some useful thoughts about current correlations.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/The%20World%20Explained.pdf

I agree with him about banning investments in commodities. Pricing by intrinsic value would deliver more stability than the easily manipulated pricing by supply and demand factors which the faulty classical economic thesis imposes.

Digger
http://moslereconomics.com/
Counter Insurgency, Deficit Terrorist Unit

Mike said...

as usual....great analysis Allan...

-Mike

Mike said...

that said....I use lower volatility on my weekly...

-Mike

Mike said...

scratch that.....higher...

-Mike

Anonymous said...

NNVC is approaching the $1.00 support level.For those of us who trade this stock above our core position,this could be an opportunity to add more should it hold.
However, should it break through the $1.00 support level, it could easily decline to the $.80 of December,2009.At that point,the market would be telling us that it does not believe its story.

I believe in NNVC's technology, however,it is gut-wrenching when the the market has chopped 62% off its May 3rd high of $2.64.

I look forward to NNVC beginning it 4th and final bounce up to the recent highs.


Allan, any comments.

Allan said...

re: NNVC

I think we were spoiled by the run up from 0.80 to 2.40 in the first few months of this year. Expectations were born of continuing parabolic appreciation. Many of us suffered through 2009's trading range of 0.60 - 0.80 with occasional dips below 0.50. This is the nature of the beast, a developmental stage biotechnology company on a fragile exchange subject to outsized excitement along with irrational disappointment.

My time line on this company, on this stock, is for unprecedented appreciation and development by 2014. The road there will be filled with potholes, like the one we are in now. Nonetheless, the destination will be worth the ride.

A

Anonymous said...

on the September PR, they said they have 18 months of cash, will they be able to show something in the next 18 months ...

Anonymous said...

Thanks Allan, for your thoughts.
I am so in the red,it's disappointing.
All the hub about making the $3.00 zone, everything looked so great, with Dr. Harris' tests.

Still believe, will not waver from my holding, but with less excitement.

Anonymous said...

In other real news of the world......

'Lindsey Lohan Released from Jail'

try to stay zombies, sheeple america.

Anonymous said...

how red are you ???

Anonymous said...

Dear All:

as of now, after have analyzed the US economy , I am bearish on everything but me.

The party is over, I win. You lose.

JK