Friday, February 06, 2009

GFRE - update

GFRE is up 30% today on news that it has agreed to exchange newly issued stock to reduce debt. The significance is that the exchange is valuing GFRE shares at about $1.00 per share: 21 million shares to reduce $21.3 million in debt.

GFRE is currently trading at $0.39 per share.

What do the creditors of GFRE know that the marketplace doesn't?








A

19 comments:

Anonymous said...

I did some research on the government's effort to hold up the markets by buying stocks and futures.

Those who believe this has been going on, call it the Plunge Protection Team.

You can google it.

There is no proof that I can see, but the speculation has been going on for years, and after watching the Dow the past few months, I now believe that is occurring.

The Plunge Protection Team has been written about by many writers. Here is one.

http://www.gata.org/node/4158

Gosh, many banks are the walking dead. If they went belly up, we'd be looking at a total financial collapse and likely a depression. If the Fed/ Treasury and Congress will openingly do all they have done, at this point, I wouldn't be surprised if the fed is buying stocks or futures when the Dow starts to plunge.

I'm sure CNBC is giving all sorts of reasons why the Dow is up 150 points, but this consistent rally on bad news or worse than expected news is unusual.

I suspect there is something else going on, and I think those who trade this market need to keep in mind it may not be a free trading market.

Likely, it has become more like the currency market which has been managed by the central banks for years.

Alex

Anonymous said...

Allan,
Does this mean that GFRE has lot more upside than the initial targets?
thanks as always.

Anonymous said...

Seems to me that the creditors accepted restricted stock as repayment with the clear belief that those shares would be worth MORE than a dollar in 6 months. It's kind of like repaying with options.
Question is: Did GFRE sell them a bill of goods, or do the creditors really know something. Volume is up, but price is drifting back down.

What do your TA models say about this one, Allan?

Piecemaker

Allan said...

Re: GFRE:

$0.405 triggers weekly Triangle BUY today; EW targets remain $0.65 -$0.75 range

Anonymous said...

How do you know, ahead of time,when a weekly Triangle trade is going to be triggered?

Anonymous said...

Allan,
Appreciate yr TA on TGB in the short term

Allan said...

Re: Trade Triangles = 3 period highs/lows (any time frame)

Re: TGB - still looking for a move above $1.00, Copper and Gold prices supportive.

Anonymous said...

Hah! You're EW theory just got fu*ked. See??? News trumps all!!!

Anonymous said...

What news?

A simple weekly MACD could tell you that the markets were getting ready to break out. Very simple and much more effective than EW. Prechter has been calling for a crash since 1990.

Problem with EW is that it's too hard to read the charts... too subjective and prone to error. It might work, but nobody will ever know since everyone reads the charts differently.

Anonymous said...

You're kidding us, right? A 20 day moving average was saying buy too? Where were you a few days ago telling us the MACD was flashing a buy signal and we all had to buy the market?

News trumps all. The news was bearish.

Alan is at least putting his opinion on the line, and most of the time he is right.

Let's hear your forecast a few days before and stop playing Monday Morning Quarter Back. I can tell you today the Steelers were going to beat the Cardinals.

There are two more places to look to sell this market, in my opinion. One is the SPX resistance area of 886 to 896. 886 is a = c of (2) of 5. 889 is the 61.8% retracement and 896 is the 66.6% retracment of wave (1) of 5.

After that the next area will be from the daily chart in the 1006 to 1008 area.

Let's see how the market trades next week. Let's hope for a early week rally into the 886 to 896 area.

Alex

mlomker said...

"Let's hope for a early week rally into the 886 to 896 area."

Monday morning, I'd imagine. I'm going to add to my position at 887.

Anonymous said...

Hmmm let's see. Allan and his EW vs. Warren Buffet and his proven ability to make gobs of money (through all the good AND BAD TIMES). I bet with Mr. Buffet. By his metric, this is a good time to go long. Guess we'll see eh?

Anonymous said...

Has the market digested all the bad news yet???????

1. 500 Billion in commercial real estate loans maturing and up for refinancing in the next 3 years.

2. what's the size of the consumer credit card market...trillion dollar plus??? And with all the securitization that has taken place and the unemployment rising, there is bound to be an implosion and finally

3. the implosion of the 50 trillion dollar derivative market. word on the street is that Morgan Stanley is up next!!!

Oh, not to worry, the Fed will use the tax payers to bail. Alright Bernanke, crank up your printing presses...full speed ahead!!!!

More and more, it looks like this recession is going to have a long drawn out bottom!

mlomker said...

"By his metric, this is a good time to go long."

You're talking about the same guy who sold a gigantic option position right before the crash and lost his shirt on it.

People like to bash Prechter for going to cash in 1999 but that was better than going long at the high.

Anonymous said...

If debt is going to blow up the U.S. financial system, the leading indicators will be Gold, the dollar and interest rates.

With inflation at 0% and Gold at 912, obviously investors are concerned in that market.

Rates are starting to rise, but I'm not sure if it is due to a thawing of the credit market or too much debt for the savers to handle.

I suspect the 10 year will get back to its 3.50 to 4% range soon, and that will represent a 100% thawing. If rates continue to rise after that, it could be a sign all this debt is finally taking its told.

I'm sticking to my long-term Dow target of 6800 to 7187.

Alex

mlomker said...

"I'm sticking to my long-term Dow target of 6800 to 7187."

I'd imagine we'll level out wherever the p/e makes sense. We won't discover that level until all of the bad debts are cleared. If the administration goes messing with mark-to-market then it'll just slow that process.

Anonymous said...

WOW! I just lost all respect for you Allan. I checked out the "great news" by NNVC. Nothing but a fluffy update. How long before they collect all the people they need to perform the independent study? How long do the study? How long to get results and report? 6-9-12 months or more? GEEZ! I thought you weren't the pumpster type. Now I am wondering if you are planning to take some profits soon.

Allan said...

Thank you for your insightful post. It's contributions like yours that makes this such a rewarding experience, truly, you are the epitome of getting back so much more then one gives. As for my shares of NNVC, as I have said so many times, I will hold every one of my shares until they fall to zero, or rise to $200, whichever comes first. In the meanwhile, don't be such a stranger.

Allan said...

Thank you for your insightful post. It's contributions like yours that makes this such a rewarding experience, truly, you are the epitome of getting back so much more then one gives. As for my shares of NNVC, as I have said so many times, I will hold every one of my shares until they fall to zero, or rise to $200, whichever comes first. In the meanwhile, don't be such a stranger.