Wednesday, March 18, 2009

Gold Buy

Wave 4 Buy Signal, confirmed with False Bar Stochastic. Stop just below previous low.

Those are some very long bars that came in Wednesday after the Fed announcement. I will be very surprised if these bullish bars don't prove to be harbingers of some big moves and not just limited to the Gold markets.



Anonymous said...

its hard to pay attention to tradeing when march madness is on. hope my nova wildcats kick some butt.

rob g

Anonymous said...

I agree with Alan on the long bars point the way of the trend.

Way back when I read John Hill's book. The one he did on a type writer and he drew the charts by hand. He had all these rules pertaining to daily bars, like inside days, outside days, reversal days, etc.

We tested those daily bar signals in the bond market and found only one or two actually worked or pointed the way of the trend the next 5, 10 and 20 days. It was days that had range extension and the close was in the top/ bottom quarter of the day's range or the market closed above/ below the previous day's high/ low.

My primary count is the Dow is in a of 4 of intermediate 5 of primary 1.

What worries me about that is the market has taken out a couple of strong resistance levels (7174 and 7405), it looks like the wave count up has wave extensions and all the days of range extension on the upside.

The market should come off here a good ways (below 7000). If it doesn't, it will be another sign my primary count is wrong.

Gold is in a long-term bull market.


Anonymous said...

Hi Allan,
I added Capital Gold per your review 5 or 6 weeks ago. I'm up about 40% in the worst bear market ever. CGLD has a buyout offer from Gammin Gold. Any thoughts on this. Also please mention a few more junior golds. Thank you for your generosity. Joe/NYC

Anonymous said...

you mean I miss CGLD, WTF ...

Anonymous said...

If that count is correct then the upside should be finished. W1 ended at spx 805-ish, and w4 cannot enter into the territory of w1.

But this rally has been so sharp, makes me wonder if it's impulsive and that maybe Allan's GET count is correct and that we have a huge retracement rally coming. I'd hate to see that preferred count bite the dust because all the waves fit in place so perfectly on my charts.

But just for kicks I have another count which coincides with the count on the 240-min GET chart below, with us completing a w3 up and just now entering w4 down. If this count is correct, then we have some more downside to come before w5 comes along and blows through spx 805 and invalidates that preferred count.

If I believe in the preferred count, perhaps it's wise to take some shorts now with a stop not to far above the recent highs. If those highs get taken out then the preferred count is probably incorrect. If I believed in the second count I'd probably be waiting for this correction to complete before getting back into FAS to catch the last spike of this amazing impulsive wave. Decisions, decisions...

Anonymous said...

Still trying to figure out why the Commercial gold traders (almost 3:1 short as of 3/24) and silver traders (2:1 short as of 3/24)are so bearish. Looks to me like both are in wave 4 A, B, C corrections...about to blast off.

What am I missing? I hate to second guess the big boys.