Thursday, March 26, 2009

In the muddle


With prices meandering up in the middle of the channel, there isn't much new to add to previous analysis. A break of either channel line will lead to a very profitable few months. Which way?

Well, that is the question, isn't it?


A

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

Allan, had to comment. I didn't want your graph to go unrecognized or underappreciated.

Have a great weekend all!

-PSU Eric

Anonymous said...

I sense this deep conflict inside you; whether you want to be an oricle or historian.

Don S.

Dave said...

One trait of an oracle (correct spelling) is that of a great historian.

Lasertrader said...

Allan:

Refererring back to your post about the E-Wave analysis fomr earlier in the week, the SPX closed the week out cleanly to the North of the channel.

On the way down you were placing a lot of emphasis on the E-Wave count and you mentioned that if we were to close out the week breaking out of the channel that we have seen the bottom and are on for quite a sustained rally.

Are these your thoughts now that we have closed out the week?

Bruce

Allan said...

Bruce: I hope to cover this with a new post this weekend, but in case it gets delayed: Everything appears to be suggesting a significant multi-month rally is ahead, but that is now the consensus thinking as shown by extreme sentiment indicators. I can't believe a rally will ensue when everyone is sharing that expectation. Something is amiss here. The only safe way to play this is to follow the trend, for now up, but be ready to bail and go short if key trend lines and channels are broken to the downside. Muddled markets are Wave B's, to be followed by devastating Wave C's. It's a time to be nimble, with one eye glued to the exit door.