The folks at Elliott Wave International are pretty certain that the equity markets are in a multi-month Primary Wave 2 Up. I understand their analysis and have a hard time arguing with it, but, will anyway.
Here is my Nasdaq Weekly chart going back to the beginning of the Bear Market:
Please note both Waves 2 and 4 on the above chart. Wave two is a simple affair. Wave four is much more complicated. This satisfies the Rule of Alternation, which suggests that if Wave 2 is a sharp correction, expect Wave 4 to be a sideways correction, and vice versa. (Frost and Prechter, The Elliott Wave Principle, page 63)
I've drawn two regression channels on the chart. The big one is down from the actual start of the Bear Market. The smaller one is a Wave 3 channel, down from the end of Wave 2. While prices have risen to break out of the smaller channel, they still have a long way to go to the top of the bigger channel and still haven't crossed the mid-section of the big down channel.
Despite all the bullish hoopla recently, the Nasdaq has basically gone sideways and appears to be quite overbought. Below is a Daily chart of the Nasdaq:
Near the top of it's sideways channel and an overbought stochastic.
Below is a bearish wave count, suggesting that Wave 4 is about over and the next big move is down:
I know this analysis is in the minority right now. I know a lot less about the nuances of Elliott Wave then the big guns in Gainesville. But these Nasdaq charts are cautioning me that all this bullish sentiment out there ("largest monthly gains in history") is a fade.
Something to think about.