Sunday, February 22, 2009

Where Art Thou?

O Romeo, Romeo, wherefore art thou Romeo?

In the most famous scene of the play, Romeo stands unnoticed beneath Juliet's balcony as she engages in a fantasized debate:

What's in a name? That which we call a rose
By any other word would smell as sweet;
So Romeo would, were he not Romeo call'd,
Retain that dear perfection which he owes.

DJIA - Monthly


Be there any doubt that the tide has changed? Fifteen years of prices paint a clear and unambiguous map of where we have come from and where we are going. Simplicity has its virtues.

DJIA - Daily


Without that title. Romeo, doff thy name,


DJIA - Daily with Projections for Fifth Wave


By and by, I come—
To cease thy strife, and leave me to my grief.


A completed fifth wave decline? That's what the above chart is suggesting could be happening, but the charts below argue that more grief lays ahead.


DJIA - Sixty Minute


On the above chart, check out the oscillator on the bottom of the chart. Looks to me like it hasn't bottomed out yet, meaning lower prices still to come.


O, I am fortune's fool!

DJIA - Sixty minute - through the lenses of two methodologies
Two charts, on the left Blue Wave, on the right Advanced GET


The beauty and magic of two star-crossed lovers. On the right is the same wave count as on the single chart above, on the left is the same wave count again, this time superimposed on the Blue Wave indicators. To keep things understandable for all, let's just look at the single main Blue Wave indicator, capitalized ("Capulet?") as Red and Blue bars, Red for Bearish-Bias and Blue for Bullish Bias.

On the left Blue Wave Chart, see how well the colored bars coincide with my tentative wave counts. Each impulse wave lower is signified with an almost perfect correlation with the red bars the counter-trend rallies that are tradable show up as blue bars.

Finally, note that the last two sixty minute bars are colored blue, this was Friday's mysterious 200 point rally just before the last hour of trading. Sheer manipulation, or the beginning of a counter-trend A-B-C rally as a second wave, just prior to a powerful third wave decline?

Two very excellent tools, working together to guide the trader throughout the days and weeks of market ups and downs. Find something that works, then use it.

Sweet, so would I,

Yet I should kill thee with much cherishing.
Good night, good night! Parting is such sweet sorrow,
That I shall say good night till it be morrow.


A


14 comments:

Anonymous said...

Allan,

How does the GET software compare to Mr. Prechters analysis? Is the GET EW better than Mr. Precthers? If I recall hasn't Mr. Prechters timing over the last few years been questionable at times.

mlomker said...

EWI is saying the exact same thing in the latest update. I've only been with EWI for the last 3 months so I can't comment on the last few years.

GET has had the count wrong a few times since I've been reading this blog. I believe that the spike up on Friday was a wave 4, not an A. The answer to that question be evident rather quickly on Monday.

I also suspect that the wave 2 that Allan is talking about (I think it is 4) will be larger than suggested. My projections are that we'll go to 837 on Monday and that'll get the bulls excited by a 'double bottom'. It isn't but it'll be enough impetus to create a week of chop.

If I'm wrong then I'm wrong (it's not like I'm not short).

mlomker said...

>we'll go to 837

Oops, meant to say that we'll go down to 737. Comments that can't be edited are tough for me. :)

Anonymous said...

mlomker,
I have never understood EW. Seems so easy after the fact. This is from an interview with Mr. Prechter.
Q: So you see a crash as imminent -- is that the right word?
A: I think we're in one now, but we're in the very early stages. The same thing is true of a depression. People say, well, we're not in a depression, and there are no bread lines and all that. But those are symptoms of the end. And the time to understand what's coming is closer to the beginning, and that's where I think we are.
This was from July of 2002. Market bottomed at 7000 then doubled to 14000 over the next 5 years. He could be right this time.

Allan said...

So you folks would prefer to discuss R.N. Elliott and his disciples, rather then William Shakespeare or Edward De Vere? Just trying to inject some culture into the banalities of technical analysis. Overseas markets are in rally mode, making my a-b-c Wave 2 count more feasible tonight. Unfortunately, the Academy Awards are on in lieu of Desperate Housewives. All I can say is Big Love, new episode on HBO. Isn't it rich?

Anonymous said...

Hey Allan,,
for your 60 min chart:
So with a,b , c wave this is wave 3 rather than wave 2, right? Waves 1 and 2 have already been completed?
Thats the way you show it in your first 60 min chart, the other 60-min shows a different perspective.
Thanks
TD

Allan said...

Perspectives will be described in detail in the upcoming, "A Mid-Summer Night's Dream."

Anonymous said...

Allan:

Your cycles chart calls for a clear and large magnitude bottom on 2/26.

Today is Monday 2/23 that means you have THREE days for the market to drop a LOT.

Do you stand by this analysis?

That's a big drop and not much time to do it.


GO STANFORD CARDINAL!

Allan said...

Stanford: What do you mean, "Stand by" ? The analysis was given nine days ago. The market in that time period did decline sharply. Is there more decline ahead, or are we in a window of a temporary low? See my post from Sunday.

Anonymous said...

wowee! Bring on the bottom! I can't wait!!

mlomker said...

"I have never understood EW. Seems so easy after the fact."

After a few months of study I'm finding it rather easy before the fact. If I confuse one fractal for another then it just means that I make lower profits by exiting early. I rarely lose money with it--it is *that* powerful.

I don't think it can be traded without the use of quality software. A human also has to interpret what the software is saying by comparing it to your favorite indicator(s). I use proprietary indicators from EOTPro but there are many others that will serve the purpose.

mlomker said...

"Market bottomed at 7000 then doubled to 14000 over the next 5 years."

The further out you try to predict the more difficult it is. I only need to see 3-4 days out to market time my retirement account. I only need see a few hours ahead to daytrade.

Anonymous said...

weeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!! All you sadomasochists raise your hands and go 'weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!'

Anonymous said...

yes anonymous jerk, allan is the dark lord, it is his evil intentions that will ensure you die broke, ashamed, afraid and alone.----sort of like the first time you had sex.
weeeeee!